Seahawk Nerd

Professional data analyst bringing mathematical thinking to all things Seattle Seahawks and the NFL.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

New article: Big Boy Quarterbacking
https://t.co/F4r7NkjVUr

[Seaside Joe: Daily Seahawks Newsletter @seasidejoenews]

Myles Garrett is the best pass rusher in the NFL.

However....

4 sacks against Lamar (2nd-highest sack rate)
3 sacks against Geno (Highest sack rate)
5 sacks against Drake Maye (4th-most sacks)

12 sacks in 3 games.
11 sacks in 14 other games.

He's GREAT. But context matters.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

ESPN is forecasting another Seahawks-Rams final 2 in the NFC.

If the Eagles offense or 49ers/Packers/Lions defenses outperform expectations, those would be the teams that could potentially upset a Super Bowl run.

Bears and Cowboys are the dark horses.

[Football Insights 📊 @fball_insights]

Preseason offensive and defensive strength

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@B_Christs_Amb Stafford has nothing on prime MVP Aaron Rodgers

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

2014. Seahawks are defending SB Champs. NFCCG is against the Packers with an MVP (Aaron Rodgers) and a ferocious versatile pass rush (Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and Mike Daniels).

Could be deja vu with the Rams in 2026...

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

Darnold 2nd

[Fantasy Points Data @FantasyPtsData]

ANY/A Leaders on Out-of-Pocket Throws

1. Lamar Jackson (11.9)
2. Sam Darnold (11.2)
3. TYLER SHOUGH (10.1)
3. Joe Burrow (10.1)
5. Patrick Mahomes (9.3)
6. Josh Allen (8.8)

[Sam Monson @SamMonsonNFL]

Pressures vs sacks, let's talk about it.

I was dismissive yesterday, let's actually break it down as a valid discussion.

A sack is almost always a better play than a pressure in terms of results. A pressure CAN lead directly to a turnover, forcing an errant throw for an INT etc, so it's not always, but generally, a sack on the play is a far better result for the pass rusher than a pressure would have been.

BUT, that doesn't mean it was qualitatively a better rep from the pass rusher.

There's a wide range of quality in the pass-rush reps that can end in a sack (same thing is true for pressures). You can whoop the LT in 1.5 seconds and smoke the QB in a way that the play never stood a chance, or you could have been dominated by your blocker, but the QB tripped over as he went by you and you touch the guy down for the stat. Box score shows those two plays as the same, but obviously, they're not.

This is where the subjectivity that people hate has some power. It's subjective, placing a distinction between those 2 plays, but clearly it's directionally more correct than acting like they were the same quality of play from the rusher. That's why PFF grades have some predictive power that other stats don't have. They can capture some of that lost info.

That range in quality of rep, added to the small sample size, is largely why sacks aren't a great measure of actual pass-rushing performance.

A rusher can play 1,000 snaps over a season. The difference between a solid season and an All-Pro season is 10 sacks to 20 sacks. 10 snaps. 1% of his season. Intuitively, we know that's just a bad sample size to be leaning on.

This is why people lean on pressures so much. The guy with 10 sacks may have 80 pressures. We're upping the sample size almost by an order of magnitude, which is in turn reducing the impact of outside variables. This is why the better indicator of FUTURE sacks is pressures, not current sack totals.

But pressures are just 'almost' plays.

Sure. But those almost plays aren't necessarily an indication of any failing by the pass-rusher. I can find you dozens of pressures over a season that are qualitatively better reps from a pass rusher than some sacks.

If you whoop the LT instantly, but the QB gets the ball out quickly against a CB who got roasted off the line, you may only end up with a pressure. Hell, if you even bury the QB with a hit but he manages to blindly fling the ball out of his grasp forwards, it's an incomplete pass and your sack becomes a pressure, even if the play was wildly risky by the QB.

The point is that you don't always control the outcome of the play as a pass-rusher, certainly less than people want to ascribe when they're dismissing players with high pressure totals and lower sack numbers.

People like to think of elite pass-rushers as 'finishers', but in reality I think that's pretty rare, and a much lower factor in finishing than the other influences outside of the rusher's control.

There ARE some players who 'finish' pressures into sacks at an unusually high or low rate over a few seasons, but they're rare. Most players regress back to the mean in either direction after an outlier season.

None of the top 10 edge rushers over the last two seasons in terms of pressure to sack rate had an overall pass-rush win rate over 20%. And basically the only guy to rank very highly in both is Myles Garrett, arguably the best single football player in the game.

The bottom line? You want as much data as possible when you're evaluating edge rushers. As big a sample size as you can find.

High pressure totals are a pretty good indicator of pass rushing ability. High pressure rate has signal. PFF pass-rushing grade has power.

Combine as much as you can to build the best picture of a rusher you can get, but sacks would be a few steps down on the list of data points i'd focus on if i was trying to evaluate how good a pass-rusher was.

Sacks are the goal, not the best measure of performance.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@dillpickle45_ Google is free

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

Regular season win percentage since 2002:

57.3% - Seahawks
49.4% - Rams
47.0% - 49ers
44.0% - Cardinals

Kings of the NFC West 🏆

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

Small sample plus a hand picked start date can sell you anything. Game 1 overs 8-1-1 since 2017... The same Game 1 overs are 10-9-1 since 2007. Always ask why someone chose the year they chose. This is a great example of endpoint shopping.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@dillpickle45_ Yeah, the year of realignment commonly used for these types of descriptive statistics long-term, what an oddly specific year. I should've cherry picked 2017 as the start date for no reason other than to make the Rams look better.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@EngageLAlive @bbiskis @SkeltonBra79515 What you're saying is that Macdonald has a small sample size which is a fair statistical criticism but it's also all we've got. What you're saying about "stretching out percentages" is complete nonsense though.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@EngageLAlive @bbiskis @SkeltonBra79515 That's not how percentages work.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@StaffordLover9 *Macdonald

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@StaffordLover9 Sounds like you care a lot

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@StaffordLover9 Cherry picking. If you want to know each HC's record as HC I already shared that too. Macdonald #1

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@StaffordLover9 The Seahawks joined the NFC West in 2002 and have won more games than any other team in their division since then. The facts are the facts. Sounds like you're the one throwing a tantrum.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@EngageLAlive @bbiskis @SkeltonBra79515 Is it though? It's just how many games each coach has won or lost as HC. No other way to do it...

Just because it doesn't have the Rams #1 doesn't make it BS

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@EngageLAlive @bbiskis @SkeltonBra79515 The number for McVay is since he became a HC. Same for each of the four coaches.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@tanner_mye86203 Realignment.

[Seaside Joe: Daily Seahawks Newsletter @seasidejoenews]

Seahawks under contract through at least 2028:

1. Offense setup for Sam Darnold extension in 2027
2. Many defensive players left to sign

-WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
-LT Charles Cross
-RT Abe Lucas
-LG Grey Zabel
-WR Rashid Shaheed
-RB Jadarian Price
-TE Elijah Arroyo
-WR Tory Horton
-FB Robbie Ouzts
-QB Jalen Milroe
-OLB Derick Hall
-S Nick Emmanwori
-CB Josh Jobe
-S Bud Clark
-CB Julian Neal
-DE Rylie Mills
-G Beau Stephens
-P Michael Dickson

Priority extensions in next 2 years:
*negotiating now

-QB Darnold
-DT Byron Murphy
-DE Leonard Williams*
-CB Devon Witherspoon*
-TE AJ Barner
-C Jalen Sundell
-LB Ernest Jones

On the older side:
-WR Cooper Kupp
-DE DeMarcus Lawrence
-OLB Uchenna Nwosu
-DE Jarran Reed
-S Julian Love
-K Jason Myers

Already signed:
-S Ty Okada
-LB Drake Thomas
-ST Brady Russell
-ST Jake Bobo

Undecided futures:
-RB Zach Charbonnet (knee)
-G Anthony Bradford
-DE Mike Morris
-LB Tyrice Knight
-CB Nehemiah Pritchett
-OL Mason Richman, Bryce Cabeldue
-OLB Jared Ivey
-OLB Connor O'Toole
-CB Nehemiah Pritchett

Who else?

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@bbiskis @SkeltonBra79515 Just following orders