_The Architect

l enjoy analyzing data | GAMMA, delta, vanna charm analysis | Not Financial Advice | Thank you for your support~ NEVER CHART AGAIN :). 📈👑

[_The Architect @sastocks92]

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[_The Architect @sastocks92]

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[_The Architect @sastocks92]

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[_The Architect @sastocks92]

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[Adam May @A_May_MD]

I won't share in depth pitches like $NKTR often (2/year?). Only with really compelling setups. I've got another one now. The market says PoS is VERY low and that upside could be 10x+. Like with $NKTR, I think the data say success is far more likely than the market thinks.

The name is $ABVX (Abivax).

[_The Architect @sastocks92]

@Lee407271363063 Great

[_The Architect @sastocks92]

@Richardtcroce70 Yes

[_The Architect @sastocks92]

@seanking483345 Considered XRP ?

[Garcia @GarciaCap]

Stocks today in a nutshell

[Garcia @GarciaCap]

"Palmer Luckey Destroying Jason Calacanis." Colorized, 2026

[Garcia @GarciaCap]

Anduril founder @PalmerLuckey shares a quote from Vladimir Putin in 2007 and does a great impression in a recent talk with @cdixon

“There’s a great quote by Putin where he says ‘The country that wins in the sphere AI will become the ruler of the entire world’”

*Bond villain voice* “THE RULER…OF THE ENTIIIRE WORLD!!”

“I would kill for a US leader to be that far ahead. Could you imagine if you had somebody come out—I won’t even name who—in the White House and said:

‘WE HAVE TO HOLD THE LAGRANGE POINTS. SOMEONE HAS TO HOLD THE HIGH GROUND IN ORBIT. THE LUNAR INSERTION AND TRANSFER PADS MUST BE PROTECTED IF WE’RE GOING TO EXTRACT RESOURCES FROM THE BELT…ASTEROIDS’”

[Chris Hoeger @DataDInvesting]

I know it's a little delayed, but this is my full Q1 2025 $SoFi earnings Review

There are a lot of pretty charts to look at for those interested.

https://t.co/CGm0YuOO5I

[Chris Hoeger @DataDInvesting]

DDI $SOFI Q2 earnings preview is posted

https://t.co/3bWSHQHfCM

[Chris Hoeger @DataDInvesting]

There are several times that $DUOL has sold off at hard on fears of AI disruption. I bought every time. It was the right decision every time. I'm buying again now.

The first time was October 2023, the stock was around $175 when $GOOG's Google Translate can use AI to help people learn English (sound familiar?). Over the next two weeks it sold off to $142, a 19% drawdown. I added shares, It popped on its next earnings to over $200 for the first time ever.

The second time was the release of ChatGPT 4o when they debuted their real-time language translation in May 2024. The stock had been around $250 and it dropped back down to the $170s, about a 30% drawdown. I kept adding shares and it continued its weakness and got all the way down to $145. Earnings kicked off a rally that persisted for the next 3 months and it pushed over $300 before its next report.

The third time was June and July of this year, when the collective internet has determined that they will be disrupted. The stock went from around $540 all the way down to the $330s, a 35%+ drawdown. They also faced a Duolingo boycott because people freaked out about their AI-first policy.

In response, in Q2 they put up the their strongest growth quarter in over a year with 41% growth. They also posted record TTM FCF margins of 37%. The stock popped all the way back up to $468 and then GPT 5 did a demo of a language learning app the same day and it sold back off intraday from $468 to $390. It has continued to sell off and Google Translates' recent demo of language practice in their app led to today's 6% drop.

I have highlighted all these "disruptive" moments on the chart below of the company's fundamentals. None of those disruptions have actually done anything to disrupt their consistent exponential growth and expanding margins. You can't see any of this "competition" in the execution, the growth, or the margins.

Disruption and competition ALWAYS hits growth or margins if it's actually happening. Duolingo is putting up record growth and record margins.

I understand how AI can eat away around the edges at their business, but it doesn't affect the core thesis which is very simple:

People use Duolingo because the LIKE using Duolingo. People pay for Duolingo because they feel good about paying for a subscription to use their time doing something PRODUCTIVE that they ENJOY. Duolingo's competition is NOT GPT 5 or Google Translate. It's Instagram and TikTok. Only when you use Duolingo, you actually feel good about yourself, which is why people come back.

GPT 5's game doesn't have 16,000 A/B tests backing up its design. Google Translate's practices do not help people stay engaged and motivated for months and years. Those are the moat, and those aren't being attacked right now.

In my opinion $DUOL around $300 is an opportunity to add shares of the most consistent SaaS company in public markets at a discount to where their fundamentals say they should trade. I bought in October 2023 after AI fears. Those shares are very profitable. I bought in May 2024 after AI fears. Those shares are very profitable. I am adding here and I expect that in a year, I'll revisit this post and those shares will be very profitable.

I might be wrong, maybe this time really is different, but I don't think so. I think the Owl continues to deliver.

[Chris Hoeger @DataDInvesting]

$DUOL

Give me a realistic bear case given the following facts:

1) $Goog Translate debuted real-time translation in 2016

2) Real-time translation built into headphones was a launch feature of the OG Google Pixel Buds in 2017

3) AI has been able to teach people a language since it was released three years ago. $DUOL's 3Y revenue CAGR is 42.5%

4) 80%+ of new users come from word of mouth, not marketing

5) Here is the complete list of companies who have a market cap >$10B, a 1Y revenue CAGR of 35%+, a 3Y revenue CAGR of 35%+, and a free cash flow margin of 35%+:

$NVDA and $DUOL

That's it. That's the entire list.

6) Here is YoY revenue growth since going public. You will not find a more consistent grower than this.

7) Here are their TTM FCF margins since going public. You don't grow margins like this as you get disrupted by new technology while growing around 40% the whole time.

8) They just launched a new subject (Chess) that has over 1M daily active users in less than a year, and hasn't even launched on Android yet, only on iOS

9) Over 10M people have used Duolingo every day for over a year

10) They have a proprietary data set of over 16,000 A/B tests run across over a decade that they can utilize to optimize their user's experience.

[▲GÉMINIS▲ @geminis_hn]

✨♊️✨

[Boca Juniors - La12Tuittera @la12tuittera]

✅💙💛💙

[Boca Juniors - La12Tuittera @la12tuittera]

✅Bancar más que nunca en este momento doloroso.