Ryan O'Farrell

Non-state actors and conflicts / mostly East Africa / Ohioan / Defections Operations Coordinator at the Bridgeway Foundation / @SAISHopkins alum

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Very excited to announce that our new book "Islamic State in Africa: The Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the Next Jihadist Battlefront" by @warnjason with myself, @MENASTREAM and @Pol_Sec_Analyst is now available! https://t.co/DvjCQTbop4

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@RashmanTheHorse Very persistent denial of local groups' capacity for agency

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Abuwakas is a sociopathic mass murdering rapist who left a relatively comfortable life in Dar in order to murder thousands of innocents in Congo. With any luck he'll catch it. No one more deserving of dying from hemorrhagic fever.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Last night's massacre in Cantine is the latest in a series of attacks led by Tanzanian commander Abuwakas, covering 120km over five weeks.

Illustrates how ADF have dispersed into smaller, highly mobile assault teams capable of operating autonomously over long distances.

[Baromètre sécuritaire du Kivu @BarometreKST]

Dans la nuit du 5 novembre, les #ADF ont attaqué le village #Cantine en territoire de #Beni. Bilan provisoire : au moins 35 civils dont 17 enfants, tués à la machette ou brûlés vifs. 2 structures sanitaires, 17 maisons et 15 boutiques incendiées. 7 des otages ont été relâchés.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Nasty intersection of crises in eastern Congo
https://t.co/JEgCAFDiuS

[Reuters Africa @ReutersAfrica]

Islamic State-linked militants raided a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, killing at least 33 civilians and forcing patients with confirmed and suspected Ebola infections to flee, authorities said on Friday. https://t.co/uESTDqry2E

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@VincentFoucher RIP your notifications bro

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @caleb_weiss7 @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor It demonstrates that ADF is integrated into IS propaganda architecture in the same way that all IS provinces are (Sahel, ISWAP, Afghanistan, etc). Command and control is a different topic requiring different evidence, and no one thinks that IS tells ADF when and where to attack.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @caleb_weiss7 @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor You're moving the goalposts here. You claimed that ADF and IS have "zero communication", I demonstrated that they do (media, publication times, etc), and now you're raising the standard that those conditions must be met 100% of the time. That bad methodology.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @caleb_weiss7 @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor If Islamic State propaganda channels are the only channels publishing media taken by ADF fighters, and they are doing so before any local media outlets even realize an attack took place, then clearly ADF is communicating with Islamic State.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @caleb_weiss7 @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor That's a bad methodological standard. Even if that only occurs 15% of the time, Islamic State is still the exclusive outlet for ADF media, publishing before any local media outlets. 15% still completely nullifies your earlier assertion of "zero communication" between ADF and IS.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @caleb_weiss7 @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor They do get names wrong sometimes, but more often they use the names of nearby villages because they don't know specific sous-villages and just pick more prominent ones nearby. Happens more often now that they're much more dispersed and mobile and less familiar with local terrain

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @caleb_weiss7 @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor Old thread of mine from 2021, but very clear that ADF sends detailed battlefield updates and media to Islamic State so that IS can publish claims/media, often including details that local reporting doesn't catch until after that propaganda is published. https://t.co/DchbQLnvzU

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

This sequence of releases pretty clearly demonstrates how ISCAP-ADF is rapidly relaying battlefield updates with specific geographic information to IS's propaganda apparatus, alongside media confirming both location and details. IS Central isn't just reading news reports.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @caleb_weiss7 @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor Lot of claims come out before there's any reporting in local media, with photos/videos taken by ADF and sent to IS to distribute. Multiple recent examples of geolocated videos taken by ADF that are published by IS several weeks before there are any reports in local media/KST/etc

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor Everything I’ve said here is entirely a result of trying to understand better. At a certain point, when hundreds of former members who themselves verifiably, recently spent time in the group’s camps keep saying it…I tend to conclude that they’re telling the truth. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor “ISCAP” does seem less common for low ranking combatants and hostages than the more simple “dawla” or “khilafa” or “mujahideen”, but the higher ranking/longer term ones have consistently recognized the “wilayat” label as what ADF became when it joined IS, as a sub-component of IS

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@salvgio @VincentFoucher @adam_sandor Might be a difference in who we’ve interviewed? I’ve spent hundreds of hours with 100+ combatants, hostages, “wives,” long term commanders and others who were verifiably in their camps before, during and after they joined IS, and all of them are universally consistent on this.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@VincentFoucher @salvgio @adam_sandor There is some variation in how some of lower ranking combatants or hostages describe the terminology, sometimes as simple as “they call themselves the Muslims,” but dawla, khilafa, etc, is all pretty universal for anyone who spends significant time in captivity.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@VincentFoucher @salvgio @adam_sandor There’s really no ambiguity on this anymore. They put out their own internally produced sermons and videos by readily identifiable sheikhs and commanders, directly addressing how they used to be ADF, that they are no longer ADF, that they’re now ISCAP, and loyal to khilafa.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

“…while paying limited attention to the social and human dimensions of the ADF phenomenon”

Begging for someone to actually define what this even means. Still fighting for Rwenzururu? Ex-RCD bandits? Just something, anything, beyond vague insinuations of “complexity”

[Caleb Weiss @caleb_weiss7]

Guys it’s 2026, almost 2027, it’s time to stop questioning if ADF is actually jihadist. It’s full on Islamic State now, and quite enthusiastically so. This is just willful ignorance at this point.