Scott Bade

Tech & geopolitics @EurasiaGroup; @fp4America Next Gen. Past: @TechCrunch, @MikeBloomberg, @StanfordCISAC. Alum:@Stanford, @LSEnews. Views my own.

[Scott Bade @scottabade]

In reflecting on the dozens of prices I’ve edited for the TechCrunch Global Affairs Project, I’ve come to a simple conclusion: the U.S. needs a technology doctrine that would allow it to leverage its tech assets for geopolitical gain. https://t.co/uJ00IDsRXG

[Mike Bloomberg @MikeBloomberg]

Great to meet NYC's homegrown star, @AlvaradoJose15. But next time, Jose, just call me. Let’s go Knicks!

[Jim Sciutto @jimsciutto]

Substitute NATO allies for the GOP and the alliance itself for the midterms, and I’ve been hearing the very same from European officials for months.

[Phil Gordon @PhilGordonDC]

The fact that so many proponents of the Iran war are criticizing Trump’s looming deal is less an indictment of the deal than it is of the war. It means they can't defend the results of the policy they advocated for so long so are reduced to claiming that victory would have been around the corner if only Trump had stayed the course... (which only they seem to believe). They are right that the deal will leave the US worse off than before the war but fail to recognize, or at least refuse to admit, that the mistake was the war, not the deal.

[Rush Doshi @RushDoshi]

Trump administration indeed pausing arms sales to Taiwan.

Unclear what, if anything, Beijing offered in return.

Allies will see it (rightly) as further evidence that the US approach to Beijing is conciliation and accommodation.

[Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro]

With all due caveats about a deal that has not been announced yet, some thoughts:

The US-Iran deal being described in the news is a weak deal, and the net result of this war is significant damage to US strategic interests. That said, since the war was a mistake from the beginning, we can at least be thankful it appears President Trump is moving, belatedly, to end it.

This war was ill-conceived in every respect. There were no clear strategic objectives, and no way to achieve most of the objectives mentioned at an acceptable cost.

After the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and the global economic crisis started to spread, reopening it became the most important objective.

That meant Iran had far greater leverage than we did.

So President Trump faced only terrible options, of his own making. The deal being reported is among the less terrible options he could have chosen. At least he is not choosing to escalate the war, which would cause an even greater global economic crisis.

The least terrible deal would have been a verified opening of the Strait -- and nothing else. Keep full sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, maintain watchfulness and deterrence established in the 12-Day War last June, and try to negotiate a significant rollback of the program and intrusive inspections.

This deal is weaker than that. It reportedly provides $25 billion in unfrozen assets without receiving any concessions on the nuclear program. That money will give the regime a lifeline and help it begin restoring funding to its proxies. And there are no guarantees that Iran will make meaningful concessions on enrichment or HEU once those talks do start.

Those talks, which will likely drag on, may well take place without a credible US military threat backing them up, as the United States labors to recover from all it expended and lost in this campaign and shore up other strategic priorities (IndoPacific) that have been set back, and as US midterm elections approach.

Meanwhile, the deal says nothing about Iran's ballistic missile program or its support for proxies. Yes, US and Israeli strikes degraded, but did not eliminate, many Iranian attack capabilities. But overall, Iran has gained significant leverage for the future by demonstrating it can control the strait, by attacking its neighbors and US bases in the region and causing significant damage, and by taking the United States' and Israel's best punch and surviving with enough ability to project aggression in tact.

It's a bleak day for US strategic interests. But it's better than continuing the war and making it even worse.

Once the dust clears, one thing must not be forgotten. The Iranian people continue to live under a vicious regime. Trump has barely spoken of them in weeks. They deserve help, support, and appropriate non-military external pressures on the regime to give THEM the best chance to change it.

The Administration, which put so much faith in military power to do what it could not, should invest in Iran experts, communicators, Persian language broadcasting, transition planning, diplomacy, and more aimed at supporting the Iranian people in their quest for freedom from tyranny.

That was true in January when the Iranian people were demonstrating for their freedom. And it is still true today, despite this stupid war.

[Ilan Goldenberg @ilangoldenberg]

Could have had all of this and probably better without a war that came with tremendous civilian suffering,
major global economic damage, and spending huge amount of weapons stockpiles needed for future fights.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

The US did manage to kill Iran's leader, a historically cautious decision-maker with a healthy respect for US military power, and replace him with a collective leadership dominated by military figures who believe the most effective means of ensuring Iran's defense is taking the global economy hostage while turning the Persian Gulf into a live fire zone.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

if concluded, trump-iran deal arguably the least worst outcome available to president trump.

except for:

1) agreeing to those terms months ago.

2) not having gone to war in the first place.

or

3) not having withdrawn from the iranian nuclear deal.

[Scott Bade @scottabade]

Either Trump is either serious, in which case this is terribly irresponsible, or he’s not, in which case he’s diminishing the word of the presidency— while he’s on the way to a summit with Xi, no less! Terrible message either way.

[Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz]

After six months and nearly 1,000 cases, the South Carolina measles outbreak is officially over.

How'd they do it? "Measles vaccinations were the most effective single containment tool."

https://t.co/X6nwGEulc3

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

orban getting absolutely hammered, as expected, in hungary.

after 16 years of incompetence, mismanagement and europe’s most kleptocratic governance by a long margin…a historic win for the hungarian people.

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

This is huge!

No drama of trying to steal the results!

No need for Hungarian civil society to mobilize and protect their votes!

Complete victory for democratic renewal in Hungary.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

after his electoral loss, orban offers a parting lesson to the americans by conceding defeat.

[Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀 @BonnieGlaser]

Taiwan’s deepening political polarization increases its vulnerability to exploitation by China. Beijing stands to benefit when Taiwan’s internal divisions undermine trust in democratic institutions or raise doubts in Washington about Taipei’s strategic reliability. 2/

[David Santoro @DavidSantoro1]

NASA's budget needs - deserves - an increase, not a decrease.

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

Bibi has been fruitlessly begging US admins to bomb Iran and unleash the animal spirits of regime change for decades, like some shitty startup striking out with traditional VCs, over and over again — and like the savvy CEO of a shitty startup idea, he finally found a dumb-money septuagenarian family office to fork over a huge check. Genuinely embarrassing shit.

[Dean W. Ball @deanwball]

Actually it’s worse: a private company now has incredibly powerful zero-day exploits of almost every software project you’ve ever heard of, and the government is telling *basically every major firm in the economy* not to work with them.

Historians will gasp at the idiocy.

[Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum]

Two weeks ago, the Hungarian opposition was bracing for a false flag operation, an "emergency" that would allow Viktor Orban to turn the tide or even cancel an election he is losing. Now it appears to have arrived

[Bianna Golodryga @biannagolodryga]

Interesting detail from @brett_mcgurk this morning on the U.S. military’s highly sophisticated rescue capabilities: He told @jaketapper that when Iranian President Raisi’s helicopter went missing in 2024, Iran secretly called the U.S. for help.

[Thomas E. Ricks @tomricks1]

This is close to a dissent