SALYA TUO

Ingénieur Informatique, Option logiciels et optimisation de systèmes d'information
Investisseur,
Pationné de cryptomonaies &blokchain
Defi ( Web3.0)

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

💰 @BitMEX Co-Founder & @Maelstromfund CIO Arthur Hayes says he expects Zcash to reach 10–20% of Bitcoin’s value this cycle, calling it “Bitcoin with complete privacy” and adding, “that’s why I own a lot of it.”

Interview with @CryptoHayes coming soon.

Thank you @MidnightNtwrk 👋 for being a sponsor of CoinDesk Media Network.

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Will The Tardy Powell Fed Crash The Stock Market Again?

Enjoy this excerpt from our November 8, 2025, Around the Horn in which we unpack the growing near-term risk to asset markets from the Powell Fed’s latest of many policy mistakes.

The more the current FOMC continues to ignore the three-years-long recession for the low-to-median-income consumers and small businesses on the bottom of the K-shaped US economy, the higher the probability that the cyclical downturn in the labor market devolves in a manner that materially erodes passive retirement account flows into a richly valued stock market – if rising repo market stress doesn’t come home to roost first.

We hope they pivot back to the appropriate policy signaling before it’s too late.

Alas, hope is not an effective risk management process. Thankfully, our global investor community trusts KISS and Dr. Mo for that.

Have a great day!

-Skipper 💜

[Kyle Chassé 🐸 @Kylechasse]

🚨 BITCOIN LOOKS WEAK BUT ITS COILING

Bitcoin feels heavy.
ETFs saw over $450M flow out.
Fear is at 15.
Long term holders are rotating and new participants are exiting.

It looks ugly but these patterns show up near cycle bottoms.
The market is quietly resetting for the next phase.

Watch the full video in the comments.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

So now the US Gov has reopened, what's next?

Expect a few days for TGA spending to begin to significantly add to liquidity and should persist for several months.

Obviously, QT ends in Dec and the balancesheet will crawl higher.

We should see the dollar begin to weaken again.

The next key step is to avoid a Year End funding squeeze. Expect several "temporary" measures to add liquidity. Term Funding and SRF operations are most likely.

That will eventually morph into the desperately needed changes to the SLR to allow banks to absorb more issuance and re-lever their balance sheets. This is a big liquidity bazooka. Expect in Q1.

SLR should lower rates as banks buy more bonds.

Also expect CLARITY Act for crypto to begin to get finalised.

There will also be stimulus payments and the Big Beautiful Bill fiscal goosing.

China will contonue balance sheet expansion. Europe will add fiscal stimulus or extra spending.

The debts must be rolled and the Gov wants to super heat the economy into the Mid-Terms.

This is the Liquidity Flood.... the spice must flow.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The reason government programs are so inefficient is that, unlike a commercial company, the feedback loop for improvement is broken, because they have a state-mandated monopoly and can’t go out of business if customers are unhappy.

No matter how bad the service is at your DMV (sorry to pick on DMVs), you still have to use your DMV, because it’s a monopoly.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close.

If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that.

REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.

Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it.

This is not offset by the ability to drain the Reverse Repo (it is drained). And QT drains it further.

This is hitting markets and in particular crypto which is the most liquidity driven. TradiFi asset managers have had one of their worst years of performance vs benchmark and are now having to chase markets and that is allowing tech to be more stable than crypto. 401K flows help too. If this liquidity drain keeps going longer, stocks will get hit hard too.

However...

As soon as the gov shutdown ends, the Treasury begins spending $250bn to $350bn in a couple of months. QT ends and the balance sheet technically expands.

The Dollar will likely begin to weaken again as liquidity begins to flow. Tariff negiotiations will have largely been completed, removing uncertainty

Ongoing bill issuance increases, adding more liquidity via bank balance sheets and money market funds (and stable coins).

Ongoing rate cuts (we will have economic weakness from the shutdown that will add to the evidence that rates need to come lower but no, there is no recession)..

SLR changes free up more of the banks balance sheets allowing for credit expansion.

The CLARITY ACT will get passed, giving the crypto regs so deserately needed for large scale adoption by banks, asset managers and businesses overall.

The Big Beautiful Bill then kicks in to goose the economy into the midterms. The entire system is now being geared toward a strong economy and strong market in 2026 for these elections.

China will continue to expand its balance sheet. Japan will work to strenghten the Yen, and also fiscally stimulate.

The ISM will rise as rates fall and tarrif uncertainty drops away.

You just need to get through the Window of Pain and The Liquidity Flood lies ahead.

Always remember the Dont Fuck This Up rules...and wait out the volatility. Drawdowns like this are common place in bull markets and their job is to test your faith.

BTFD if you can.

td:dr - When this number goes up, all number go up.

[Jamie Coutts CMT @Jamie1Coutts]

Central Bank balance sheet tightening, a defining feature of this cycle, could be about to turn with the Fed ending QT.

This doesn't equate to QE-style en masse liquidity injections, but its still liquidity-positive.

Mild stress in the repo market is one symptom of a system that is dangerously collateralised due to accelerating debt issuance.

The Spice Must Flow.

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

I can see all of Fintwit back to hurling insults at each other again, so I figured I’d share my view and try to be a voice of reason, even if I end up being wrong.

It’s my job to stick my neck out. I’ve been doing it for years, and I’m still here.

For what it’s worth, I think Bitcoin is forming another broadening wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish setup (chart 1).

We’ve seen plenty of these in the past, and right now we’re testing the lower boundary of support.

Another thing to note is that this bull market is officially 2 standard deviations oversold on the log regression channel (chart 2).

Unless the bull market is over, which is not our view, these levels are about as good an opportunity as you’re going to get to add to this market.

Also worth pointing out, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands have only been this tight three other times in its entire history (chart 3)…

What does that mean?

We’re in a mega low-vol environment…

Right now, the bands are as tight as they were in September 2023, just before a 200% rally.

That move lasted from September through March 2024, with a 20% correction in January before prices rallied another 90%.

The next chart shows the last three times Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bandwidth was less than or equal to 22, along with the forward twelve-month returns (chart 4).

The sample size is small, but the results have been extremely positive…

It’s the classic beach-ball-underwater dynamic. The harder you push it down, the more explosive the move when it finally breaks free.

All in all, we need to do better when times are tough. It’s not just your hopes and dreams caught up in this trade, it’s ours too. Fintwit can be powerful when you follow the right people who are genuinely trying to help. We’re not gurus, but we’ve been doing this a long time, built comprehensive frameworks, and we’re doing our best to share what we’ve learned.

At the same time, there’s a ton of poison and hate out there. Avoid it. When times get rough, we should rally around each other and stay focused on the big picture.

This is a 70-vol asset. If you can’t handle that level of volatility, this asset class might not be for you. If you don’t believe in crypto and the life-changing tech it brings, it’s hard to stomach the swings.

The only way to survive this kind of volatility is to extend your time horizon. When you think in days or weeks, every move feels like life or death. When you think in months or years, it all fades into noise.

Once you stop fighting volatility and start embracing it as a feature of this space, everything changes. Volatility turns into opportunity. It’s a gift that lets you add to your conviction.

Our view remains that Q4, once the dust settles, will be bullish, and we’ve done a ton of work to support that view.

That’s the best I can leave you with on days like this.

Good luck out there…

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

I keep seeing investment strategists talking about the disconnect between equity prices and the economic fundamentals…

Don’t forget what I’ve said before:

Wall Street has done well because liquidity has been rising. That is exactly why we stayed bullish after calling the cycle lows back in Q4 2022.

But Main Street is the ISM, and the ISM = earnings. That is why P/E ratios look expensive right now. The “P” is being driven by debasement (liquidity), while the “E” tracks GDP.

Multiple expansion without a rise in E is fine as long as earnings eventually play catch up.

The rally off the Q4 2022 lows front-loaded valuations. That put the burden on 2025 and 2026 to deliver the earnings growth to justify the 2023/2024 valuation premium baked into equities.

The good news?

Earnings revisions are booming.

Once you understand The Everything Code, the whole thing becomes remarkably clear and simple…

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

This is how you survive...

[Fiat Archive @fiatarchive]

FORMER FINANCE PROFESSOR TAD SMITH: "After 25 years teaching finance, I realized at 58:

If the money printer grows 8-10% annually and the S&P 500 returns ~9%, it’s just treading water. True wealth comes from outpacing the printer.

That’s the Bitcoin journey."

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

The banana is bigger than you can handle…

[CryptosRus @CryptosR_Us]

EVERY RESERVE CURRENCY HAS AN EXPIRATION DATE 💵 ⏲️

Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead: reserve currencies last ~100 years & the dollar won’t be forever.

He sees a decade or two before rivals like China & Russia hold $BTC in reserves. Why? No country wants its life savings in an asset the US can “just cancel.”

The strategic #Bitcoin reserve era is coming.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Im not sure you are ready for the utter madness... I sure as hell aren't ready... but we will run with it and see what happens...

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Ex-central-bank money (a private-money proxy) is growing rapidly- and it’s a global trend.

Those focusing narrowly on central-bank liquidity are missing the bigger picture.

Full flash update on RV Pro (@RealVision) soon—you won’t want to miss this.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

When the FED cuts - it is because the Economy is weakening (and they finally realize it).

That is not "Early Cycle".
That is "Late Cycle".

And the FED is always late - both in rate cuts and hikes - as they use lagging indicators to set Fed Fund Rate.

So, when FED cuts expect Bad Times ahead!

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The credit impulse is turning positive.

That is not what you see in a slowdown folks

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

People can stare at inevitability, and still be in denial. 🤷‍♂️

Don't fight the future. Adopt it early.

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

There were signs.

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

All you had to do was: nothing.

Patience pays.