sanjay lunia

[Ajay Srivastava @ajaydgft]

1/ Why is the INR falling despite India’s strong growth, large forex reserves and moderate interest rates?

Because exchange rates are driven not just by growth but also by capital flows, interest rate gaps, import pressures, and investor perceptions.

2/ To explain this, economists use the idea of the “Impossible Trinity” or “Trilemma,” proposed by Robert Mundell and Marcus Fleming in the 1960s.

It says a country cannot simultaneously maintain:
• Stable exchange rate
• Free capital flows
• Independent monetary policy

A country can effectively choose only two.

3/ India today faces this dilemma.
The RBI is trying to slow the rupee’s fall by selling dollars from forex reserves, while also keeping interest rates relatively moderate (5.25%) to support growth.

4/ But if Indian interest rates are not kept sufficiently above (+2%) U.S. interest rates (4.5%) , global investors move money to the U.S. for higher and safer returns.

That increases demand for dollars and puts pressure on the INR.

5/ This is why even strong GDP growth and large forex reserves do not automatically guarantee a stable currency.

Global capital moves where returns look safer and more attractive.

6/ The INR is also influenced by market perception.

If investors believe India in FY 2027 faces:
• Rising import bills
• Slower growth
• Sustained capital outflows

they may start betting against the rupee. Its largely perception game about future.

7/ In Forex markets, perception itself can become a force.

Expectations of weakness can trigger more outflows, which then cause further depreciation — creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

8/ Stabilizing the INR is therefore not only about selling dollars or adjusting interest rates.

India also needs strong policy signals that improve investor confidence, strengthen manufacturing competitiveness, reduce import dependence and reassure markets about long-term economic stability.

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

@DTDCIndia was supposed to deliver my parcel on 16/05 — no delivery attempt. Then promised delivery on 18/05 — again nobody turned up. I contacted customer care again on 21/05 and was assured delivery by 24/05. Still waiting. no escalation contact. Very disappointing service.

[MrBanks💰 @Mrbankstips]

Triplets but one has already established himself as a leader

[Paul S. Conyngham @paul_conyngham]

https://t.co/bpa3HHt8Mg

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

@MoCA_GoI PNR—84TZPIY

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

@makemytripcare why do you impose cancellation penalty for My daughter flight cancelled by Air India travel date 1/3/26 Mumbai to Newark ? Contacting your number leads to a dumb AI agent repeating the same message when asked for reason for penalty !!

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

Present world…..

[Newton Bank Kumar @idesibanda]

If any Bank posting Insurance Targets, tag @nsitharaman & @rbi Guv.

Also share details of foreign Trips, Parties & Gifts received by Top executives by Insurance Companies.

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

Seeing President Macron running on the streets of Mumbai, two things stand out:
1. No visible convoy, minimal security, just blending into the city and doing his thing.
2. The fitness level. Leadership needs stamina as public life is demanding.
And think of our politicians 🙈!

[Mindset Machine  @mindsetmachine]

The Golden Rule when you're learning a new skill‼️👇

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

My Op Ed in Financial Express:" Botox Sahi Hai", in Mint :"How I hope our Bull ages like Kareena Kapoor instead of Michelle Pfeiffer"
& Other Year end
Reflections from the Snow

Your reflections, Bachha & Buddha Party? 🥳

https://t.co/B3hzitceed

[Economic Times @EconomicTimes]

"#Trump wants a vassal like #Pakistan. #India refuses to behave like one." That blunt assessment from Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), captures the essence of the #US-#India #trade saga: it’s less about #economics than #geopolitics. https://t.co/jMy9eFdNc2

[Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul]

Trump is clueless on the US hypocrisy on trade with Russia. Who are his advisors? Has he been kept in dark? Terribly sad, if true.

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

@nid_rockz #LT How about sequential result ?

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

@sandipsabharwal “Disappointing to see you rush to defend Boeing and Air India. In the Lion Air 737 Max crash too, the pilot was blamed first—until Boeing’s failures were exposed. Let’s not repeat history. Mixing corporate loyalties with death and despair is a dangerous game!

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

conveniently forget to mention that FAA issued warning regarding switches malfunction- whose upkeep was responsibility of Air India ! When corporates are involved - Boeing and Air India- individual ( pilot) have no voice. No wonder pilot was blamed for crash of lion air 747 Max!

[sandip sabharwal @sandipsabharwal]

Preliminary Report indicates Pilot Error as potential cause of the #AirIndiaCrash

While they are not saying conclusively the series of events in the 30 seconds points to that.

While the sad tragedy has played out this could potentially rule out Engine Failure Issues and reduce the fear of flying which had set in.

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

If a small trader like me could sense something was off, how did NSE & SEBI’s “surveillance” miss it?

Did they raise alarms? Ask questions?

This wasn’t volatility — it was a red flag. And they stayed silent.
Markets deserve better.
#SEBI #NSE #JaneStreet
(2/2)

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

Took this screenshot on 17 Jan 2024 — some Bank Nifty option strikes shot up over 10,000% in a single day. It felt absurd — pure ultra-speculation.

Now SEBI says Jane Street manipulated markets on this exact expiry.

What actually happened that day?
(1/2)
#JaneStreet #BankNifty

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

RT @AamAadmiParty: अहमदाबाद के विमान हादसे में डॉ. अनिल और उनकी पत्नी का परिवार भी शिकार बना। इस हादसे के समय उनकी ढाई साल की बेटी और Maid…

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

@markwhatney00 @airindia @DGCAIndia @MoCA_GoI Let me know if your parents need help - may share their number if anything needed

[sanjay lunia @sanjay199]

Boarded @airindia AI191 (Mumbai–Newark, 12:10 am, 12/06/25). Delay first blamed on bad weather. Later told AC system was faulty and under repair. After 4 hrs onboard, all passengers were asked to deboard. Extremely disappointing. @DGCAIndia @MoCA_GoI