International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions

International Expert Group is a leading platform for promoting sanctions against Russia. Working papers, comments, and statements.

[Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 @evgen1232007]

Wow...the balance in the treasury accounts has dropped to 3.840 trillion. THAT'S THE LOWEST IN 3 YEARS!!!!

It's noteworthy that in December the balance was 12 trillion rubles, and now it's 3.84 trillion!!!!!

[Vladyslav Vlasiuk 💙💛🇪🇺 @vladvlas]

so what we see in a 2026 Shahed UAV

STMicroelectronics 30th week of 2025
Analog Devices 30th week of 2025 (if not a conterfeit)
Future Technology Devices International Ltd. 20th week of 2025
Infineon Technologies 19th week of 2025
various Chinese parts of 2026-2025

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

exactly

[Financial Times @FT]

The jumps in the Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil price benchmarks actually understate the degree of dislocation, writes Alphaville's Robin Wigglesworth. Look at the long-term prices of Dubai and Omani oil to see the bigger picture: https://t.co/1ZsLuEFK3N

[Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo]

The Russian oil taxes for February 2026 are out, they 6,12% higher than January 2026 but are 62,1% lower than February 2025. The slight increase from January is the average price for Urals in January ( which is used to calculate February taxes ) was 40,95 USD per barrel.

[Janis Kluge @jakluge]

Germany's intelligence service BND says Russia's federal budget deficit was actually 3.6% in 2025, not 2.6%. This was exactly my final estimate in early December, based on spending patterns of the past. If true, the deficit was probably hidden in other public budgets.

[Vladyslav Vlasiuk 💙💛🇪🇺 @vladvlas]

CRP antenna for Shahed aka a 🇨🇳 antenna for harvest combines)))))

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

Russia’s federal budget deficit reached ₽3.45 trillion ($23.4bn) in Jan–Feb 2026 — over 90% of the full-year deficit target (₽3.79 trillion) already spent in just two months. The key driver: oil and gas revenues collapsed by 47% y/y, falling to ₽826bn.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

A comprehensive maritime services ban would also be a strong response to schemes designed to hide the origin of Russian oil — ship-to-ship transfers, reflagging, opaque intermediaries. Instead of chasing evasion tactics, we restrict capacity at its core.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

Russia’s economy and budget are in their most vulnerable state since the full-scale invasion. Yet the Kremlin keeps targeting civilian infrastructure and refuses serious negotiations. This is the moment to increase pressure — not ease it.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

That would translate into roughly a 35% drop in budget revenues compared to 2025 — with further decline thereafter. For a war economy heavily dependent on oil income, this is a systemic shock.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

))) what happens when he is sanctioned?

[Peter Heine Nielsen @PHChess]

FIDE President Dvorkovich cheering for Russian🇷🇺 athletes next to fans with Soviet shirt and flags at the winter olympics.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

Cement sales in Russia fell nearly 30% y/y in January — an all-time low. Cement production dropped by almost 10% in 2025. Even after seasonal adjustments, this points to serious trouble in construction. Demand has been falling since 2024, signalling a structural slowdown.

[Janis Kluge @jakluge]

Russian industrial-scale production of drones has changed the character of the war in Ukraine last year. From 2024 to 2025, drone attacks rose 5x, from 11,000 to 55,000.

[Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 @evgen1232007]

In Russia, 1,020 trillion rub were spent to rescue state-owned banks.
2024 - 311 billion rub
2025 - 1020 billion rub

Funding received:
- VEB - 407 billion
- Sberbank - 94 bil
- VTB - 293 bil
- Gazprombank - 196 bil
- Sovcombank - 30 bil

The banking system is collapsing

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

Russia’s car market shrank in value for the first time in a decade, despite rising prices for both new and used vehicles. In 2025, the passenger car market fell 7.8% to ₽13.8 tn — a clear indicator of sanctions-driven stress in the Russian economy.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

Now officially: Russia’s 2025 oil & gas budget revenues fell to ₽8.48 tn — 23.8% lower than in 2024, per the Finance Ministry. The problem: export volumes are unchanged. Time to go after volumes — a full maritime services ban.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

Bottom line:
Stronger sanctions on Russian oil and LNG are geopolitically effective, legally feasible, and economically aligned with US interests — while directly reducing Russia’s capacity to fund the war.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

Recent US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are already having a tangible impact.
The Urals discount widened sharply (≈$25–30/bbl range), while tanker freight and insurance costs increased, directly cutting Russia’s net export revenues.

[International Expert Group on Russian Sanctions @sanctionsgroup]

The same logic applies to Russian LNG.
Russian LNG undermines new US projects like Plaquemines (LA) and Corpus Christi Stage III (TX).
Sanctioning Russian LNG and accelerating Europe’s phase-out would secure markets for US LNG.