@100trillionUSD Leaning towards different this time. The Oct β25 peak was apathetic. The ISM and BTC have an unmistakable correlation. ISM is rising and BTC will rise with it. Also, we are right on the 200 WMA, which has been a reliable bottoming indicator. Accumulate & HODL
@BillAckman Until the Iranian people rise up and change the direction of their government it will be a constant game of whack-a-mole when we suspect their nuclear program is nearing weapons production.
@100trillionUSD Fundamentally it makes sense. Ethβs value proposition has only begun to be realized. When the world of investments is fully tokenized ETH will be the central transaction network for global finance. I donβt understand the comparisons to BTC. Itβs oranges and apples IMO.
@therationalroot There was never a four year cycle for BTC, it was the business cycle all along. Do a comparison of BTC and the PMI and the correlation is unmistakable.
@robin_j_brooks@tanvi_ratna I think the stakes for a Russian blockade in the Baltic is quite a bit higher than the Straight of Hormuz. Irans ability to thwart the blockade has been significantly degraded by the surgical strikes conducted by the US and Israel. Russia would come out swinging.
@100trillionUSD I'm a believer, S2F or Bust! However, BTC ETF's have changed the price behavior which is now more tightly coupled with the business cycle. Overlay a chart of BTC with the PMI and you will see what I mean.
@ulrichspeck@tanvi_ratna Iβm not to sure. I donβt think the US lifts a finger to help Taiwan. Iran will fold like a card table. And the benefits would be enormous. The only problem with NATO v Russia are nukes. Putin doesnβt have the $$ or resources to win that conflict without them.
@0xChainMind Compelling chart, but I still believe we have not seen a cycle peak for the 2024 halving. 4 yr BTC cycle is now tied to the PMI. When it peaks, BTC peaks.
@100trillionUSD Thank you, your analysis is always thought provoking. Is there something about the price action or stock to flow that is leading you consider that the current more gradual uptrend may replace the typical 4yr boom and bust cycle?