el tigre

[el tigre @santrydon]

@Vignesh_2508 The final nail in the coffin would be the slow death of the PKD division.

[el tigre @santrydon]

AK Murthy & Velu show the M@llu lobby their place.

[Maahaa Chamasya @mosquitomani]

சிறப்பான தரமான சம்பவம் by @ThePMKOfficial, creating Salem division and including CBE in it..🔥
Mellu Commies still kadharifying even after two decades

[el tigre @santrydon]

Even Rjd has a better electoral track record. DMK, with its entire ecosystem and resources, along with the empty buildup by RW, still ended up losing to a novice. And as you said, it’s only a fallback option for Tamils.

[Nilavan @nilavantweets]

Dmkians are not understanding that their party is a back up party for TN people. It was never their first preference. That's the reason ADMK ruled more than you. When ADMK is down, people immediately searched for alternatives and forced you not to continue for 2nd term.

[el tigre @santrydon]

@VENKATESAN9798 If Bjp retains UP,Dmk will try to be with Nda in 2031 .
Admk will also be there

[el tigre @santrydon]

Soft launch has started. Waiting for the UP results, and in 29, they’ll be standing alone. If the BJP wins, 31 is inevitable

[Nilavan @nilavantweets]

DMK has money & resources to fight alone n 2029 and think no hurry to join NDA in the next elections itself as no time NDA has won the elections here. Will take up congress betrayal as the core theme of the elections.

[el tigre @santrydon]

@taiganeon If yes, it depends on how he positions himself.

[el tigre @santrydon]

Make Ramnad LS reserved by reserving Aranthangi AS,Tenkasi general by making S.Kovil AS general & in KK PC, shift x-majority P. Puram AC areas like Ponmanai,Thiruparappu to Vilavancode, making it 50%+ H.This could open South TN for BJP,but it isn’t as ruthless as INC in mapping.

[sub-narmadan @4point2KILOyear]

Delimitation is a GOLDMINE that can be and NEEDS to be exploited by the BJP.

All the big metros, agglomerrations of never-ending urban sprawls and their suburbs and all tier 2 cities and district places have seen an explosion in the demography favourable to the BJP and will continue to do so for the next 15-20 years.

Except TN, the BJP+ stands to gain from urban & semi urban centers. Much of BJP's electoral prowess in such areas gets diluted due to overcrowded LS seats acting as a votesink.

Maximise on these catchment areas, it's a once in a century chance to do something that would eventually & ultimately put H interests (a subset of this ppln) at advantage. These small things matter in a FPTP and UAF' nerfed system as ours.

Only thing that BJP needs to do alongside is - ensure sustainable civic infra and governance at local bodies.

[el tigre @santrydon]

@VENKATESAN9798 Women will move away only if issues that directly affect and resonate with them such as law and order and inflation during the previous DMK government

[el tigre @santrydon]

Can this be countered by a broader opposition arithmetic?

[Nilavan @nilavantweets]

Vijay fanbase treating TN Assembly like a movie release. Instant clippings flooding X & Insta the moment someone from TVK speaks, memes by evening. This level of organised frenzy can’t be matched by regular parties. You can't counter a cult with cadre… you need another cult.

[el tigre @santrydon]

@VENKATESAN9798 Yes

[el tigre @santrydon]

@sv_jackiechan Opposition

[el tigre @santrydon]

TVK has occupied the “Others” space, but the OBC space remains open, with too many takers but no clear face. Unless TVK makes a Konaseema name-change-like blunder by Jegan, it remains comfortable with women voters, who can act as an additional cushion

[Dharmavenkatesan K B @VENKATESAN9798]

@santrydon Thought on these initial months of the new government and its direction
From my very basic observation
Polarisation is peaking and may set the state back significantly.
Would love to get your thoughts please.
Thanks

[el tigre @santrydon]

@Vignesh_2508 The larger point is that it brought together arch-rivals the Kammas, Kapus, and Obc Setti Balija/Goudas across the Godavari region against Jegan

[el tigre @santrydon]

@sv_jackiechan MNM 2.0

[el tigre @santrydon]

@Vignesh_2508 Even if Sindadripet, Periamet, and Mannady are annexed and made into a single constituency, or Kajamalai is added to Srirangam, the DMK still cannot win those.

[el tigre @santrydon]

DMK should not have any say in boundary mapping, unlike during the 2008 delimitation, when favourable ghetto's were added to its advantage. Of course, it no longer has the social support base to demand that now.

[el tigre @santrydon]

@timeout_7 🙏

[el tigre @santrydon]

DMK is winning Thiruvarur because of the consolidation of votes in Koradachery Union. The moment TVK finds a suitable candidate from the Devendra Kula Vellalar or Sozhiya Vellalar community, the myth of the DMK bastion will be busted.

[MacroMatrix @MacroMatrix1]

DMK true Bastion is Thiruvarur seat.

Time & tested constituencies nobody breaks this seat.

Booth. Margin difference win
1. Palaiyanur. 72%
2. Alivalam. 70%
3. Velukudi. 67%
4. Sithankudi. 66%
5. Ohaiperaiyur. 65%

Even more minority booth DMK scored well.

Dalit ward, Muslim ward way higher vote percentage.

DMK made strategy mistake by making Stalin to contest in Kolathur.

Thiruvarur is time & tested true bastion given by Kalaignar to Stalin and they have missed it.
@TVKVijayHQ @arivalayam

[el tigre @santrydon]

TVK would have an easy victory with Esakki as its candidate, as DMK lacks a strong contender in this constituency. However, if TVK is planning for the long term, it should consider moving him to Tenkasi district, where it lacks a prominent face and performed poorly in the 2026 .

[MacroMatrix @MacroMatrix1]

Ambasamudram 2026 election result analysis

This constituencies is Bastion of ADMK. They have won 8 times (1980, 1984, 1991, 2001, 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026).
DMK have won only 2006.
As I mentioned in past whichever seat DMK knows they cannot win they have given this seat to Congress.

2026 Result analysis
ADMK - 169 booth they have won
DMK/INC - 80 Booth
TVK - 70 Booth
NTK - 0 Booth

ADMK strong booth
1. Kodarankulam - 46%
2. Bramadesam - 45%
3. Pirancheri. - 43%
4. Melaseval - 43%
5. Mannarkovil - 40%

DMK/INC strong booth
1. Pathamadai- 50%
2. Karisalpatti - 48%
3. Chokkalingapuram- 38%

TVK strong booth
1. Manjolai - 78%
2. Karukurichi - 35%
3. Ambasamudram- 32%

ADMK wins rural Village belt it sweeps small interior panchayat karisulnthamangalam, Thirupudaimaruthur, Desamanickkam

INC/DMK wins pathamadai, Muslim/Christian pockets ulangankulam, Karisalpatti, Chokkalingapuram

TVK runs second almost everywhere but sweeps western Ghats estate Manjolai.

It will be tough for TVK in by-election against ADMK.
For TVK all depends on local cloud of Essaki Subbaiah + Congress need to pull the Muslim/Christian pocket for TVK.
@TVKVijayHQ #DMK #ADMK #NTK #Seeman #Congress #Ambasamudram

[el tigre @santrydon]

@taiganeon Too early, but early signs are not too enthusiastic

[el tigre @santrydon]

It won't be surprising if the ''casteless'' Kallar gets an opportunity to contest from Thanjavur in 2029.

[Oneindia Tamil @thatsTamil]

‘தவெகவின் வெற்றி சாதியை
ஒழித்துள்ளது! வியப்பு!’- தவெகவில் இணைந்த பின், இந்திய கம்யூனிஸ்ட் கட்சியின் மூத்த தலைவர் சி.மகேந்திரன் பேச்சு

#CMVijay #TVK #CPIMahendran #PoliticsToday #Oneindia #OneindiaTamil