Shifting Sands Report

Geopolitics | Trade | Energy | Macroeconomics | Historical echoes in a changing world order

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

Tolling of Hormuz isn't without historical precedence. The Danes tolled the strait of Øresund from 1429-1857.
Under threat of cannon fire from Helsingør. Ships seeking access to Baltic trade, paid the toll.

Mercantilism+multipolarity=weaponized trade routes

[Reuters @Reuters]

The battle for Hormuz risks sparking the next Iran clash https://t.co/OMNKHMKl48 https://t.co/OMNKHMKl48

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@MarioNawfal Oh the lies… its just so apparent and in your face!

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@rickjeff78 @sunnyright I think they’re just playing good cop bad cop. Trump has been using salami tactics in the SoH. And Israel has been doing the same in Lebanon. They’re just trying to see how far they can push it to retain this slow cook. Because the US is afraid of going back to all out war.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@WarMonitor3 Exactly right, they had a strategy in place and stuck to it, they have made good on all threats and red lines. In stark contrast to Trump’s constant extension of deadlines and ultimatums, shifting and TACOing.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@biral_r Yes, seems Trump just wants to stay in limbo, he’s afraid of renewed war due to the repercussions and he’s afraid of the deal that’s on the table due to the humiliation. He seems content just waiting for a hail mary option to come along.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@tparsi Doubt Israel is going to listen, but anyway I think the US and Israel is much more coordinated than they let on. And this split is just to play good cop-bad cop. They have been trying to salami slice their way into control of Hormuz, now they tested Iran’s resolve regarding Leb.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@WarMonitor3 Yeah because they listened all the other times…

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@OilHeadlineNews He’s such a retard to think we are all just as stupid as him

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@BrettErickson28 @AmitSegal Exactly right!

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

Iran has launched a barrage of ballistic missiles toward northern Israel.

It’s going to be hard to avoid a new spiral of escalation now. Every tit-for-tat exchange risks pulling all parties deeper into the conflict.

This round of war may see wider destruction than the last one.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran launches multiple ballistic missiles from Kermanshah in western Iran toward northern Israel, with early warnings now issued for parts of Haifa, per IDF.

Israel's Home Front Command has issued nationwide emergency guidelines effective immediately.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Defence_Index Well its good that he eventually understood this, would be best if he had done some research beforehand.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@s_m_marandi The US is probably making them do this to inhibit the Iranian players’ capabilities physically and psychologically, because they already suffered a military defeat and they’re scared to suffer a second defeat in a potential match.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@WarMonitor3 You don’t really need an official source to tell you that… just common sense.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

This is a test of detterence. They’re resolve is being tested in the strait of Hormuz and now by Netanyahu in Beirut. If they don’t make good on their threat, that invites more infringements. Expect a resumption of war this week, its gonna be hard to TACO out of this one.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC is now ready to execute "Operation True Promise 5" against Israel tonight, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having authorized the full-scale resumption of war and Iran's Supreme National Security Council convening an emergency session, saying a "painful and decisive response" will come in response to Beirut strikes, per Iranian state TV.

Iran has issued an evacuation warning to all residents in northern Israeli territory to immediately leave, with coordinates of Israeli targets now transferred to missile units.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

Iran promises to strike Israel.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

BREAKING 🔴

Iran promises to Strike Israel.

Rezaei, spokesman for Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee: “The Zionist regime will face a painful and decisive response for its attack on Dahiyeh. Watch the skies over the occupied territories tonight.”

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Defence_Index Trump as usual performing a masterclass in Orwellianism:

War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@Nostre_damus

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@DaveHammon12948 @Osint613 Iran isn’t an Island, they border 7 countries + Caspian sea in the north, and several ships transiting to China has reportedly breached the blockade. Saying 100% rev is cut off, is ridiculous. You can’t take what CENTCOM says at face value. Propaganda during war is the norm.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@DaveHammon12948 @Osint613 During the Iran-Iraq war they suffered 500,000 casualties, it was a war of attrition that lasted 8 years. In the tanker wars phase they lost 50% of oil revenues, and kept on fighting. Its just been 100 days, US intelligence leaks claim they kept ~75% missiles and launchers.

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@andrepaltry Haha sorry

[Shifting Sands Report @SandsReport]

@TheIranianzg3z Renewed fighting is a guarantee now, its the logical move for Tehran. US is trying to salami slice their way into controlling SOH. Netanyahu is crossing Iran’s red lines in Leb. They’re testing Iran’s resolve and willingness to escalate. No answer leads to bigger infringements.