Phillip Aholt

Capitalism, Citadel Theory and BTC

[Cactus Shadows BBall @BasketballCSHS]

School is back! The locker room received a small upgrade and were excited for fall ball to start in September.
Lets go!
#Falconhood

[Phillip Aholt @SdaleKid]

Big thank you to @unchained for adding @MARAFoundation_ SlipStream pool into their platform allowing me to move funds from my Cold Card multisig set up so easy. Thank you to @Rob1Ham for alerting me of the attack and providing so much info on the matter. You all saved me 🙏

[Phillip Aholt @SdaleKid]

@BasketballCSHS great game coach! That was fun to watch! History first time ever in the final four! Congrats!!

[Marty Bent @MartyBent]

"Can you just stop printing money?"

[OKUNG @RussellOkung]

The last time something new became collateral, it was U.S. Treasuries.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE $7.4 TRILLION DETONATOR: AMERICA’S HIDDEN LIQUIDITY BOMB ABOUT TO OBLITERATE EVERY MARKET ASSUMPTION

The most dangerous number in financial history is hiding in plain sight.

$7.4 trillion parked in money market funds. Not in stocks. Not in real estate. Not in gold. Not in Bitcoin. In idle Treasury bills earning 5%+, waiting for a single Federal Reserve decision to unleash the largest capital reallocation event in human civilization.

This isn’t cautious investing. This is a civilizational coiled spring with a central bank trigger.

THE DETONATION PHYSICS

When the Fed cuts 150-200 basis points, MMF income collapses by $100-140 billion annually. That lost yield must hunt returns somewhere.

Each 1% MMF reallocation releases $74 billion.
10% rotation unleashes $740 billion … exceeding most nations’ GDP.
20% exodus deploys $1.48 trillion into risk assets.

The flows don’t trickle. They cascade through institutional pipes like a breaking dam.

THE HISTORICAL PATTERN NOBODY REMEMBERS

1998: $1.3T MMF → Fed cuts → Tech bubble ignites
2003: $2.1T MMF → Fed cuts → Housing mania begins
2009: $3.8T MMF → Fed cuts → Everything rallies 300%+
2025: $7.4T MMF → Fed signaling cuts → Unknown territory

Double the 2009 powder keg. But now Bitcoin exists as 24/7 institutional-grade scarcity with ETF rails.

THE FOUR HORSEMEN TRIGGERS

3-month T-Bill drops below 4.0% from 4.8%
Fed confirms sequential cuts beyond one-and-done
High-yield spreads compress below 350bps
Crypto ETF inflows sustain above $2B weekly

All four converging = detonation sequence.

THE BITCOIN MATHEMATICS

MMF pile: $7.4 trillion at 5% yields
Bitcoin supply: 21 million fixed, 96% mined
BlackRock IBIT: $100B AUM in under 10 months

If 5% rotates ($370B): Bitcoin $280-350K
If 10% rotates ($740B): Bitcoin $550-700K
If 15%+ with sovereign buying: Bitcoin $1M+

Not speculation. Thermodynamics. Finite supply meets infinite liquidity in mathematical collision.

THE MECHANISM

MMFs flow through institutional architecture:
Prime brokerages rebalancing
Pension allocation triggers hitting
Corporate treasury deployments
Sovereign wealth hunting uncorrelated returns
ETFs absorbing without selling pressure

Every pipe terminates at scarcity. Only one asset is provably finite, instantly settlable, globally accessible 24/7: Bitcoin.

THE FED’S CHOICE

Keep rates high: Recession, debt spiral
Cut aggressively: $7.4T liquidity tsunami

Bond markets price 150-200bps cuts through 2026. The choice is made. The spring releases.

THE COUNTDOWN

When 3-month yields crater from 5% to 3%, capital doesn’t deliberate. It hunts yield with systemic urgency.

Gold supply: uncertain
Real estate: illiquid
Stocks: expensive
Bonds: debasing

Bitcoin: mathematically provable 21M cap with instant global settlement.

The largest dry powder pile in history aims at civilization’s scarcest asset.

The trigger is Fed policy in motion.
The timing is bond-market priced.
The outcome is thermodynamic inevitability.

When the spring releases, price discovery enters unknown physics.

Choose accordingly.

[Phillip Aholt @SdaleKid]

Tucker Carlson was created by the CIA….

Fade all spooks buy more Bitcoin.

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Tucker Carlson says he won’t buy #Bitcoin, he thinks the CIA created it.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

The hidden punchline in your table … the CPI of life (house + healthcare + college) compounds faster than cash.

Implied from your numbers (1990→2024):
• Housing: ~2.6× price rise ⇒ ~2.8%/yr
• Healthcare: ~4.0× ⇒ ~4.2%/yr
• College: ~6.5× ⇒ ~5.7%/yr
• Money-market: ~2.56× ⇒ 2.8%/yr
• Gold: ~6.84× ⇒ 5.8%/yr

So a saver riding money-markets roughly kept up with generic CPI, but fell behind the “life basket” that actually matters (tuition, care, shelter). Gold, with a scarcity-driven ~5.8% CAGR, matched those non-fungible costs far better.

After-tax reality makes the gap starker:
• MMF in a 25% bracket ≈ 2.03× (not 2.56×), which buys ~0.78× today’s house, ~0.51× healthcare, ~0.31× college (vs 1990).
• Gold taxed at collectibles 28% ≈ 5.20× still buys ~2.0× house, ~1.3× healthcare, ~0.8× college.

Why this feels like “inflation is higher than CPI” .. services dominated by human time (education, healthcare) suffer Baumol-cost disease and policy frictions; their idiosyncratic inflation basis ≠ headline CPI. Cash tracks policy rates; life tracks scarcity and wages.

Takeaway is that savings isn’t “risk-free” … it’s basis-risk against your personal liability basket.
• Short horizon: T-bills/MMFs for bills.
• Long horizon/lumpy liabilities: scarce, non-dilutive assets (gold, and .. over shorter history .. bitcoin).
•Match the asset to the thing you must buy, or the spread compounds against you for decades.

[Marty Bent @MartyBent]

Individuals don't need access to equity slivers of multi-family shit boxes.

THEY NEED BETTER MONEY.

Pushing tokenization so that more people can gamble on the high velocity trash economy for financialized assets doesn't solve the core issue we face.

https://t.co/OmK9xAH6ZX

[Nick Szabo @NickSzabo4]

@nondescript000 @maxcrypto The last time 2009-11 happened may have been c. 4600-4598 BC in the Danube Valley, when they started making gold beads, a much better store of high value than copper or shell beads.

[TFTC @TFTC21]

What is money?

@jackmallers explains.

[Morgen Rochard, CFA @MorgenRochard]

In the fiat world, we “retire” people and send them off to consume. In the Bitcoin world, we rewire them to produce in new ways—at any age.

[Phillip Aholt @SdaleKid]

Player of the game!

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Congrats on rebranding fiat.

[Cory Bates @corybates1895]

Them: “What’s your parenting style?”

Me:

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

Still one of the greatest posts of all time.

[TFTC @TFTC21]

This is the way.

[nvk @nvk]

Bad take.

Seed phrases are a super power, they are vendor agnostic.

The alternatives have a TON of "trust me" stack and vendor lock-in.

Super disappointed at #Block & #BitKey on this new marketing path.

Trusting a pubco is not how ppl find sovereignty

#StopSeedFUD

[Joe Burnett, MSBA @IIICapital]

Seed phrases are timeless.

Your seedless device is not.

Something to think about if you plan on holding bitcoin for a long time.

[Phillip Aholt @SdaleKid]

Nothing else compares. Bitcoin green candle season loading.