👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems

Decoding geopolitics through macroeconomic systems.
Macro → Cash Flows → Behaviour → Geopolitics.
Energy • Trade • Finance • Technology

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

Most people follow GEOPOLITICAL headlines. I track MACRO systems.

If you understand this, you understand macro 👇

https://t.co/ttliRUqaHx

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

🧵 Why Macro Comes Before Geopolitics

Most people think geopolitics drives the world.

It doesn’t.

👉 Macro does.

[QuantBreadth | Market Internals @QuantBreadth]

India’s inflation data is flashing 2 completely opposite signals right now.

📉 CPI: 3.48%
📈 WPI: 8.30%

Retail inflation remains contained.

But upstream price pressures just exploded.

Historically, WPI tends to transmit into CPI with a lag of roughly 3-6 months in India, especially when fuel & energy lead the move.

The real story is not where inflation is today. It’s where it may be heading next.

This chart explains everything 👇

[All India Radio News @airnewsalerts]

🪙𝐍𝐒𝐄 𝐋𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐜 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐩𝐭𝐬

The National Stock Exchange of India (#NSE) announced the launch of Electronic Gold Receipts (EGRs), a new segment aimed at bringing greater transparency, efficiency and formalisation to India's gold market.

🪙𝑾𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝑬𝑮𝑹𝒔?

EGRs are dematerialised securities that represent ownership of physical gold, which is stored in the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) accredited vaults and held electronically through depositories.

Each EGR is fully backed by physical gold and can be traded on the exchange, integrating gold into the formal financial system.

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

@TommiPedruzzi 36

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

@alifcoder Ebook

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

"Confirmed 1% hike" is wrong on two counts — current rate is 0.75%, the move to 1.00% is 25bp, and BoJ hasn't confirmed anything. But the August 2024 reflex is the real signal: a 25bp BoJ move transmits more global risk than a 75bp Fed move because it routes through four systems at once — currency, carry/liquidity, sovereign debt, and global collateral. Magnitude is small. Transmission is huge. Watch credit and EM, not Nikkei — that's where positioning is now exposed.

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

@TommiPedruzzi Doc

[Sanjeev Sanyal @sanjeevsanyal]

GoI launched the Bharat Maritime Insurance Pool for Indian flagged or controlled vessels backed by a sovereign guarantee

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: The IMF just warned the world is on the brink of recession.

IMF cuts 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and warns of a close call for a global recession if the Iran war gets worse.

HERE ARE THE NUMBERS.

Base case: The war ends quickly and oil averages $82 per barrel. Global growth comes in at 3.1% for 2026. That is already 0.2 points lower than what the IMF predicted in January.

Adverse case: The war drags on and oil stays around $100 per barrel. Global growth drops to 2.5%.

Worst case: The conflict esclates, oil spikes further, and financial markets start to crack. Global growth falls to 2.0%.

That level has only been hit four times since 1980, the last two were 2009 after the financial crisis and 2020 during COVID.

Before the Iran war even started, the IMF was actually going to upgrade its global growth forecast to 3.4%, thanks to AI investment, lower interest rates, and less severe tariffs. The war erased all of that.

The IMF chief economist also warned that if the war continues, central banks may have to raise interest rates much more aggressively than they did after COVID.

The IMF and World Bank expect $20 to $50 billion in emergency support will be needed for low income countries already being hit by higher energy costs.

Oil near $100 is already doing damage. The question now is how long it stays there.

[SMQKE @SMQKEDQG]

‼️ ETHEREUM FACES GROWING CONCERNS AS TOKEN STANDARDS FALL SHORT OF ISO 20022 COMPLIANCE NEEDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION‼️

“…existing Ethereum token standards fail to meet key regulatory requirements, such as ISO 20022 compliance, which is critical for institutional payment adoption.”😶‍🌫️

Documented.📝👇

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

The global financial order just got a major software update. ⛓️💻

A quiet "rewiring" between 2025–2026 has merged traditional banking with blockchain infrastructure. From the US GENIUS Act to SWIFT’s new ledger, the rules of wealth are now written in code.

Key takeaways from the April 2026 Report:
🔹 Stablecoins are the new digital dollar plumbing ($280B+).
🔹 Ethereum is emerging as the world's default settlement rail.
🔹 SWIFT is building its own blockchain with 40+ banks.
🔹 Tokenisation is digitising everything from bonds to real estate.

This isn't just about tech; it's a battle for financial sovereignty. 🌍📈
#DigitalFinance #Macro2026 #FinTech #Ethereum #Stablecoins #SWIFT #GENIUSAct

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

The global financial order just got a major software update. ⛓️💻

A quiet "rewiring" between 2025–2026 has merged traditional banking with blockchain infrastructure.
From the US GENIUS Act to SWIFT’s new ledger, the rules of wealth are now written in code.

Key takeaways from the April 2026 Report:
🔹 Stablecoins are the new digital dollar plumbing ($280B+).
🔹 Ethereum is emerging as the world's default settlement rail.
🔹 SWIFT is building its own blockchain with 40+ banks.
🔹 Tokenisation is digitising everything from bonds to real estate.

This isn't just about tech; it's a battle for financial sovereignty. 🌍📈
#DigitalFinance #Macro2026 #FinTech #Ethereum #Stablecoins #SWIFT #GENIUSAct

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

India is officially the world's "Resilience Hub" in 2026. 🇮🇳

🔹 Manufacturing: Surging on "China+1" shifts & massive state incentives.
🔹 IT: Navigating visa hurdles by leading the global AI & Cloud pivot.

The structural shift is real. Check the breakdown below. 👇
#Economy #India #Manufacturing #FinTwit

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

@MJTruthUltra Call it a new financial system or an AI bubble. The fact is the USD is losing dominance and multipolarity is on the rise.

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

This is not about an index. It’s about risk movement.

👉 Credit stress ↑
→ banks repackage exposure
→ risk moves outward

If CDS exposure reaches retail:
👉 The system isn’t breaking

👉 it’s redistributing risk

Risk doesn't disappear. It propagates.
Similar situation below:

[Sanjeev Sanyal @sanjeevsanyal]

A culture of blunt truth telling is critical for the success of any large system - company, or country. The moment the common metaphor becomes “ornate”, it is a system in decline.

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

@ankitatIIMA This is the kind of stuff hedge funds use to do.

Now retail investors can bet against private credit, too.

Michael Burry did similar betting against the US real estate market during the 2008 subprime crisis.

[India First Post @ifpost47]

IFP Exclusive -

Is fake news harming India's foreign investment prospects?

Speaking anonymously to our team, a Hong Kong-based India fund manager made startling revelations on how foreign news outlets are actively weaponizing their financial networks to control foreign investment into and out-of India.

A thread 🧵

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

@india_plus_ This is not just a currency story.

👉 Global liquidity tightens
→ EM currencies come under pressure

But Reserve Bank of India:
👉 curbs speculation
→ stabilizes flows

Result:
👉 rupee absorbs the shock better

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

@DrdhimanBhatta1 @sjlazars @AstroCounselKK @ActusDei @BuzzingstockH @BNuthan @cmagurvinder @drrevanthreddym @ProudIndian0605 @ghoshspeaks1983 @Mayukh35748976 You forgot this
It’s Finacial Insulatiom at play.

[👉 Rupesh | Macro Systems @rupsaw]

@GoldTelegraph_ That's why it was already planned but made to look like a sudden move towards the Clarity Act. The plan is “dominance must go on”. But the world is now aware.