I read S-1 filings cover to cover. 25 years at a major Japanese telecom, in Silicon Valley since 2015. GCV Top 50 CVC investor. No price calls or advice.
Every S-1 I decode goes on a public scoreboard: $1,000 at the first day's close, tracked daily against the S&P 500. Wins and misses on the same page. Not prediction. Verification.
https://t.co/X9DJ9aZkBD
Wella, the salon hair color brand. Net income of $62.3 million for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026. Of that, $2.7 million is left for the parent company.
On that assumption, nothing is left for the old company's ordinary shares, and not one new share goes to them. The number for the assumed price is still blank.
$1,000 into Google at its 2004 first-day close was $141,181 as of the Oct 13 close. The same table holds Snowflake: from its 2020 first-day close, $1,000 was $1,409 on the same date, vs $2,515 in the S&P 500 from Snowflake's first day. I track both, wins and misses.
@puckrin I went to p.294 of SB Energy's S-1/A (Sep 21). NVIDIA's $3.0B: $1.5B prepaid Aug 17 to parent Energy Global; $1.5B contingent on the IPO closing, at the IPO price.
I checked 965 US listings from 2020 to 2025 with usable price data, as of mid-July 2026. 195 touched 2x their first weekly close at some point within a year (~20%). 18 reached 10x within three (~2%). The winners are the exception.
@MartinGTobias I went to the cover of Oura's S-1/A, filed Sept 21. Of the 50,000,000 shares offered, the company was offering 13,500,000 and the selling stockholders 36,500,000.
@LeaveDelaware I opened p.121 of SB Energy's S-1/A (Sept 21). Its own risk factors say the Texas Business Court "is in its infancy, began hearing cases in September 2024".
$1,000 into Figma at its first-day close was $195 as of the Oct 9 close. The same $1,000 put into the S&P 500 on Figma's first day: $1,250. I record where day-one heat lands, every day.
I read DayOne Data Centers' prospectus (Form F-1) in the original. It is a data center company headquartered in Singapore, and it filed with the SEC on October 5. It rents space, power and cooling in data centers to large cloud and AI companies.
After the listing there will initially be eight directors. Only two of those seats are in the class that shareholders elect (the articles allow at most three), and the board approves the candidates first. Shareholders cannot remove the other six. The filing does not yet include a price range.