MSTR to $3,800 per share.
Assumptions:
$1B/month preferred issuance only
11.5% preferred cost
30% BTC CAGR
1.32x CEBE mNAV, no expansion EVER
common stock sold to pay dividends
zero common stock sold to buy Bitcoin (LOL)
Start:
843,738 BTC
573,757 common equity BTC
163,144 CEBE sats/share
$158.97 implied price
Year 10:
1,424,686 BTC
1,287,186 common equity BTC
285,605 CEBE sats/share
$3,836.60 implied price
That is 24.1x in the model.
The insane part?
Preferred balance goes from $15.5B to $135.5B, yet senior claims fall from 270K BTC to 137.5K BTC.
Why?
Because fixed fiat claims get vaporized when measured against a compounding Bitcoin treasury.
This is Ownership Acceleration.
CEBE sats/share rise 75%.
Common equity BTC rises by 713K BTC.
Bears see “debt” and “dilution.”
The model sees fiat claims being dragged behind the Bitcoin monster truck at 3 AM while Saylor is doing laps around the sovereign bond market.
Even the bearish assumptions make me a very rich man.
CEBE is the scoreboard.
Bullish Strategy.
$MSTR just made a statement that changes everything.
No more convertible debt. Ever.
Phong said it verbatim on the earnings call.
They're not just stopping new converts.
They're buying back the existing ones and wiping them off the balance sheet completely.
Because $STRC has been so successful they no longer need them.
The new capital structure is already winning.
@hillery_dan
BTC is right up against the 200 day exponential moving average with a trigger today of the the negative 3m real yield sign which has historically been the time to own BTC. I wrote a paper this week for 22V and subscribers titled Running Hot into Scarcity. I expected a regime shift into a negative real yield environment with uncertainty around the Fed as they also are forced to run the debasement hot.
The earnings call for @strategy explicitly stated a shift in Strategy and it could be awesome.
TL;DR -> Sell High Cost Bitcoin, Book Taxable Loss, Use $4B to buy back $MSTR and Converts, boost share price and mNAV, crush shorts.
GAAP volatility ≠ taxable event
Realized BTC sales = taxable event
Previously, Strategy could show huge GAAP gains/losses from fair-value accounting without necessarily triggering CAMT because unrealized appreciation alone does not create taxable income in the same way as realized gains from selling BTC.
Now, if they sell high-cost-basis BTC first (FIFO/HIFO strategy matters), they can intentionally realize losses.
Sell 50,000 BTC at ~$80K = ~$4B proceeds
If average basis was ~$100K+, they realize roughly ~$1B+ actual capital loss
That realized loss becomes economically valuable because it can:
Offset realized gains elsewhere
Reduce future CAMT exposure
Create tax assets / shield future taxable income
Free up billions in liquidity without increasing leverage
Then the important second step:
They can redeploy the cash into higher BPS-accretive actions.
Buy back undervalued MSTR (if mNAV low)
Retire low-conversion-price converts
Fund dividends / USD reserves
Reduce float and future dilution
So the realized loss itself is not “good” because EPS changes. EPS alone doesn’t mechanically help the stock.
The value comes from:
converting high-cost BTC into liquidity + tax assets + denominator reduction.
That is the shift. $MSTR $STRC
BTC is no longer treated as untouchable inventory. It’s becoming an actively managed capital allocation asset optimized around Bitcoin per share, float control, taxes, and capital structure.
STRC is a Bitcoin vampire squid wrapping itself around the bond market’s face while analysts ask if the squid has recurring revenue.
We are still so early. BILLIONS will flow into Strategy.
The next two weeks are going to BLOW everyone’s MINDS.
Personal Finance
Many investors are skilled at reading company income statements and balance sheets, yet few ever apply that same analytical discipline to their own personal financial metrics.
For years, I’ve been tracking a handful of these metrics (the ones in bold) every month. Then in January, I started tracking the full set. What I’ve found really useful is feeding them into Grok along with my personal numbers and asking it to grade me on each one. I highly recommend tracking them month-over-month so you can clearly see your progress. If you’re ever unsure how any of the metrics are calculated, just ask Grok.
→Total Liabilities
→Total Net Worth
→Liquid Net Worth
→Debt-to-Income Ratio
→Debt-to-Assets Ratio
→Savings Rate
→Emergency Fund Coverage
→Credit Utilization Ratio
→Retirement Savings Rate
→Liquidity Ratio
→Housing Expense Ratio
→Burn Rate
→Cash Flow Ratio
→Passive Income Ratio
→Life Insurance Adequacy Ratio
→Debt Payoff Timeline
→Discretionary Spending Ratio
→Financial Independence Ratio
→Income Diversification Index
→Credit Score
BILLIONAIRE ARTHUR HAYES JUST SAID THE FED AND TREASURY ARE ABOUT TO ISSUE DEBT BY THE TRILLIONS AND SEND #BITCOIN OVER $1 MILLION
GLOBAL MONETARY RESET. IT'S COMING 🚀
Saylor: "Everything gets too big. Big government, big charity, big bank, big education, big medicine, big foreign policy, big defense. In nature when a creature gets too big it collapses under its own weight. The elephant is the limit to what nature can create."
"The smaller the better. The smallest possible government. Most government intervention is iatrogenic. It cripples everything."
You could literally:
- Buy $500,000 of Bitcoin miners
- Deduct the full amount this year under Section 179
- Own machines producing Bitcoin every day at $0.07/kWh
Why aren't more people doing this?!
The fact that the Strategy Board held the dividend payment on STRC constant at 11 1/2 percent indicates to me that they are already aware of more demand at these levels, presumably a fraction of which was just waiting until we got closer to month-end and, now, the record date.
Either way, I figured it was a good idea to scoop some up between 99.40 and 99.42 on April 28th. If and when they approve the change to semimonthly payments, one would not expect to see STRC trade below 99.50 again.
I keep thinking that perhaps they're aiming to have STRC wrapped by a bank and therefore are aiming to contain volatility at 1/2 percent or less. I say let the bank eat the rest of that volatility and earn 2% for their troubles. That's a hell of a lot of money in the banking world.
🚨 Anthropic's own team just showed how to actually use Claude Code properly.
30 minutes. free. the person who created Claude Code.
watch the workshop. bookmark it.
worth more than every $500 course you almost bought.
you've been using Claude without knowing 40 of its commands.
Then read the guide below.
BILLIONAIRE GRANT CARDONE TELLS HIS 3,000,000 FOLLOWERS ON YOUTUBE:
"MY GOAL USED TO BE OWNING 100,000 APARTMENTS"
"NOW IT'S OWNING 10,000 #BITCOIN"
LEGENDARY 🔥