June marked the first month since the Covid pandemic with an absolute decline in jobs.
This isn’t just about wanting rate cuts anymore.
It’s about needing them.
Even if $BTC bottoms around 45–50K, I’m not waiting for the perfect entry.
I ladder bids from -50% to -70%. (We are -53%)
You should know whales front run orders by now.😜
#BTC
Whenever Bitcoin peaks in its Bull Market in Q4 of the Post-Halving year...
It tends to produce a multi-month Relief Rally from the Macro Triangle Base before breaking down from the Triangle to transition into Bearish Acceleration
This is the 4th consecutive cycle that this historical tendency has continued
And history suggests there's more downside to come
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
$HYPE still consolidating after that strong move from the lows.
$31.8 is the local line in the sand. Lose it and more downside would open up before any real move.
Descending triangle after an advance = consolidation, not reversal.
True breakout isn't until $38. Best R/R is longs at $31.8 support or on the breakout.
Everything in between is chop.
$BTC Closing Long Trade Fully Here.
4% Up from Average. ✅
Reason?
I don't get full conviction that the worst is over yet. Might be wrong. Might be right.
Getting 16% to 15% daily swing moves isn't my type of market. I will restart trading with small moves as I think markets are preparing itself for the rangebound environment very soon.
So it's best we stay sidelined until then.
Keep your funds safu.
Will create new and fresh plan ahead.
#btc #btcusdt #bitcoin
$BTC
Honestly, you just have to laugh at this point. You’d think people would learn by now, but apparently not.
This entire move up has been largely short driven, with funding sitting around -0.02 during the rally. That tells you a lot. 🤣
As shorts close and price pushes higher, the move can continue squeezing. But if the capitulation runs out and there’s no sustained spot demand underneath it, price likely rolls over on the LTFs.
$BTC After a very volatile week, here we are.
Price saw some two massive daily candles on Thursday & Friday respectively.
Weekends are generally slower but last weekend we did create a massive gap. This weekend is also starting off more volatile than others so not sure if it's going to be that straight forward.
Regardless, the CME close price sits around $70K so that's a level to watch if you're trading anything this weekend.
$ETH has reclaimed the $2,000 level for now.
This is the first sign that the local bottom is in for some time.
For more upside, Ethereum needs to break above the $2,100 level, which acted as a support in Q2 2025 and has now flipped into resistance.
$BTC entered the weekend-range again.
Bitcoin had a nice move towards the H1 swing-high, which is now also the rangehigh for this weekend.
We're in weekend liquidity now, so not expecting big moves.
Though, I need to be careful saying that, because last weekend we dumped -10%.
On average, nothing really happens during the weekend so I'm not actively trading as some may know.
Rules in a range are: Rangehigh can trigger longs after the gain or shorts after the sweep + bearish MSB.
Vice versa for the rangelow, after a sweep and bullish MSB longs are triggered. And if we really lose the low and show no strength, continuation shorts could be interesting.
HTF-trend remains bearish, let's see what next week brings.
$BTC longs
71k hit, main target 1 is in, thank you bitcoin.
Alright, nice move on $BTC so far off the 63k long entry.
I don't need to say much on these. You all know very clearly what the plan was, how I expected 63k to bounce hard and 71k to hit as a first main target.
Most influencers were busy farming bearish engagement. But we know that doesn't make money, instead it's about calling the next move (keyword: with clarity).
The lots and lots of 50k calls of bears who haven't posted for a long time did help solidify the sentiment however too and help us with the right direction.
For us, that was 71k next. And here it is.
No need to hold off on TP'ing anymore, it's time to reward ourselves.
I'm taking off 40% off the position here, leaving the rest as a runner.
Further good news is that we officially are forming the range we wanted to see as well which allows us to trade it.
Enjoy the gains on this long.
I'll see you later.
#Bitcoin bounced to $71K and is coming back down again.
Standard Saturday price action, it's weekend. Low liquidity.
I think that it's going to find a higher low and continue to move from there.
Today: correction day.
Tomorrow: back up again towards the CME gap.
Next week: continuation to $75k+.
$BTC printed a new weekly low.
Yesterday, we swept the low after rejecting H4 resistance like I mentioned. The short printed well, enjoy the gains if you took it.
Bias remains bearish logically, as all higher timeframes are confirmed down.
For todays trades, the plan for Bitcoin is pretty straight forward. We tested the HTF support box once, but until we see an H4 gain of resistance, I remain bearish.
For shorts, I'd like to see one more push above ~$76,866 liquidity. When this happens I'll short the M15/M30 market structure break with the ~$72,894 low as target.
The H4 ~$79,020 liquidity/resistance level is still valid. So if we retest that, I'll be looking for shorts after the failure and longs after the reclaim again.
When we get a deeper retest of the HTF support box, It's simply waiting on a high-probability reversal or bearish retest again.
The trend is your friend, and I'll keep trading that wave until proven otherwise.
Let's see if we get another nice opportunity today.
$BTC
Nice reaction so far, keep in mind our levels (with patience)
Alright, nice reaction so far after taking the weak lows (TPO wise), and weekend lows at the same time.
You may remember last post I talked about how, despite both levels being close together, it's still important to separate both as a reaction in between is likely and will cause scatter in thoughts around.
It's the last line of defence and weak lows are key liquidity to provide a reaction.
Personally still want to see the move continue higher somewhat more. Shorting here towards the level is certainly not worth it, let's fill at least the CME gap, and bring us way closer to 90.4k.
Other than that, to long, or add to high timeframe spot, I still prefer to wait for 74.4k (and more so deeper below, but lets see how far the slide goes upon taking the level), per overall plan (with patience).
Regarding that "patience", indeed pointed out in the title last post.
That's all normal during the monthly transition. Every month ends with a closing wick and an opening wick so it's always a good general assumption, you know the drill. Just putting alerts and not overthinking it, whilst staying ready and on top of the plan.
Sentiment
Sentiment wise, we are quite scattered. But I sure will say that the ISM data does put a bullish twist on it in quite a sudden sense. Not an extreme one, but certainly enough to get people excited on a small pump from here.
Personally looking for that when heading into a short trade from higher.
Summary
So goal is still to wait here, action follows from either side, with the main point being that CME gap fill would be nice, and the level 74.4k is likely to be cleared. Even if a "small" move seems unsignificant, we are already seeing some bottom calling occur sentiment wise and the anticipation of such a big structural low breaking is not just about proximity, it's also about time (it is taking its time), and keeping it in mind in case we counter trend rally, preparing the trade and seeing if sentiment alongside order flow and local confirmation indeed sets up the trade.
That's the plan and has been the plan.
Enjoy.
$ETH Overall price action has been awful this cycle but the levels have been very clean.
We've had this $2.1K and $2.8K area marked out for a long time now and these keep getting respected extremely well.
So there's no need to overcomplicate. Currently in the $2.1K-$2.8K price range which we've spend a lot of time in already.
Lose this and $1.8K would be next. That's the breakout level from before the large rally driven primarily by Tom Lee/Bitmine.
$BTC / Bitcoin
Levels that matter.
$74K is the obvious critical line in the sand preventing full capitulation. We swept below, but reclaimed with 2x average volume over the last month on that candle, so there are plenty of buyers willing to defend these lows.
The issue is the reluctance to hold above $79K and challenge the $80s. If we keep failing to crack it and put in minor lower highs on the way up, it's probably written in the stars that we break below these lows as bulls accept their fate and flip sides.
That would be extremely damaging to macro structure, and means $65K is incoming in the not-so-distant future.
If we do manage to break through $80K, it puts bulls in a good position to rally into the $84–$86K zone, which likely marks the next macro lower high.
Between $74–$80K is pure chop. Longs and shorts both need precision entries and exits because these intraday moves are taking out both sides with ease.
No other way around the chart right now. Just play the levels and don't marry an outcome.
$ETH is still hovering around the $2,350 level.
A few large whales are selling, which is stopping Ethereum from any bounce back.
Until ETH breaks above the $2,400 level, any recovery chances are low.
"Bitcoin must hold $74k". This is what a majority of bullish Bitcoin holders are saying must hold or they will finally turn bearish.
I agree. Breaking $74k would put in a lower low. I marked similar areas in green, from the past cycles.
Once the lower low is created, the 200W MA comes quickly. It currently sits at $57k.
Few are as bold and transparent with their plans as I am.
I publicly shorted 123K (3x) before 80K,
shorted 95K before 77K,
and sold 50% of my $BTC at the top.
In a space full of uneducated flip floppers, conviction is rare. If you’ve followed me, you know I pick a side and stick with it.
I stand on business. ✌️
The weekly RSI for the $BTC valuation relative to gold has reached its lowest level to date.
However, that doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin moves up more than Gold.
No, it corrects less than Gold does, that's why this chart is turning upwards.
It also indicates that from here on, #Bitcoin is extremely undervalued relative to Gold.
Given that it's below the RSI lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022, those were the bottoms of the previous bear markets.
The bear market is almost over.
We should be close to a local bottom and I don't say this often.
The only other time I said this during this entire downtrend was in November.
"Not necessarily the lowest bottom but a local one at least"
This time however I do think we're getting closer to a true bottom. Nothing is off the table however. I am no predictor. I am a confirmer.
Bottoms take time to form and unlike what most people think, they don't V-shape recover and go to infinity and beyond in a matter of days.
Many will make you believe you need to buy buy buy. Very quickly because you'll be to late tomorrow. I don't and I believe many have started to regret doing that.
A true new uptrend won't end after 10%. Don't worry.
For now we'll already make a local bottom soon. $74k is another huge demand like $80k was in November.
We'll make a local bottom soon regardless whether the market remains bearish or turns bullish again. In both scenarios.
The difference is that one of them will be a relief wave and the other the start of an uptrending one.
Now ideally for me personally I would like to see the start of some sort of Wyckoff accumulation pattern here.
If you're not familiar with those it looks like sideways price with small fake drops in between. But mostly back and forth in a range on a strong higher time frame level.
Likely to create plenty of bounces here for now already and move back within the $80k range back and forth soon.
When the trend is down I don't like to predict to much and call things to early.
But at the very least we'll already locally bounce here very soon.