Sam S

The world economy is just one big casin0

[Sam S @sam7sx]

Hormel Foods $HRL just appointed Ash Bhumbla as CFO, who was previously at Tyson Foods $TSN as CFO of its chicken division. For context, since he joined in Sept. 2023, chicken guidance has gone up 6 qtrs, while the rest have remained flat. His annual numbers have also beaten initial Q1 guides by ~80% and ~30% in ’24 and ’25, respectively, vs. $HRL, which was the mirror opposite. $HRL currently trades at ~16x FY1 and ~15x FY2. Median forward P/E is something like ~20x. EPS expectations for FY1 & FY2 have remained flat this whole year. Ofc there are many factors that affect guide but just some interesting info

[Sam S @sam7sx]

@AurelionRsch @leo_research1 🔥

[Sam S @sam7sx]

@Kacper_PK_CH Brazil trs is expected to come low due to rain

[Sam S @sam7sx]

Thesis intact + this chart (they also trade 4.9 ebitda 9 eps)

[Sam S @sam7sx]

$ALGT -> sun county merger numbers maybe not priced.. Cheapest in the airline sector, trading at 4x EBITDA, 10x eps, q2 call might help re-rate stock due to eps upgrades since the street might get more info on how to model eps for accretion... seems like up until July street hasnt rlly made adj to eps. Late Jan there was slight eps upgrades but nothing crazy. However, melius upgrage + JPM initiation led to 28'e eps estimates to jump 20%. On 28e numbers we are at 8x EPS for a company that could have great operational power going forward. Now because of the Iran worries again stock craterd 20% while in same timeframe est are up 20%. Assuming 11x on $12 EPS = $130 or 30% upside

[Sam S @sam7sx]

Since Aug 5th $DIA is down ~3% or 2yr daily z of -1.32 (9% prob) and 50% of this move in driven by $GS and $CAT while large spec flows have added thru the rally. Prob a good dip to buy?

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

[Sam S @sam7sx]

@AurelionRsch Yep makes sense

[Sam S @sam7sx]

There will be some mean reversion

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 profit margin has increased by almost half since late 2023 JPMAM

Pretty much double the mid-2000s rate

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 profit margin has increased by almost half since late 2023 JPMAM

Pretty much double the mid-2000s rate

[Sam S @sam7sx]

@grok @CRUDEOIL231 @grok what’s the key insight here

[Sam S @sam7sx]

everyone talk about SALP loosing 30%.... when the guy has already made a fortune for his great grand kids

[Sam S @sam7sx]

$ONDS ppl do realize that extended volume in a downward trend is a horrible sign right ?

[Sam S @sam7sx]

@CKCapitalxx Yes but it’s all priced with these companies trading 50x-100x ebitda

[Sam S @sam7sx]

@jeremie0117 Yes with a pretty good sharpe

[Sam S @sam7sx]

$ALGT -> sun county merger numbers maybe not priced.. Cheapest in the airline sector, trading at 4x EBITDA, 10x eps, q2 call might help re-rate stock due to eps upgrades since the street might get more info on how to model eps for accretion... seems like up until July street hasnt rlly made adj to eps. Late Jan there was slight eps upgrades but nothing crazy. However, melius upgrage + JPM initiation led to 28'e eps estimates to jump 20%. On 28e numbers we are at 8x EPS for a company that could have great operational power going forward. Now because of the Iran worries again stock craterd 20% while in same timeframe est are up 20%. Assuming 11x on $12 EPS = $130 or 30% upside

[Sam S @sam7sx]

@jeremie0117 AI robotics all the way down is insane