When @respeculator published this on $29M.AX the stonk was 24c...maybe 4 weeks later it is 34c...๐ฅ๐ฅ
does the man ever miss? โโ if you aren't reading his stuff you are fighting w/ one hand behind your back...
https://t.co/efT9frgJHq
I genuinely believe $NAMM could be the most fundamentally mispriced #gold stock I have ever found.
I've analyzed Namib Minerals for more than six months, actively trying to find the catch.
The hidden dilution. The broken asset. The financing trap. The reason the market values it this cheaply.
I still haven't found it.
Instead, the deeper I dig, the more extraordinary the setup looks:
~7Moz gold resource base
Producing mine at How
~2.5Moz Redwing restart already under development
World-class >7โ8 g/t grades at Mazowe
How expanding processing capacity
All inside a tiny NASDAQ-listed company.
And the valuation is staggering.
At roughly ~$80โ90M equity value, Namib controls around ~7Moz of gold resources, roughly $12โ13 of market cap per resource ounce.
Management is guiding for $50โ62M of adjusted EBITDA in 2026 at $4,500 gold.
That means the entire company is valued at only around ~1.3โ1.8x guided EBITDA, before giving meaningful value to the development upside at Redwing and Mazowe.
And this isn't a pre-revenue explorer.
How is already producing. Redwing is actively being advanced toward restart, while Mazowe adds another exceptionally high-grade development asset.
Together, they provide a credible path toward a 150โ350koz/year three-mine gold platform.
You're essentially paying an explorer-like valuation for a producing gold company already advancing two additional mines toward production.
Meanwhile, junior gold peers with fewer ounces, no production and years of financing ahead routinely trade at multiples of Namib's valuation.
But what I think almost everyone is missing is the REFLEXIVITY:
Gold โ
โ How cash flow โโ
โ Redwing/Mazowe NAV โโ
โ $NAMM rerates
โ cost of capital collapses
โ only after the stock reaches the ~$11.50 warrant strike, up to ~$214M of fresh capital can be unlocked at that much higher valuation
โ financing risk โ
โ far less need for dilution at low prices
โ Redwing/Mazowe development accelerates
โ production โ
โ NAV โ
โ $NAMM โ again
The rising share price can actually improve the fundamentals that justify an even higher share price.
That's the feedback loop.
Now combine that with an extremely tight effective float, highly concentrated strategic ownership and full NASDAQ accessibility.
We've already seen what happens when serious volume hits the stock: violent squeeze-like moves.
Now imagine that same supply/demand imbalance during a major gold bull market, while the fundamentals underneath it are simultaneously getting stronger.
I'm not calling $NAMM a 100-bagger.
BUT from an ~$80โ90M starting valuation, the combination of gold-price leverage + production growth + multiple expansion + an extremely tight float + warrant-funded growth + reflexivity creates extreme upside scenarios that are mathematically plausible.
And I don't need anything remotely close to those scenarios for the thesis to work.
If management keeps executing at the current pace and gold keeps running, the market may be dramatically underestimating what Namib Minerals can become.
It could get ridiculous very quickly.
$NAMM
$HUM.AX Humm Group ๐จ๐จ
EGM has been called, please see below for all info related to the meeting.
https://t.co/ac6UbwxRpF
I plan to deliver superior, near- and mid-term value to shareholders if elected.
Letโs end the governance (and stock price) disaster now.
Bought the domain https://t.co/wjBwBjdcZy last summer and have been grinding on it ever since. Itโs still early days, but nice to see the first signs of traction. Hopefully itโs the website getting better and not just the gold and silver buzz ๐
After 2 years of using ChatGPT, I can say that it is the technology that has revolutionized my life the most, along with the Internet.
So here are 10 prompts that have transformed my day-to-day life and that could do the same for you.
I hope youโll join me for my next spaces - Iโll be speaking with @goldhartcopper CEO Isaac Maresky
Tues Dec 9 @ 5pm MT
$HART.v - an impressive team with some very promising projects, located in Chileโs Maricunga-Vicuรฑa #gold#copper belt๐ฅ
https://t.co/NUzLcRS1rF
I'm speaking at @MetalsInvtForum (Metals Investor Forum) on Feb 27-28 in Toronto. I invited these 5 companies as my guests. They all have 10+ bagger upside potential at $5K gold. Nice lineup! ๐ง
1911 Gold @1911goldcorp
Talisker Resources @Talisker_Ltd
Santacruz Silver @SantacruzSilver
Scottie Resources @ScottieCorp
Lahontan Gold @LahontanGold
Finally completed a write-up on a sizable position of mine. It took me longer than it should, but thereโs real meat to the bone as this name is barely covered anywhere.
Posted to my grand total of 98 subscribers.๐Link as usual in my bio.
Iโve got time the next few days and want pushback. Replies/DMs welcome. Company thread on X will follow tomorrow.
Here are the stocks that I currently own and why I own them.
$ALCO โ Land-rich citrus grower transitioning to residential dev. $247M mkt cap vs $500M+ land value. Greening disease + hurricanes killed the orange biz. Now theyโre selling dirt at a premium. Still cheap.
$AXR โ Owns 17,000 acres in Rio Rancho, NMโAlbuquerqueโs only expansion path. Land + location + tight supply = pricing power. Growth city, defense/tech hub, zero analyst coverage. Target: $40/share.
$BUKS โ Aerospace & casino operator in Dodge City. Yeah, weird mix. But casino is a cash cow, aerospace is booming (rev +15%, op inc +70%). I bought it under NAV. Still think itโs a $2+ stock.
$DG โ COVID retail darling turned margin mess. Stock went from $250 to $68. I bought the fear. Not a typical deep value play, but might ride the rebound. Debating whether to hold or sell.
$EVC, $GTN, $TGNA โ Legacy TV broadcasters with hidden spectrum value. If FCC kills station caps and allows spectrum sales, weโre looking at a full rerating and M&A wave. Multi-bagger optionality.
$GENC โ Special situation. Auditor change โ delayed filings โ 50% stock drop. But the biz (asphalt plant equipment) is strong and needed. Once filings normalize, this rebounds.
$NLOP โ Former WPC REIT spinout. Bad debt load, but theyโve paid down 73% in 12 months. Nearly profitable, could start returning capital soon. Market isnโt paying attention.
$PDER โ Land, coal, almonds, timber. Yup, itโs real. Met coal volumes rising, Portugal almond farm hitting stride, hardwood prices up. Housing/tariffs could reignite timber. Totally off the radar.
$PRTS โ eCom auto parts. Destroyed post-COVID, but still has 100M+ web visits, top eBay store, and $94M in inventory. Dirt cheap. Could get taken out.
$UNFI โ Mgmt overhaul, cutting fat, paying down debt. Cyberattack crushed it back to $21. Re-bought. Margin expansion = $40โ$60 target. I think it gets there.
This is what I actually own right now. No backtests. No slides. Just real capital in real names. If you want my latest deep dives, subscribe to The Value Road.