Ryan Chern

@vistadex | podcast:

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

On June 13, Polymarket removed the taker delay for all World Cup matches. Here's what a goal looks like without it for the ARG win market at the 85' mark:

- 13,848 shares were resting within 5¢ of the ask when the ball crossed
- 90% of all cancels occurred within 65ms of each other
- First post-goal taker order lands 63ms behind the cancels and picks off less than $800
- Total sniped on a 3x book move: <$1,000 (600+ total active maker addresses, 11 adversely filled)

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

https://t.co/J3O0iGUGkR

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

.@GarrettPetersen makes a lot of really cool AI games in his spare time and thinks Steam will allow users to filter out games with AI-content disclosures within the next year.

I think Steam won't have this feature by next year.

Follow the market:

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

@crabbylions Holding strong (for now)

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

.@crabbylions has taken Matty's side.

Standing alone on the NO side for now.

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

I’m a longtime MetaDAO supporter, but I’m betting @mattytay that fewer than 4 Colosseum-sponsored companies will be listed on MetaDAO by March 31, 2027.

https://t.co/YIulmpp5iJ

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

@eightyhi It's likely much larger than 5% given that parlays have a 1-4% edge (last I checked) with 10s/100s of quoters.

Long-tail markets don't have to be niche and illiquid forever!

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

Block trades like these do not have market price discovery, leading to single counterparties (KT, SIG) taking much larger margins (5%+). The order books for these markets are non-existent and even small liquidity incentives could lead to meaningful price discovery.

Would love to see platforms incentivize price discovery for these long-tail markets with actual hedging demand before initiating a block trades. You can probably even get people like Mammoth Rock 'n' Bowl to subsidize these markets directly.

[Kalshi for Small Business @kalshi_business]

Mammoth Rock ‘n’ Bowl is a restaurant and bowling alley in Mammoth, California, one of the top ski towns in America.

Like the hotels, rentals, and shops around it, the business runs on winter tourism. A bad snow year hits revenue hard. Rock ‘n’ Bowl is especially exposed since they also sponsor a youth snowboarding team.

So rather than wait and see, co-owner Ashley Marks asked Kalshi for a market on Mammoth Mountain December snowfall. We built it, and she’s trading $5,000 for a $31,250 payout if there’s weak snow.

"We created the snow market with Kalshi because like other mom and pop businesses, we live with seasonal snow risk and wanted to give the community a way to offset some of that uncertainty." - Ashley

If the snow comes, business runs like any other winter, and she loses the $5,000 trade.

If it doesn’t, the Kalshi position pays out, giving Ashley $26,250 to help offset lost tourist revenue.

Either way, Ashley's business is protected.

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

https://t.co/NCI3N4D2gx

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

.@0xperp has designed some of the most thoughtful indices across economics, politics, and AI.

Their new AI Capability Efficiency Index measures the price-return level of AI capability and compute affordability based on event contracts.

Bet against either of us:

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

@xuryholder @mattytay Join the bet! Can't DM you but feel free DM me for an invite code.

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

I’m a longtime MetaDAO supporter, but I’m betting @mattytay that fewer than 4 Colosseum-sponsored companies will be listed on MetaDAO by March 31, 2027.

https://t.co/YIulmpp5iJ

[Colosseum @colosseum]

👀

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

@gizmothegizzer Creates very weird pricing incentives!

https://t.co/XVYZXVgsdj

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

Clothing items under $110 are sales tax exempt in NYC.

A $110 item cost $9.77 more at checkout than if it was priced at $109.99.

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

@alanwu Why are they using intents and not directly trading on-chain?

[Alan Wu @alanwu]

https://t.co/yT6AQjJkcE

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

Two indices I want to see: AI progress + AI's impact on early-stage jobs

[Alan Wu @alanwu]

https://t.co/CdgW2DJKKG

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

Timely listen: my 2023 conversation with Neal Koblitz, co-creator of ECC, on his path into cryptography, early Ethereum advisory work, and the geopolitics of math across the US, Russia, and Vietnam.

https://t.co/3rzixlHFcd

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

@mrinko congrats!

[ClaudeDevs @ClaudeDevs]

We made claude​.ai 3x faster in two weeks.

Here’s how we use Claude to measure, debug and improve performance. Prompts and methods included.

https://t.co/mgvK8mJRuD

[Ryan Chern @ryanchern]

@dmoroz @WilliamBryk @jeffzwang Congrats!

[Andrew Courtney @andrewcourt1]

Visuals like this are a great complement to news