Sergei Chmel

#Bitcoin | Crypto fund operations | 3 funds built, endless vendor calls survived | Helping navigate custody, compliance & infrastructure | Not legal advice

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

Trees Don’t Grow to the Sky.

Celebrating #Ethereum ETF launch, I dare to suggest that either in this cycle or the next, we (crypto investors) should finally realise that trees don’t grow to the sky.

Specifically, there are limits to the valuation of
blockchain and, more importantly, blockchain applications (D'Apps).

For example, when I analysed the once-hyped project STEPN in 2022, the numbers were as follows:
Players: 49,000
Market Cap: $1.92 billion

I, then compared it to the well-known game Pokémon GO:
Players: 150 million
Market Cap: $4 billion

You know how it all ended.

Another interesting example is the NYSE, one of the largest exchanges in the world.

The total market cap of assets traded on this exchange (eq TVL in
DeFi) is astonishing $50.8 trillion.
Market Cap: $86 billion
Net Revenue: $8 billion

By the way, a large part of NYSE revenue comes from data sale (hello Chainlink).

How much can a blockchain be worth? A data oracle? A game?
I don’t know how much, but certainly not infinitely.

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

@alexdunsdon If it were people wouldn’t come with nonsense ideas like tokenize RE or watches or cars ))))

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

Two Worlds, One Portfolio Why the TradFi/Crypto divide is coming to an end.

A lot of debates are going around one idea: "tokenize everything." The argument — blockchain is a democratizing force, giving access to people who never had it.
1/

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

In Crypto and Bitcoin I’ve seen so many things happened that never happened before that 6 times is almost regularly happening event 😅🤣

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

Sunday put an end to 7 daily consecutive declines for bitcoin.

I believe this has happened only 6 times before.

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

Not a technology problem. A fundamental asset properties problem.

Subscribe to my Newsletter here https://t.co/ECjdj62ZEm

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

The principle: what can't be standardized can't be fractionalized. What can't be fractionalized can't become liquid. Illiquid assets don't transform through tokenization — they just become illiquid tokens.
The watches and art thesis fails for the same reason. 12/

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

Take a Midday Break | Guided #Meditation with Prashantam https://t.co/ldVfNt25Pn via @YouTube

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

Classic small FDV manipulation )

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

SPACEX IPO OVER-SUBSCRIBED AHEAD OF RECORD $75B LISTING

SpaceX has already received orders exceeding available shares in its $75B IPO, suggesting strong demand shortly after marketing began. The offering, priced at $135 per share, could value the company at about $1.8T. Trading is expected to start June 12. The deal, led by major Wall Street banks, uses a rare fixed-price structure instead of a typical price range.

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

Totally agree!

[Ki Young Ju @ki_young_ju]

Criticism over Bitcoin’s price decline should be directed more at OG whales than at Saylor.

Can we really compare the 1.24M BTC that OG whales sold to Saylor and ETFs over the past two years with the 32 BTC Saylor sold?

Bitcoin is much higher today because of Saylor’s buying. The market should give him more credit.

Without his purchases, if more than 700K BTC had been sold into the market, Bitcoin could have fallen much deeper, possibly like past bear markets.

The fact that Bitcoin is not at $22K today may be partly thanks to Saylor.

The “death spiral” narrative feels overstated to me.

Of course, I am open to changing my view if there is a well-researched, data-driven analysis that proves otherwise.

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

(C)

[Michael Green @profplum99]

At SFO… line 10 deep for Peet’s Coffee while zero interest in robot barista. RoBa is ~3% cheaper. Both have self-ordering. Both have full menu of drinks and baked goods.

Interested in hypotheses on “Why?”

A few of mine:

a) CafeX tried for novelty and poor quality? (Disproven by personal taste, but others may disagree)
b) Inferior UI with no backup human (contributing imho)
c) Price differential not enough to lead to switch (leading candidate)

[Michael Green @profplum99]

At SFO… line 10 deep for Peet’s Coffee while zero interest in robot barista. RoBa is ~3% cheaper. Both have self-ordering. Both have full menu of drinks and baked goods.

Interested in hypotheses on “Why?”

A few of mine:

a) CafeX tried for novelty and poor quality? (Disproven by personal taste, but others may disagree)
b) Inferior UI with no backup human (contributing imho)
c) Price differential not enough to lead to switch (leading candidate)

[Sergei Chmel @s_chmel]

@Prashantamzen So true ❤️