M J R

Leeds United, Football, Golf, God, 🍻 with the lads & occasional investing

[M J R @rozzerboy]

Yesterday I got to marry the love of my life ❤️

[M J R @rozzerboy]

@NormanBrennan 😂Embarrassing

[Nigel Farage MP @Nigel_Farage]

If you vote Reform you will not have an illegal migrant deportation facility in your area.

We will hold migrants awaiting deportation in constituencies that vote Green instead.

You get what you vote for.

[Nigel Farage MP @Nigel_Farage]

A huge win for Reform in Salford last night. The Labour vote dropped by 30 points. This is the best sign yet!

[Leeds United @LUFC]

🚀 "THAT IS ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT!"

[Leeds United @LUFC]

👊 The REAL United!

[Doc Malik @DocAhmadMalik]

Please explain why Norway has a booming oil and gas industry and ours is dead?
This isn’t incompetence. It's treason.

[M J R @rozzerboy]

@OliLondonTV Absolutely 100% correct 👍

[M J R @rozzerboy]

@GoodwinMJ This has to be AI 🙈

[RAH @RAH00084]

#AVCT is the first ever company to see a Phase 1 drug achieve removal of the cardiac dosing limit.

External validation doesn’t come much clearer.

The CEO’s confidence levels are now at 11 for good reason.

pre|CISION. works.

[Christina Coughlin @coughlin582]

We are thrilled to bring you these important clinical updates. We continue to learn with every patient treated just how powerful the pre|CISION platform is and what it can do in the clinic. We #AVCT continue to move forward. Onward.

#HopeWithoutCompromise
#LetsDoThis

[Myles McNulty @MylesMcNulty]

I thought I’d provide some much needed context to the many doubters in the UK investment community, about the potential upside for Avacta #AVCT.

Two weeks ago, the FT reported that Merck $MRK is in talks to acquire NASDAQ-listed biotech company, Revolution Medicines $RVMD, for between $28bn and $32bn.

Just like AVCT, RVMD is a “precision oncology” company. It has a ‘platform’ – the Tri-Complex Inhibitor Platform (read up on the detail here: https://t.co/N9j45YXYdu ) – which could be used to generate drugs that could ultimately target as much as 30% of all human cancers.

Key points to note:

- RVMD has three drugs in clinical trials. The lead candidate, daraxonrasib, is currently in three Phase 3 / Registrational Trials. The next two, elironrasib and zoldonrasib, have both generated strong data in P1/1b trials, and RVMD plans to commence registrational trials for each later this year. RVMD also has a fourth drug, RMC-5127, that is shortly to commence a P1 trial (first patient not yet dosed).

- RVMD has zero products approved by the FDA, or by any other regulatory body worldwide.

- The company is therefore pre-revenue.

- RVMD has zero major commercial partnerships ongoing. No major financial backing from Big Pharma, no licensing out of its clinical assets. It has a couple of clinical collaborations (e.g. with Summit Therapeutics in June 2025 for combination studies), but no big money deals.

Now to compare with Avacta:

- Avacta’s pre|CISION platform could generate drugs that could target as much as 85% of all human cancers. 90% of all solid tumours which comprise 90% of all cancer cases; and at least 15% of all blood cancer cases, which comprise the remaining 10% of all cancer cases.

- Its lead clinical drug, faridoxorubicin, has one drug in a Phase 1b trial. It is likely to commence its first registrational P2/P3 trial in Q3 this year. Its second asset, AVA6103, is set to commence a P1a trial in the next 2 months.

- The company has zero approved products and is pre-revenue. It has no major commercial partnerships in place yet.

A key point to note with regards to the pre|CISION delivery platform is its superior flexibility. It can deliver virtually any anti-cancer drug in existence to those 80-85% of all cancer cases, be they small molecules, biologics, etc.

The second key point to note about the pre|CISION platform is its unparalleled targeting ability. It is so targeted that it can both dramatically reduce side-effects of highly toxic warheads, and simultaneously dramatically boost efficacy. It’s not one or the other.
Indeed, earlier this week the Avacta CEO publicly stated,

“There are no other technologies that can deliver cancer treatment drugs directly into the tumor at the concentrations that our payloads enable without causing highly toxic side effects.”

In RVMD’s first registrational trial for daraxonrasib, the first patient was dosed in October 2024. Assuming timelines are hit, Avacta’s lead drug AVA600 is therefore a little less than two years behind RVMD’s lead drug, in terms of clinical development.

Analysts covering RVMD estimate between $8bn and $10bn of annual peak sales for RVMD’s portfolio, by 2035. The single analyst for Avacta that has published AVA6000 sales estimates, has peak sales of $5bn by 2035.

So, Avacta’s first drug, a first-generation pre|CISION molecule using a half-century old chemotherapy as its warhead, is forecast to generate peak sales of at least half that of RVMD’s entire portfolio.

Avacta’s second molecule, AVA6103, is light years ahead of 6000, in terms of potency and targeting. It could likely generate peak sales of several - possibly many - multiples of what 6000 could.

At its current 54p, Avacta has a market cap of $316m. So, the upper end of the rumored range of Merck’s offer for RVMD ($32 billion), would price RVMD at 101 times Avacta’s current valuation.

This is why holders are excited about Avacta at this level. A real world example of 100x uplift in valuation is being played out on NASDAQ right now.

Avacta is presently circa 2 years behind RVMD in its clinical development timeline. But its platform is much more broadly applicable (a TAM almost 3x larger), is much more flexible, and is much more targeted.

Many conclusions could be drawn from all this. One might be that commercial deals for Avacta are not at all necessary to deliver immense returns for shareholders.

Another might be that the UK investment community does not have the capacity to price Avacta correctly (most likely due to a combo of not-deep-enough-pockets; a dearth of interest in backing pre-revenue / unprofitable companies (we are dinosaurs!); and general apathy to learning specifically about cutting edge biotech)

Perhaps AVA6103 going into clinic will change all this. Perhaps a major commercial deal with Big Pharma will.

But this rumoured offer by Merck for RVMD - a company that is not only pre-revenue, but does not even have an approved product to sell - should be immensely encouraging for Avacta holders.

[Avacta @avacta]

Avacta is pleased to announce U.S. FDA clearance of the IND application for the Company’s second program FAP-Exd (AVA6103), the first pre|CISION peptide drug conjugate based on the highly potent topoisomerase I inhibitor, exatecan. https://t.co/FDCFSO7FG1 #AVCT

[M J R @rozzerboy]

@Ophidian18 🙈👏

[Matt Van Swol @mattvanswol]

This is one of the most heroic acts I’ve seen in my life.

It’s so rare to see true courage, this is it.

[Rupert Lowe MP @RupertLowe10]

Do we just sit and wait until it happens again in Britain or do we act, now? Brutally cracking down on known Islamic extremists and those preaching hate - removing vast numbers from the country. And I mean vast.

My message to Starmer is this - WAKE UP.

Act before it’s too late.

[Sophie Corcoran @sophielouisecc]

A worker on £35k a year will be £1,400 poorer because of the freeze in income tax

Yet a family with 5 kids on UC will be £10,000 better off.

This is the most unfair budget in my lifetime

[Bisontraveller @Colinbreeden]

@SkyNews @BethRigby Zero credibility 👇

[M J R @rozzerboy]

@nickdixon 😂

[Nigel Farage MP @Nigel_Farage]

We will teach Starmer a lesson at the ballot box.

I am more determined than ever.

[The Royal Family @RoyalFamily]

🇬🇧 🇺🇸 A magnificent Ceremonial Welcome at Windsor Castle has marked the start of the US State Visit.  

The King invited President Trump to inspect a Guard of Honour formed of three regiments of the Household Division: the Grenadier Guards, Coldstream Guards and Scots Guards, ahead of a Rank and March Past in the Quadrangle at Windsor Castle.