Sarah

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore @ton_9613 Or inverse Cathie Woods. She has an amazing miss rate that should be inverted

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore The fact that the put call interest is at 1.4 when MU is at $815 and a 5x forward P/E is just astonishing. What the heck is the market thinking???

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore @Infosponge2020 @CoffeeMoon16 I can't believe topology has uses in investing! I've always been an applied math person, because it has wonderful uses in real life. I'd love to hear one day how this pure math idea of topology has relevance in investing

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore It's not necessarily that big of a mistake. Shorting costs for Lucid got very high in the past few months, so there was substantial risk from that too.

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore Second the advice on Wispr Flow. AI online dictation is an absolute game changer. The accuracy will absolutely surprise you. Note, there is a big difference in quality between online and offline AI dictation. The online AI dictation will feel like magic, offline not so much

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore Thanks. It's wild to see that they're so wrong on Meta. I know most equity research is basically useless, but man it's like they're looking at a completely different business. How in the world do they think Meta is gonna decline next year is beyond me.

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore Why do you think there's such a big difference between the street's forward PE concensus for Meta (which is at around 21-22, forecasting a decline) vs yours at 14?

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore @S80724Sin Forgive me for asking something that seems silly. But what's the difference between flawless execution and priced for perfection?

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore Whoa! That's a massive signal of confidence for how high it will get in the future!

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@STK1x1 @alojohhardcore @GeorgKlausner Not AJ but for the kind of trades AJ is doing, using derivatives is much more costly than margin because for options one pays extra for the benefit of never being margin called. Then there's the bid ask spread that eats a lot into every trade. And there's also a liquidity problem

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@pbeisel I think you made a mistake on the part saying saving hundreds of pounds of wires. The total weight of wires in most cars is far less than a few hundred pounds. I think you mean saving hundreds of meters of wire.

[Sarah @saradventures2]

Does Tesla simply "print" additional shares by diluting existing shareholders to give as stock based compensation to employees? How does this compare to other mega cap companies? Do they print shares or use cash to buy stock, such as from past stock buyback, then give the stock to employees?

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore Very important Elon sphere news and analysis here. Thank you

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore @stevenleebeyer1 Technological dead end, whoa, that's major if true. This would explain a lot why 4680 production doesn't seem to be ramping at all these 1-2 years.

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore @stevenleebeyer1 Wait what? The Chinese told Tesla about their own design's flaw? 🤣🤣🤣

[Sarah @saradventures2]

I like this analysis a lot. One of the things I realized is that a lot of things Elon says have huge caveats. For example when he says 4680 has become the lowest cost cells, what he doesn't mention is that 4680 is the lowest cost cells after including government subsidies, compared to other cells with tariff added. The raw manufacturing cost of 4680 is definitely not the lowest cost. Trying to figure out what these caveats are is annoying with Elon. Often times we simply can't

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore This is the kind of news analysis I wish I could read more of. Really good perspective on the current situation

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@SimObjReality @alojohhardcore Hi Austin, can you explain what you mean by "options premiums stop tracking price action"? Thank you

[Sarah @saradventures2]

@alojohhardcore Historically believing what Trump says about what he's gonna do has been correct, buy stocks, do tariff, take out Maduro, etc. Do you think Trump will deliver on his promise of much lower interest rates with the new fed given the current situation?

[Sarah @saradventures2]

It depends on your risk tolerance. I believe it is prudent to be extremely risk adverse with options, so I'd say nothing under 1 year of expiry in order to be able to ride out unexpected downturns and not pay the nose in time premiums. Something like a June 2027 $180 is not bad at all from a cost perspective. It gives 3x leverage for an effective interest rate cost of 19%. That's quite cheap for options since getting 3x leverage through margin would require ~11% interest rate and there's no margin call on options. Although technically this isn't the same thing since the leverage of a call option declines as the price of the stock goes up, but the leverage of margin stays the same regardless of stock price.