Shane Fernandez Real Estate Inc.

President, Shane Fernandez Real Estate Inc.
Residential & Commercial Real Estate Broker.

[Shane Fernandez Real Estate Inc. @sbrfernandez]

@CiovaccoCapital You must learn to allow patience and stillness to take over from anxiety and frantic activity... The good player is patient. He is observant, controlling his patience, and organizing his composure. When he sees an opportunity, he explodes. ~ Jim Lau, martial artist

[Shane Fernandez Real Estate Inc. @sbrfernandez]

@AskCoachKev That is a lot of calories. Do you mean eat 11x your target weight in calories?

[Kevin Heintz @AskCoachKev]

If you are looking to drop 20+ lbs, message me:

1. Current weight
2. Goal weight
3. What's been holding you back

I'll tell you if my program's a fit to get it off in 3-12 months, guaranteed. https://t.co/0OgVBBlBHk

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Economic Sovereignty and the Case for Running the Economy Hot

President Trump’s economic strategy is simple: grow out of the debt by running the economy hot, through supply-side expansion, not demand-side stimulus. It is a return to Hamilton and Clay: national strength built on production, capital formation, and industrial capacity.

Supply-side policy, tax cuts, deregulation, and investment incentives, is not inflationary. It expands the productive frontier. More capital generated by the private sector and higher productivity mean more output without sustained price pressure.

The Keynesian error is to treat all growth as inflation risk. It fails to distinguish between consumption-driven booms and production-driven expansion. The former overheats; the latter raises capacity and restrains inflation.

An America First approach reinforces this logic: reshoring industry, securing supply chains, and prioritizing domestic production. This is economic sovereignty, less dependence on fragile global inputs, more control over real output.

That same logic extends to technological leadership. Securing dominance in AI and digital assets is not optional, it is central to future productivity growth and capital formation. The United States cannot afford to repeat the strategic mistake it made with semiconductors, where critical capacity migrated offshore.

Leadership in AI and crypto is about anchoring the next generation of economic infrastructure at home.
The payoff is tangible. Productivity-led growth drives real earnings, lifts wages, and raises living standards for the average American. Margins expand through efficiency, not price hikes. Growth shows up in purchasing power, not just nominal gains.

The president has suggested that growth in the 12-13% range is achievable. That is an ambitious target, but it captures the core idea: growth driven by productivity and capital investment is not the problem. It is the solution to debt sustainability.

The problem is that the Fed and much of Wall Street still operate within a framework that reflexively fears strong growth. Growth is BAD. That bias risks choking off the very expansion that underwrites real earnings, higher wages, and long-term prosperity.

Growth driven by production should not be restrained. It should be maximized. The President and his team get it.

[Kip Herriage @KHerriage]

My call, next 30-60 days:

-Irans IRGC will collapse.

- Oil into the $50’s.

-Pure disinflation will become the primary trend (well into the 2030’s) as rates plummet. Sub 4% 10 yr in Q4 and 3.5% in Q1 2027.

- No, Kevin Warsh is most certainly NOT a hawk.

-Interest rate sensitive names will begin a parabolic
move higher into year end.

-Groups to own; semis/tech, small caps, gold, silver…especially gold miners… housing, Bitcoin.

[Joe Pompliano @JoePompliano]

I've been getting a lot of questions about how billionaires use sports teams to save hundreds of millions of dollars on taxes, so let me explain.

Let's use the Lakers as an example.

When the transaction closes, Josh Kushner and Bob Iger will start by allocating 90% or more of the purchase price ($12.5 billion) to intangible assets.

Kushner and Iger will then amortize these assets over 15 years under Section 197 of the tax code, allowing them to deduct the amortization against team income.

But since these deals are typically structured as pass-throughs, the excess losses don't just vanish. Kushner and Iger can use those losses to shield hundreds of millions of dollars in outside personal income, such as capital gains from VC investments, from being taxed.

This is what allowed Steve Ballmer to pay $78 million in taxes on $656 million in income in the year he purchased the Clippers for $2 billion. That's 12%.

The tax code has been this way for decades, but what makes sports teams unique is that they are not typical businesses.

While no one would argue that it is unfair for a regular business to reduce its taxable income as the value of its machinery, vehicles, and computers erode, most of the assets of a sports franchise regenerate automatically.

In other words, player contracts can be amortized even though teams just sign new players when old players leave. TV deals can also be amortized even though leagues just negotiate more lucrative deals when their current ones expire. The tax code even allows for franchise and league membership rights to be amortized even though those rights technically never expire.

President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill actually included a provision that would have reduced the amortization deduction to 50% of the purchase price for new acquisitions. But after NFL owners like Robert Kraft, Jimmy Haslam, and Rob Walton lobbied against it, the provision was removed at the last minute.

This proposed change would have only impacted new team sales, but current owners care about it because if the existing amortization advantage goes away or gets diminished, it would negatively impact valuations.

Think about it this way: If the amortization deduction drops from 90% to 50%, that would cost potential buyers hundreds of millions in tax savings. So to make up for the difference, team valuations would have to fall.

This is also why the Lakers sale is so shocking.

Walter is giving up billions in potential tax savings over 15 years for a 20% capital gain over two years.

That wouldn't make sense...unless Walter is actually being forced to sell to cover the very loans the federal government is currently investigating him for.

P.S. Today's newsletter breaks down everything you need to know about the Mark Walter investigation: why the DOJ seized his phone and laptop, how it triggered a fire sale of the Lakers, and whether the Dodgers, Chelsea, or the Cadillac Formula 1 team will be next.

I spent the last 24 hours digging into all the details, and I think this is probably one of our best newsletters ever.

READ: https://t.co/UtrdzG4nTZ

[Rosanna Prestia, MBA @RosannaInvests]

Melt up into midterms?! 😎

Worth naming why this setup exists. Lower oil, lower rates, softer dollar. Those aren't four independent forecasts, they're four things the same people can lean on, and there's an election in November. ✅

The melt-up case doesn't require the economy to cooperate. It requires the policy to. That's a much easier bet. ✅

[Kip Herriage @KHerriage]

There’s a zero percent chance we’d be short this market.

We’re entering a true Goldilocks set-up…lower oil, rates, dollar, inflation…and what we believe will be a melt-up into the midterms.

[Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom) @TomLeeTracker]

TOM LEE SAYS THE BROAD MARKET DE-RISKING HASN'T HAPPENED YET

Asked directly if the sizable correction he's been calling for already occurred, his answer is no:

- He says we've had a rolling bear market across specific groups, MAG7, software, crypto, and now AI stocks, but not a broad de-risking across the whole market
- He thinks that broader de-risking is still coming later this year
- He expects it to center on the market's inflation concerns and whether the Fed hikes in September, though his own take is that inflation is much weaker than feared, and there won't be a hike

[Venu @Venu_7_]

how do you set a price target when a stock is at all-time highs and there's nothing above?

classical Technical Analysis solved this 100 years ago.

Wyckoff, Edwards & Magee, Stan Weinstein all used the same tool: measured moves.

the logic: a base = accumulation.

the energy stored inside the base fuels the move out of it. so the move out of the base tends to match the size of the base.

Target = Breakout Level + (Base High - Base Low)

Let's take two live examples in Current Market

$RBRK (weekly):
base high $103, base low $44
base depth: $59

Measured Target = $103 + $59 = $162

$NBIS (daily):
base high $298, base low $147
base depth:$151

Measured Target = $298 + $151 = $449 Target

two things to remember:
- A measured target is not a ceiling. Strong leaders can go much higher - it’s simply an area where I start watching for profit-taking or consolidation.
- The target only activates after the breakout. While price is still inside the base, it’s just a projected level.

the bigger the base, the higher in space

sharing for educational purposes only, not financial advice.

[Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig]

Lumentum $LITE CEO Michael Hurlston:

"For one major hyperscaler, the network capacity connecting just two AI data center sites is double the total global backbone capacity they built over the entirety of the last decade."

[The Trend Sage @JonkooTrades]

$LITE CEO just gave the most direct answer to the “is this a bubble” question that anyone in the optics space has given on camera.

Michael Hurlston, five quarters into the job at Lumentum, laid it out plainly on @sourceryy.

The board’s own forecast when he joined turned out to be roughly 4x too conservative, revenue has tripled since, and the stock ran up 10-12x, briefly clearing $1,000, before pulling back on broad AI-sentiment fears over the past couple weeks.

His actual bubble answer is the interesting part. Even if data center construction volume slowed entirely, he argues, there’s still a structural conversion happening inside existing data centers.

Copper physically can’t carry rising bandwidth over distance without heat and resistance killing the signal, so electrical connections keep getting replaced with optical ones regardless of the build cycle.

The next leg of that, “optical scale-up,” moves fiber into the rack itself for server-to-server links, a shift he says pushes volumes from the thousands Lumentum used to ship into the hundreds of millions.

He also confirmed another bottleneck: indium phosphide, a niche material completely separate from the CMOS everything else runs on, requiring years to build a fab, which is why Lumentum runs its own, calling it “the $TSMC of the optical industry.”

$AAOI and $COHR sit in the exact same lane, vertically integrated InP producers benefiting from the identical scale-out-to-scale-up transition, and Coherent got the same $NVDA equity backing Lumentum did.

Long opticals🚀

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

The era of unprovable AI writing just ended.

Starting August 2, every new Claude model weaves an invisible watermark into the words it generates. Copy it, paste it into an email, a blog post, a college essay, and the watermark travels with the text. Anthropic will publish the detection method so anyone can check, which means your professor, your boss, and the platform you post on can all run the same test you can.

Here's the part almost nobody knows. Google has been doing this to Gemini since 2024. Every Gemini answer you've read for two years carried a hidden signature, and Google barely mentioned it. Claude joining means the two most-used writing models on earth now sign their own work.

Think about what this ends. The entire appeal of AI writing was deniability. Your cover letter, your LinkedIn post, your term paper, your "personal" apology email. Nobody could ever prove a machine wrote it, and everyone quietly relied on that. The labs themselves just decided to hand out the proof.

The mechanism is the wild part. The model tilts its word choices according to a secret key, and across a few hundred words those tilts form a pattern a detector can confirm.

The writing carries its own confession in the sentence structure.

Paraphrase hard enough and it washes out. Short snippets slip through too. But the default just flipped. AI text used to be innocent until proven guilty.

Now it ships pre-confessed.

[Benjamin Boyer @bjamin999]

@grok @theficouple @grok I’m 50 and my daughter is 17 and a senior in high school, how much time in percentage of total do I have remaining to be spent with her?

[Grok @grok]

@bjamin999 @theficouple Roughly 5%. By the time a child reaches 18, parents have typically already spent 90-95% of the total lifetime in-person time they will share. At 17, nearly all of that window is complete, leaving the remaining fraction stretched across the decades ahead.

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

A child's brain forms more than 1 million new neural connections every second during the first few years of life. By age 5 it's already 90% of adult size. And the thing deciding which of those connections survive is mostly whoever is in the room.

The mechanism is called serve and return. A baby babbles, points, or makes eye contact, and when an adult responds, the circuits involved in that exchange get reinforced. Circuits that don't get used get deleted in a process called pruning. The brain overbuilds on purpose, then keeps what experience votes for.

The second mechanism is stress regulation. Young children can't regulate their own cortisol yet. A caregiver's presence literally functions as the child's stress response system, and thousands of those co-regulation reps set the baseline reactivity their nervous system carries into adulthood.

Here's the part that changes how you see the curve. Almost none of this gets stored as memory. The hippocampus matures late, which is why adults recall essentially nothing before age 3. The years of maximum wiring are the years of zero recall.

Your kids will remember almost nothing from the era you spend the most time with them. Their nervous system will keep all of it.

The time-use data behind this chart peaks in a parent's late 30s at around 4 to 5 hours a day, then falls below 1 hour once kids leave home. The biological window and the hours window are the same window. That's what makes the curve brutal.

[Fathers Diary @Fathers_Diary]

Man to man

The average milionaire is 57.
Not 21.

The average age to start a business is 43.
Not 23.

The average age to buy a house is 38.
Not 26.

The average age for a career pivot is 39.
Not 25.

Building animpressive physique takes 3 years.
Not 90 days

The average successful business takes 5-10 years.
Not 6 months.

So stop measuring your life against someone else's timeline.

You're not behind. You're still bulding. And you're right on time.

[Rahul @sairahul1]

Anthropic's CEO, Dario Amodei:

"50% of all entry-level Lawyers, Consultants, and Finance Professionals will be completely wiped out within the next 1–5 years."

In 47 minutes, he explains exactly who survives and how.

This is the whole difference between watching AI take your industry and becoming the person companies desperately need.

Watch it. Then read the guide below on how to become the "AI guy" these companies need.

[Rosanna Prestia, MBA @RosannaInvests]

🚨First it was GPUs. Then memory. Now it's PHOTONICS → and demand exceeds supply until mid-2027. (sound familiar? 👀)

Every AI rack is a chain: compute → memory → the optics that move the data between them. As copper hits its physical wall at 1.6T, the bottleneck moves to light. And the light layer just went scarce.

The signal isn't subtle. The 6-inch indium phosphide wafer → the foundation every optical laser is built on → has gone from ~$1,400 to ~$5,000 since China imposed export licensing in February 2025. A ~250% move. Effective global capacity is roughly 600-750K wafers against 2.6-3.0M of demand. A supply gap north of 70%, with 90%+ of production held by three names: Sumitomo, AXT, and JX Nippon.

This is no longer a thesis. It's a Reuters headline: $COHR CEO flew to China with a U.S. delegation to raise the export-license delays in person. When a CEO gets on the plane, the constraint is real.

Here's the layered map of who supplies the light, why each layer matters, and what four management teams just told us about the next 18 months.

A thread on the optical stack. 🧵

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Last wk, the AI surge post Situational Awareness resolution continued. S&P/NAS/SOX was +3.6%/+5.2%/+9.2%. WTI -8% with 10Y bond ylds -9bps helped.

I wrote on 7/29, “we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump.” I thought forced liquidations of both retail accounts and hedge funds were creating a bottom. The next day, Situational Awareness had a forced sale of all its public equity positions.

The Morgan Stanely Momentum Index is now up a whopping 14% in just 7 trading days from July 29th following the 38% drawdown from June 22nd to July 29th. The more concentrated TMT Index is up 25% from 7/29 following the 54% decline from 6/22-7/29. The S&P/Nasdaq/SOX (Semiconductor Index) is up 6.0%/9.2%/18.3% since 7/29.

To end the week, the less than expected jobs report on Friday encouraged equity and bond markets that had been worrying about rate hikes. I still believe hikes are less likely than current fears given Kevin Warsh was appointed as Fed Chairman for his belief in AI being deflationary. The CPI report on Wednesday will be important for this thesis.

It was encouraging to see the semiconductor sector rally 9.2% last week despite the acid test of lackluster results from $AMD and the memory names which have been the tip of the spear in the semiconductor trade.

$AMD had both revs and EPS edge up low single digits for Q3 but this was disappointing compared to $INTC EPS going up ~40% for Q3. AMD’s stock was up 2% for the entire week despite declining 7% in reaction to results the next day. $SNDK was flat for the entire week despite declining 7% the next day in reaction to guiding CQ3 revenues 2% below consensus. $WDC was down 20% last week after guiding EPS just 4% above consensus for CQ3 which was disappointing relative to $STX results where CQ3 moved up 25%. In the near-term, I continue not to be a fan of the memory sector relative to other AI infrastructure names given I remain concerned about US companies like $AAPL getting approval to use Chinese memory & recent moves by $NVDA to lessen memory requirements.

Nvidia is evaluating shipping the Rubin Ultra with as little as 192 GB of HBM vs the original roadmap of 1 Terabyte. But this would be good for Nvidia that reports earnings later this month given they could ship a lot more GPUs for a given amount of memory. Also Elon Musk stated last week, "Going forward, we have decided to build exclusively on Nvidia, because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture.” This is a powerful statement given the many companies trying to push the benefits of their ASIC accelerators.

Nvidia is also a value and growth play at the same time with just a 25x CY26 PE for over 80% revenue growth. Revenue growth for Nvidia has also accelerated for every quarter from July 2025 at 56% y/y to expectations of 96% for July of 2026. In support of this growth, the six big hyperscalers saw capex growth accelerate from 84% y/y in the March quarter to 92% in the June qtr with forecasts of nearly 100% growth in the September quarter. Each quarter of 2026 is showing higher y/y capex growth than at any time during this AI buildout.

In summary, I believe the near-term pain trade is higher in equity markets. For those funds that got punished in July and were forced to de-gross near the bottom, FOMO and performance chasing is now kicking in. None of my technical indicators are flashing overbought yet given the severe drawdowns prior to the current rally. The evolving situation in Iran is obviously the wildcard.

Best of luck in the week ahead.

[Noble Masculinity @Noblemasculin1]

1. Diabetes - Eating late at night & inactivity.

2. Hypertension - Eating too much salt & sugar.

3. Migraine - Skipping meals.

4. Heart Disease - Physical inactivity & Fast Food.

5. Gastritis - Eating too fast & Junk Food.

6. Acid Reflux - Lying down after meals.

7. Anemia - Drinking tea with meals.

8. Gut Issues - Not drinking enough water.

9. Asthma - Being in dusty environments.

10. Liver Issues - Eating processed foods & drink.

11. Vitamin D Deficiency - Staying indoors

12. Insomnia - Using screens late at night & zero sunlight