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@DerivativesDon @sidprabhu That is THE question. LPs and PBs furiously trying to figure that out by tomorrow end of month id imagine

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@taobanker Let’s see how long the window is between financial markets realising and politicians realising …. 🤞

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@policytensor Or is there something I have missed which gives you confidence there has been a real about turn in their stance ?

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@policytensor I agree on implications IF Iran was to capitulate short term, but ongoing SoH hits (3 in last 24h), new threats (sinokor 1st nov) as well as timing (why accept something which is essentially unchanged from U.S. now and help trump?) make me skeptical there is any change… yet

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@policytensor Sorry I wasn’t clear. I wasn’t referring to this specific quote it was just the latest post you’ve made so thought it was easiest place to ask re evolution of thought process in last 24h

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@EURestructuring @anchovycapital @junkbondanalyst It’s not just kemone, most of them are small positions…. They just weren’t initially

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@Fibonazzo There’s no way these guys can handle their debt burden. Another restructuring coming that impairs bondholders and wipes equity this time …

Fair enough if a short term bounce play but this is a dog

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@WitteWitte30 @Mark_IKN Did he say he sold ? That seems like a bit of a mischaracterisation

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@WestRedLakeGold We have our answer …

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@WestRedLakeGold Its odd that you are talking about q2 months later when everyone is expecting q3 imminently ? Are you reminding us that last q was bad … to offset a poor q3 ? Or is it deliberately confusing ?

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@policytensor I’d imagine there is some conflict over timing re elections. Iran probably don’t want to do bibi a favour by escalating tensions before the Israeli election but they likely don’t want to do Donald one either by delaying until after mid terms. Gives a window of 4/5 days

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@realKunalAShah Will this be looked back on as time magazine/economist cover contra signalling ?

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@policytensor Well BNO is total return on the front contract and that return depends on the roll yield each month (positive whilst curve is backwardated)… so it’s not as simple as linear relationship, it’s linear plus an average of curve inversion through the time you are measuring it

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@Steviewondermna Tbf only stevie wonder could interpret those results as bearish. It’s a sign 🙏

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@AaaRatedHY @anchovycapital Ok so on that maths they shouldn’t have restructured twice in 2 years… how’s that going ?

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@AaaRatedHY @anchovycapital The 30pt was more a finger in air because without cap raise arini would definitely still own half a yard of this dogs dinner and 30pt would be a fair trading value !

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@Senteuk1 @policytensor Well the point he’s making is even doing the supervised shuttles in Oman strait is now “doing something”… and US can’t not do that or oil deficit goes up by 12-15mm/bbl. But my point is this already became a violation yday/today .. so why no response until post close ?

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@policytensor But why wait until the weekend ? Doesn’t that suit the admin to have weekend warfare ?