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The stock market is the greatest movie on earth.

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@evrgn11112231 The bottleneck boys would beg to differ. Margins to infinity

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@optionscjp Yes, because that's the nature of cyclical sectors

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@DocZzZzZz @_HalalTrader_ @SemiAnalysis_ The point i'm trying to make is: it doesn't matter if profit doubles, triples or quadruples from here in the next couple of quarters.

The market will price in a top well before profit peaks because the cycle WILL inevitably end.

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@DocZzZzZz @_HalalTrader_ @SemiAnalysis_ Profit doubling doesn't mean much. Look at the last couple of memory cycles for $MU:

- 2022: Stock peaks in Q1. EPS doesn't peak till Q3.
- 2018: Stock peaks in Q1 (w/ double top in Q2). EPS doesn't peak till Q4. Net income nearly doubled btwn Q1 & Q4.

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@DocZzZzZz @_HalalTrader_ @SemiAnalysis_ Even if it is off by a couple of quarters, a lot of people don't appreciate the fact that the market is always forward looking by 12-18 months.

Also this is is all assuming that there is no black swan event for memory.

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@ApedDegens

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@evrgn11112231 Excess supply is way closer than most memory bulls think. The market prices these things in years before they happen too

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@evrgn11112231 Berstein analysis btw

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@Eric26573545571 @evrgn11112231 Sorry, don't have the full report unfortunately

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@evrgn11112231 Buying fuckloads of $META & $AMZN at some of the cheapest valuations in both company's histories.

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@evrgn11112231 Show them this chart 🤣🤣

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@turtletv69 @blondesnmoney Here is some research from Bernstein. Memory supply is expected to meet demand by Q4 of next year.

Even if we're not at peak earnings yet, the market is ALWAYS forward looking and usually prices things in 12-18 months in advance.

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@turtletv69 @blondesnmoney The cyclical nature is quite clearly evident if you look at $MU's annual revenue growth.

I really don't understand why memory bulls always leave this part out and think this time will be different:

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@turtletv69 @blondesnmoney If what you’re saying is true then why has memory always been cyclical? Why have stocks like $MU crashed at the end of previous cycles if it was just meant to “fall into a jevons paradox”?

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@Pentosh1 Doesn't it almost feel too easy? That theres still a black swan left?

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@_HalalTrader_ Once again, this exact same sentiment always gets parroted at the bottom 🤣

Also, you are literally agreeing with me here by saying people will capitulate soon on $BTC

Capitulation implies a bottom.

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The speed at which $META will improve their AI models over these next few months will catch most people off guard.

Position yourself accordingly.

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@_HalalTrader_ You do realise that every Bitcoin cycle bottom has been marked by sentiment like yours? That its all over and that it will never ever recover?

Bookmark this if you want. BTC will bottom by Q4 2026.