ryshab

[ryshab @ryshab]

Portfolio Update as of May 16, 2025

🟢 YTD Returns: +39%
🟢 $SPY +2%, 🟢 $QQQ +2% 🔴 $IWM -5%

$HIMS 26%
$SEZL 12%
$DCTH 9%
$TARS 9%
$NVDA 8%
$CRDO 7%
$ALAB 7%
$RDDT 6%
$KRYS 5%
$UPST 4%
$TQQQ 4%
$BSEM 4%
$GAMB 4%

Portfolio is currently 105% long and has 13 positions.

Changes this week:

Sold:
$ANIP (Lower methodology score, concentrating portfolio, hence the exit)
$INOD (I didn't like the earnings report and definitely did not like the no guidance increase. Not sure about this one, I think this will do well. But I believe in the ones I own more than Innodata at this point)

Bumped:
$TARS (Building my Tier 2 allocation - markets gave an opportunity to add)
$KRYS (Sold off after not too steler earnings. I still like their next 12-24 months prospects. Came into support, so added a bit)

Portfolio Summary:
Semiconductor and AI plays got a bid and in combination with some good earnings from my top positions, this turned out to be a great week. Always thankful when you put up a 14% week. I know how rare they come. I expect my portfolio to outperform when markets are having a good run and so far so good. Still a few more earnings to go later this month, so hopeful for this run to continue.

Week's top performers: $ALAB $HIMS $CRDO $NVDA
And the most painful ones: $BSEM $ANIP $GAMB

Hope you all had a great week too in the markets.
Enjoy your weekend friends. Cheers!

[ryshab @ryshab]

Thanks for all the great suggestions. I truly appreciate it.

As a thank you - here is the stock:
$CRMD - CorMedix Inc.

They play in the life threatening conditions and diseases space but their lead asset is DefenCath® (taurolidine and heparin) - an FDA approved, novel, first-in-class, non-antibiotic antimicrobial catheter lock solution (CLS) to reduce the incidence of catheter related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) in the limited population of adult hemodialysis patients receiving chronic hemodialysis through a central venous catheter (CVC), a critical unmet medical need with a high rate of incidence, and high rates of morbidity and mortality.

Market Cap - 869 mil.
Gross Margins: 95%
FCF TTM: -16%
NTM EV/Sales: 5.5x
NTM Growth Analyst Prediction: 53%
Guide Raise: 40% my assumption (Analysts had to raise guide 10% last quarter for this year's revenue expectation, which if you annualize it is 40%)

But here is the key, this quarter it had 50% FCF. If 50% is their high mark and they fall down and optimize operations to get back to 50%, boy that is a cash generating machine.

I think this is why the stock took off. I am gonna wait for a pullback, can't justify getting in. Which means when things wobble, my conviction will wobble too. So will wait to enter.

But I really appreciate everyone's feedback, so sharing the idea. I still need to do more research but things are checking out great so far.

Please note, this is not investment advice. So please do your own due diligence.

[ryshab @ryshab]

Need some advice ...

So I found a stock, looks really good. Can't share ticker yet, need to build a position.

Methodology score: 117 (will be second position debut)
Market Cap: Below 1B
Growth: Very High
Margins Very High
FCF+
Dilution: Not great but will not matter in 12 months

BUT this thing has already doubled since April lows
UGH!!!

Now what do I do? How do I enter in this situation?
What do you guys suggest?

I have gotten into fomo before and got $SEZL. Similar chart, luckily it worked out for me but not before I had a live through a 60% drawdown.

So looking for ideas. Let me know what you guys got.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@bigpoppastonk pretty undervalued - on ntm numbers. current numbers it's pretty decently valued, which is misleading for a very high growth business.

[ryshab @ryshab]

Need some advice ...

So I found a stock, looks really good. Can't share ticker yet, need to build a position.

Methodology score: 117 (will be second position debut)
Market Cap: Below 1B
Growth: Very High
Margins Very High
FCF+
Dilution: Not great but will not matter in 12 months

BUT this thing has already doubled since April lows
UGH!!!

Now what do I do? How do I enter in this situation?
What do you guys suggest?

I have gotten into fomo before and got $SEZL. Similar chart, luckily it worked out for me but not before I had a live through a 60% drawdown.

So looking for ideas. Let me know what you guys got.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@TalentNotHaver @alisayed786 @ddahobachir yeah - as you said, 2-3 months to go. So not sure how to play it. Markets could take a tumble from much higher prices.

[ryshab @ryshab]

The scary part of this market rally

This market is refusing to come down. The push from April 8th lows have been relentless. Here's the scary part of this rally.

The momentum indicators all have very similar patterns as the Covid-19 March 2020 lows. And if you remember what happened back then - the markets not only rallied hard of the lows but the rally continued for 21 months.

It ended in absolute crazy multiples for growth stocks. For context, we are in month 2 of this rally. This has the makings of a lockout rally and if it mirrors 2020, we are looking at much much much higher prices 12 months from now.

This market will have air pockets - when you will see 3% overnight drops but the demand will soak up everything in 2-3 days. That's another sign of a lockout rally.

That's the scary part. We might be in just the second innings of this new bull run.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@TalentNotHaver @alisayed786 @ddahobachir yeah I totally feel ya. I am having a situation with a new stock I found. Like it - but can't convince myself to enter.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@investorenginar some of it is due to going public, I would guess. All the RSUs maturing and people cashing in. And currently, the dilution for ltm is at 13%. Not great but not terrible for the growth prospects Reddit has.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@alisayed786 @ddahobachir yeah possibility of scary good time could be ahead! and no chance to load up for anything for a long long time.

[ryshab @ryshab]

I guess I have officially made it.
Please help report this account.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@KurrinBickmore Well, there is a air pocket till $34.50 for now. But after July, the trend line comes up to support above that price. So for the next two months, I think unfortunately, $34.50 is in play. But $24, I agree - I would be surprised to see that again.

[ryshab @ryshab]

Where I plan to take profit on HIMS $HIMS?

Short answer $110

Here's the long version...
HIMS have been on a tear lately. However, if you just draw some simple trend lines on this thing, it will be very clear where this is headed.

As you see on this chart, my bet is it reaches around $110. If you want a range, I think it's $100-$120. For now, that is where I plan to lighten my position sizing.

Then, we rinse and repeat. And if $HIMS decides to take a breather, I will add back if it gets to $34 and then $24.

Let's see how this unfolds.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@hksfho not enough fcf

[ryshab @ryshab]

Here's something that will blow your mind

Which businesses will do this in the next 12 months:
📈 Revenue Growth: 40%+
🥧 Gross Margins: 70%+
💸 Free Cash Flow: 20%+

Guess what? I have 5 companies on my list. That's it! 🤯

$NVDA $ALAB $PLTR $RDDT $UPST

No one else makes this list. WILD!!!

Btw, the above reason is why all of these businesses will get high multiples. And this is also why $PLTR stays overvalued so much.

Let me know if you are tracking a business that has the above ELITE criteria.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@JoeyTphilly You know, I really don't know what Mr. Market has in store for us. I am just prepared for both outcomes. It's apparently the most volatile stock in the market for its size and above. So really anything is possible.

[ryshab @ryshab]

@smallmidcaps let's go!

[ryshab @ryshab]

There are 24 analysts following the stock currently. Everything you mentioned should be built into the expectations already. With that background, the analysts are expecting $APP to be a consistent 20% performer. Don't get me wrong, $APP is amazing. But I don't know if it is a 40% grower going forward. More like 30%, which would still be great!

[ryshab @ryshab]

@3Plantey2 @investing_bear Yeah. Also app has crazy fcf, that alone guarantees higher multiple

[ryshab @ryshab]

@X_Investor10 Very posible it plays out like that

[ryshab @ryshab]

@fight0161 No idea

[ryshab @ryshab]

@fight0161 Higher

[ryshab @ryshab]

@fight0161 What's your timeframe?

[ryshab @ryshab]

@raph_41 Quite possible.