Scoutsan815

"That's baseball, Suzyn."

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

May continues to underwhelm as a Brewer and yet there is nothing wrong with his stuff whatsoever. I think Murphy will have a quick hook with May to keep him from going off the rails.

Pivetta's Achilles Heel: The FF and pitch counts. The FF is his primary pitch at 50%+ usage, and from our earlier breakdown RHB hit .500/.750 SLG against it. It gets CRUSHED because he's not elevating it enough.

Don't chase his K stuff. Foul pitches off, extend ABs and make him come back to the heater.

That's Milwaukee's game anyway: walks, contact, traffic and pressure.
And they've done exactly that to SD.
Game 1: MIL 3-2
Game 2: MIL 4-3
Now they get Dustin May. The 4.70 ERA isn't pretty, but against these Padres this year: 22 IP, 1.23 ERA.

MIL has beaten them twice without needing the long ball to carry them. Same formula tonight: work Pivetta → get into the bullpen → keep applying pressure.
🍺 Barrelman gets the last round.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

NLDS GAME 3 PICK: BREWERS 🍺🧹
MIL @ SD | 9:30 ET / 6:30 PT
Petco Park
Dustin May vs Nick Pivetta
Brewers going for the sweep.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

Sale’s sweeper is the "problem": 40% usage, 18% SwStr, 36% CSW vs RHB, 0 HR allowed. He throws it for strikes/whiffs in the zone and gets whiffs out of the zone. It's not just a chase pitch.

So LA needs to hunt the four-seamer early.
Sale throws it 41% of the time, lives up in the zone and RHB have done their real damage there: 8 HR off the FF vs ZERO off the sweeper. Also the FF has more sinker shape with 15"IHB and 8.9"IVB.

Don’t chase the sweep. Don’t let him dictate the AB. Attack 96 when it leaks into your zone and run up that pitch count.
Then let Yamamoto keep this thing tight.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

NLDS GAME 3 PICK: DODGERS 🔵
LAD @ ATL | 6 ET / 3 PT
How do you beat an absolute video game boss in Chris Sale? Don’t play his game.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

Schlittler: 15-6, 1.89 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 31.8% K. His arsenal starts with premium velocity revolving around a four-seam and sinker around 98 MPH. However, his last start showed a slight change.

Against Boston, Schlittler increased his curveball usage to 27%, generating 8 whiffs, 44% CSW and a 58% chase rate. Establish the heat, then change the hitter's timing and eye level with the curve.

As for "Fastball," Freddy, (Peralta) has improved, but he's still hittable. He's not in the same tier as Schlittler.

For NYY, this feels like the old '90s Yankees formula: make it a six-inning game.
From the 7th inning on, Yankees pitching finished 5th in MLB with a 3.45 ERA, while their 58 HR allowed ranked 10th-fewest.

That's the formula tonight:
6 from Schlittler.
3 from the pen.
Series tied 1-1.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

ALDS GAME 2 — NYY @ TB
⏰ 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT
🏟️ Tropicana Field
Cam Schlittler vs. Freddy Peralta
NYY to even the series.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

Williams has overpowering stuff with 248 K this season and 80 K over his final 51 IP, but there’s volatility.

His approach is consistent to LHB/RHB's: 98+ upstairs, breaking stuff below. The sweeper/curve live down, while the sinker works primarily arm-side.

CWS can stack 7 LHBs, but Williams has actually dominated lefties recently: .176 AVG / .265 SLG with a 44.2% K rate.

Fastballs are vulnerable:
4-Seam vs RHB: .286 AVG / .619 SLG / .433 wOBA
Sinker vs RHB: .273 AVG / .636 SLG / .431 wOBA
Sinker vs LHB: .800 AVG / 1.800 SLG / .695 wOBA
The blueprint: Don't chase the breaking stuff below the zone. Make Williams bring the velocity to you.
When his command is there, he can dominate. When it isn't, things can unravel quickly with 3 of his final 10 starts featured more runs allowed than innings pitched.

Both teams have deep bullpens, so the real advantage for Cleveland is its legitimate five-man rotation: Williams, Messick, Griffin, Bibee and Cantillo. That depth should allow the Guardians to shorten games without overtaxing their relief corps.

But that advantage only matters if the starters perform. If Cleveland can't get quality innings from its rotation, they've essentially wasted the biggest edge they have in this series.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

ALDS GAME 2 — CWS @ CLE
⏰ 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT
🏟️ Progressive Field
Anthony Kay vs. Gavin Williams

Williams for the W, but with the recognition of there being volatility here.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

This matchup lines up too well for Milwaukee.

Jacob Misiorowski was arguably the most dominant starter in baseball: 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 252 K, .157 BAA. He already carved up San Diego once this year — 7 scoreless, 10 K.

On the other side, Robbie Ray has been inconsistent since joining SD. The biggest problem tonight is the walks.

MIL isn’t a HR-or-bust offense. They hit .258 with a .341 OBP and 668 BB while hitting only 154 HR. They win with patience, contact and traffic — exactly the kind of lineup that can make Ray’s command issues snowball.

Give me Miz → Milwaukee bullpen → Brewers Game 1.

PICK: MILWAUKEE BREWERS 🍺

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

NLDS GAME 1 PICK: BREWERS 🍺

SD @ MIL | 8:30 ET / 5:30 PT
American Family Field

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

Gerrit Cole is still a good pitcher, but he’s not the dominant ace he once was. The slider hasn’t been the same weapon, and the long ball has become a real problem — 9 HR allowed over his final 5 starts.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has the pitcher I trust more right now.

Drew Rasmussen:
16-5 | 2.67 ERA | 0.91 WHIP | 174 K
Last 10: 7-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 27% K
Career vs NYY: 5-2, 1.81 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

And he just carved this lineup up: 6.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 11 K, carrying a no-hitter into the 7th.

Tampa isn’t dependent on one way to score. They can string together hits, have legitimate power in the middle, and have a deep pitching staff behind Rasmussen. Bryan Baker (1.49 ERA) and Kevin Kelly (2.50) give them legitimate late-inning weapons.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

🗽 Yankees @ Rays
🏟️ Tropicana Field
⏰ 6:30 PM ET / 3:30 PM PT
🔥 Pick: RAYS

ALDS GAME 1 PICK: TAMPA BAY RAYS

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

Dodgers in 4, although the Braves are fearsome.

The Dodgers were rolling into October, and now they open the Division Series with Tarik Skubal against an Atlanta staff forced into a bullpen game. Skubal went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts after joining LA, and his final start looked like an ace peaking at exactly the right time: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K, 21 whiffs and a ridiculous 50.7% CSW.

The arsenal was nasty: 97.3 MPH FF with 17.2” IVB, an 88.8 MPH CH, 96.6 sinker and 90.1 slider. That four-seamer produced 12 whiffs and a 50% CSW by itself.

And I really like the matchup against Atlanta’s lefties. Over Skubal’s last 10, LHBs struck out 36.5% of the time with only a 1.9% BB rate. His FF against LHBs generated a 53.3% K rate / 21.8% SwStr, while the CH was even nastier: 64.3% K / 30.8% SwStr. Atlanta as a team was also less productive against LHP this season (.696 OPS) than RHP (.730).

Tarik goes 6 and the bullpen finished things out.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

Dodger Stadium
⏰ 4:00 PM ET / 1:00 PM PT
⚾ ATL: Dylan Dodd / bullpen game
⚾ LAD: Tarik Skubal

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

@blandalytics

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

My reasoning hasn't really changed from Game 1: I don't trust this Phillies offense enough.
September:
.226 AVG | .304 OBP | .356 SLG | .660 OPS 3.71 runs/game | 17 HR 10–14 record (StatMuse)

They showed exactly how dangerous the top-end talent can be last night as Schwarber and Harper went back-to-back and Bohm eventually won it. However, Philadelphia still needed 10 innings to score four.

Atlanta is countering Nola's tired arm with a bullpen game: Ray Kerr → likely Grant Holmes → leverage arms as needed. Kerr has a 1.47 ERA since returning, while Holmes posted a 3.05 ERA against PHI this season.
I think the inning by inning approach with a shutdown bullpen is the right move by ATL.

Atlanta has the deeper lineup, they're at home, and I still trust them to manufacture offense from more places than Philadelphia.

Pick: BRAVES 🪓

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

NL WILD CARD GAME 3 ⚾️
PHI @ ATL | 8 ET / 5 PT
Nola 🆚 Braves Bullpen
No deep dive tonight as ATL is going with a bullpen game.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

The Padres beat the brakes off Chicago 8-0 last nightand Michael King going 7 means SD enters Game 2 with its bullpen essentially intact.

Gausman
His last start:
⬇️ Velo down ~1–2 ticks across the arsenal
Splitter: 19 whiffs / 50 pitches
FF: 2 whiffs / 45
SW: 0 whiffs / 6
That splitter performance was absurd with an unsustainable 19 whiffs on 50 pitches.
STRATEGY:
SD needs to keep their strike zone tight and punish Gausman when he goes into the zone.
His SPL lived below the plate (8% Zone%). Don't donate chases. If SD can force him away from the splitter, they're getting more looks at a FF that wasn't missing bats last time out.

Why Pivetta:
In SEP: 18.2 IP | 3 ER | 18 K | 2 BB | 1.45 ERA
vs LHB's: 27.3 K% | 2.3 BB% | .116 AVG | .140 SLG
And he's built back to 87 pitches, so this isn't merely an opener situation. https://t.co/17Xp5oMxrM
There IS a vulnerability:
vs RHB: .357 AVG / .607 SLG
FF vs RHB: .500 AVG / .750 SLG
But I'm not ready to call the fastball cooked.
It's still ~94 MPH with ~19" IVB, and that FF has carried a .556 BABIP in this tiny sample.
Pivetta needs to get the FF back upstairs more frequently: recent 51.6% HiLoc vs RHB is well below last year's 63%.

Pivetta just needs to give 4–5 competitive innings and turn it over to the rested bullpen.

Gausman basically has one pitch to navigate through a Padres offense that's surging. Pivetta just has to get the game to San Diego's biggest strength.
Pick: PADRES 🌴

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

NL WILD CARD GAME 2 ⚾️
CHC @ SD | 10 ET / 7 PT
Gausman 🆚 Pivetta
I'm taking SD to finish it. 🌴

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

Boston's September offense has been ugly, and now they get a pitcher who can completely change identities depending on which side of the plate you're standing on.

Max Fried vs LHB:
🔥 70.4% fastballs
• SI 55.1%
• FF 15.3%
Against lefties, Fried isn't trying to fool you with complexity. He attacks with the hard stuff, led by the sinker, then uses his smaller secondary package as the change of pace.

Flip a RHB into the box and Fried essentially becomes a different pitcher.
vs RHB:
🌀 73.1% secondaries
• CUT 28.0% — 34.4 CSW%
• CB 16.1% — 42.9 CSW%
• SW 15.3% — 42.7 CSW%
• CH 13.6%
That's pitching backward.
He can steal an early strike with the cutter, sweep away from a RHB with the SW, drop the slower CB underneath it, mix in the CH and then 95 at the right moment becomes the surprise.

That's what makes the sequencing fun:
LHB: establish the fastball → make them adjust to soft.
RHB: establish soft/movement → make them adjust to hard.
And the results back up the approach over this sample:
vs LHB: .211 AVG | .289 SLG
vs RHB: .200 AVG | .300 SLG
The key for Fried tonight isn't inventing anything new and sticking to his game plan.
Boston couldn't get anything going in Game 1, and Fried has already handled them twice this season.

[Scoutsan815 @scoutsan815]

AL WILD CARD GAME 2 ⚾️
BOS @ NYY | Gray 🆚 Fried
8PM ET/ 5PM PT @ Yankee Stadium
Picking Yanks to finish the job.