Ryan O'Farrell

Non-state actors and conflicts / mostly East Africa / Ohioan / Defections Operations Coordinator at the Bridgeway Foundation / @SAISHopkins alum

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Very excited to announce that our new book "Islamic State in Africa: The Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the Next Jihadist Battlefront" by @warnjason with myself, @MENASTREAM and @Pol_Sec_Analyst is now available! https://t.co/DvjCQTbop4

[Caleb Weiss @caleb_weiss7]

1. New from Team Bridgeway: Zawadi Ghislaine (our intrepid head researcher in #Congo) and I take a deep dive into the roles of women in ISCAP/ADF for @CTCWP https://t.co/hF10Uune0k

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Extremely excited to share my colleague Zawadi's new paper in @CTCWP about the role of women in ISCAP (ADF). Based on interviews with dozens of former members, she explains how women are integrated into its strict, extremely gendered social hierarchy https://t.co/IsCSwaKaiR

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@GNzowo Instead, everything is still "murky" and "mysterious" and "dubious," explanations resort to conspiracy theories rather than facts, and all this does is further confuse policymakers and the broader discussion of a group that kills 1000-1500 civilians per year.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@GNzowo I think a lot of these "denialists" are stuck in older understandings of ADF from 2013-2016 and haven't updated their priors, even though so much has been documented in terms of communications, envoys, massive financial support, technical assistance, etc, between ADF and IS.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

@caleb_weiss7 Extremely telling that they're still citing "command and control" from the 2021 UN report while ignoring all the mounting evidence that has been included in subsequent reports. Cherry-picking old stuff to confirm their priors, while ignoring everything else.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Incredible amount of misinformation in this interview, *still* attempting to deny or obfuscate ADF links with Islamic State.

Everything is "mysterious" and "murky," while hard evidence is hand-waved away in favor of a fetishistic obsession with conspiracies. I don't get it.

[Gaëtan-Dauphin Nzowo @GNzowo]

The ADF Part 2: Naming the Killers — Uganda, ISIS-DRC, and the War on Terror in Congo https://t.co/FCe7ENgrv8

[Caleb Weiss @caleb_weiss7]

Really hope internal IS docs and tech were also captured in the raid, knowing more about the dynamics of IS ops and leadership in Africa is paramount

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

ADF also prioritize abducting children because they are easier to indoctrinate. Which often means children are forced to kill civilians (including other children) while girls as young as 13 are forced into sexual slavery. Speaking to victims and defectors is incredibly grim.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Can confirm. Footage from attacks that filters out through unofficial channels and footage of the aftermath of massacres shows little discrimination in victims, while executions are often carried out with machetes and hammers to avoid alerting security forces and save ammunition.

[Dilawar Karwan @RashmanTheHorse]

I was told early last yr that there's a LOT of ISCAP footage that IS Central categorically refuses to publish bc of its brutality.

[Gregory Waters @GregoryPWaters]

I've added a new link on my website that takes you to an interactive map showing all of my articles profiling different Syrian communities. It includes pieces covering war-time history, post-war experiences, and interviews with locals.

I hope this can be a useful resource for those interested in more local Syrian accounts. https://t.co/thMZYDeeNX

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

-CS/VP14 MRAPs
-VN22 APCs
-VN22B 105mm assault guns
-VN2C APCs

Probably, uh, not good if *literal Al-Qaeda* gets ahold of any significant stockpiles of these as Bamako's control slips.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Amid these withdrawals, probably worth noting that Mali made a *major* purchase of Chinese weapons systems last year. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth.

-SR-5 MRLS
-SH-1 self-propelled howitzers
-CS/SM5 120mm self-propelled mortars
-Yitian-L anti-air missile systems

[Brant @BrantPhilip_]

Breaking: The city of Ber becomes the fourth location in northern Mali to be handed over peacefully from the Russian Africa Corps and Malian army to the FLA/JNIM coalition, and the first city in the Tombouctou region to fall to the rebels.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Optimistically, a paramilitary might fit that role and help regularize responsibility for mine security in conflict-prone areas. But - as ever - a million ways this could go wrong, and the motivations and interests of the involved parties are…suspect.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

A dedicated mining police isn’t all that unusual in developing countries with budget-critical extractive sectors, but some questions:
-Does it really answer to the Interior Ministry, or its foreign funders?
-What happens to the already-existing Police des Mines (PNC)?

[acp.cd @acprdcongo]

#RDC : dans le cadre de ses partenariats stratégiques avec les États-Unis d'Amérique (USA) et les Émirats arabes Unis (EAU), la République démocratique du Congo a franchi un pas déterminant avec le financement de 100 millions de dollars américains consacré à la création de la Garde minière dans 22 provinces du pays, selon un communiqué de l' Inspection générale des mines (IGM) lundi.
Il est prévu que ce corps compte 20.000 membres bien formés, afin d'encadrer le secteur minier et surtout assurer la traçabilité dans ce secteur crucial pour les partenariats avec les USA et les EAU.
"La volonté du Président de la République, que nous mettons en œuvre, est d’assainir l’ensemble du secteur minier de la RDC, en éliminant les pratiques contraires à la bonne gouvernance à la transparence et à la traçabilité des minerais", a déclaré l’Inspecteur général des mines, Rafael Kabengele.
La Garde Minière aura pour principales missions : "la sécurisation des sites miniers sur l’ensemble du territoire national;
le convoyage sécurisé des minerais, depuis les zones d’extraction jusqu’aux
unités de traitement et aux postes frontaliers", a précisé le communiqué.
Le 4 décembre, la RDC et les USA ont signé un accord de partenariat sur les minerais critiques et la sécurité.
Un accord de partenariat similaire a été aussi conclu par Kinshasa et Doha sur l'or.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

On one level, a significant chunk of FARDC is already effectively employed as security by foreign mining companies in conflict-heavy parts of the east. Existing mining police aren’t really equipped for protecting mines under those conditions.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Looks like FARDC is using one of its two relatively new L-39 jets (first reported by the latest UN GoE report) to conduct airstrikes on the Minembwe airstrip. Probably meant to prevent planes from landing for resupply/CASEVAC. @GeoConfirmed

[Bertrand Bisimwa @bbisimwa]

Le régime de Kinshasa a choisi le moment de la reprise des négociations politiques pour pilonner, à l’aide de Sukhoi, plusieurs villages à Minembwe causant mort et désolation parmi les civils ainsi que la destruction des plusieurs habitations civiles, églises, écoles, hôpitaux,..

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

What tradcath sleeper agent in the MAGA comms team slipped this demonic easter egg in there? Pope Leo's silent soldiers...

[S2 Underground @s2_underground]

For additional context, the image posted to President Trump's account is an image that initially circulated back in February, but has been altered.

Between the two images, one edit was made. Below is a comparison between the original AI image that was posted (back in February), versus what was posted to President Trump's social media page.

The raw, primary-source material and links to the original posts are listed below, for those who want to verify for themselves.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

Smaller, cheaper quadcopters would probably be useful for tactical operations at the platoon/company/battalion level, but ADF is simply a different threat than the ~conventional campaign against static M23 positions and supply lines in which larger UCAVs have proven effective.

[Ryan O'Farrell @ryanmofarrell]

1) MONUSCO has had drones for counter-ADF operations for over a decade, and now so do UPDF
2) Even very expensive MALE drones with advanced visual and thermal optics can’t penetrate triple canopy forests, and ADF are *very* disciplined about maintaining cover over their camps

[Dave Jenkins @MzeeDaveJenkins]

Hmm? I’m old enough to remember the ADF terrorism for over 25 years. Good question, “Why has no drone ever been deployed to track down the ADF?”