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week 4 of posting my real numbers while i build ruckaroo, a walking app.
paid subscribers: +7% vs last week, +60% over 8 weeks
new users per week: -43% vs last week
the good part first: paid growth went +5%, +4%, +6%, now +7%. best week in 6 weeks.
the miss is big. two weeks ago new users jumped after we fixed a privacy screen and a broken checkout plan. it held for two weeks. this week it fell back almost to where it was before the fix.
i don't know why yet. last week i said the next problem was top of funnel. this is that problem showing up in the numbers.
what's strange is the two lines moving in opposite directions. fewer people coming in, more of them paying.
when new users drop but paid keeps climbing, what do you check first?

Not investment advice. Hypothetical AI-generated ideas for education only — see full disclaimer on site.
⚠️ Caution:
• Gap-and-fade: The pre-open risk-on setup is clean but Monday opens after a strong week are prone to early exhaustion -- a clean gap open that immediately rolls over in the first 15 minutes would invalidate most of today's long setups. Wait for early confirmation, do not buy the first 60-second candle blindly.
• AAPL and META lagging: Two of the largest QQQ weights are not participating in the pre-open rally. If they fade further at the open, QQQ could underperform despite semi strength and the 700 target may not be reached today.
+3 more risks in the full brief
For more live market analysis subscribe at https://t.co/BYVlYin5Et
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how to turn youtube viewers into PAYING CLIENTS without getting millions of views.
most business owners think they need 100K, 500K or even 1M views to generate clients from youtube.
that's not true.
you can have a channel with 10K monthly views and generate more business than someone getting 500K random views.
why?
because getting attention and converting attention into customers are two completely different things.
if you're using youtube to grow an agency, consulting business, coaching programme, course or any service, here's how i'd build the entire system.
STEP 1: STOP TRYING TO ATTRACT EVERYONE.
before thinking about leads, understand WHO you want watching your videos.
imagine you're a marketing agency helping e-commerce brands scale their paid advertising.
you don't need everyone interested in marketing watching your videos.
you want business owners who:
already have a product or service.
are struggling to acquire customers profitably.
have tried running ads but aren't getting the desired results.
want to scale but don't have the right acquisition system.
have the budget and intention to invest in solving the problem.
that's your audience.
the more clearly you understand who you're trying to attract, the easier it becomes to choose topics that bring relevant viewers.
STEP 2: CREATE CONTENT AROUND PROBLEMS YOUR OFFER SOLVES.
this is where your content strategy needs to connect directly to your business.
don't just create videos because they're trending.
identify the problems your potential customers are already experiencing.
for example, if you run a YouTube growth agency:
PROBLEM 1: their videos aren't getting views.
video idea: "why your YouTube videos aren't getting views despite uploading consistently."
PROBLEM 2: they don't know what content to make.
video idea: "how to find winning YouTube video ideas in your niche."
PROBLEM 3: people aren't clicking their videos.
video idea: "how to create YouTube thumbnails that actually get clicks."
PROBLEM 4: they struggle to keep viewers watching.
video idea: "why viewers leave your videos in the first 2 minutes."
PROBLEM 5: they don't have time to manage their channel.
video idea: "how to build a YouTube content system without doing everything yourself."
notice something?
every topic attracts people experiencing a problem that your service can potentially solve.
you're not forcing your offer into random content.
you're building content around the problems that make your offer relevant.
STEP 3: BUILD CONTENT FOR DIFFERENT LEVELS OF BUYER AWARENESS.
not everyone watching your videos is ready to buy.
some people don't even understand that they have a problem.
others know their problem but don't know how to solve it.
some are actively comparing solutions.
you need content for all of them.
let's use a business consultant as an example.
UNAWARE:
"why some businesses grow faster than others."
PROBLEM AWARE:
"why your business is getting customers but struggling to scale."
SOLUTION AWARE:
"how to build a predictable customer acquisition system."
AUTHORITY:
"breaking down how we helped a business improve its acquisition process."
BUYING INTENT:
"how to choose the right growth consultant for your business."
each video serves a different purpose.
some attract new viewers.
some educate them.
some demonstrate your expertise.
some attract people actively looking for help.
if you only create videos for people ready to buy, you'll limit your reach.
if you only create broad educational videos, you might build an audience that never becomes customers.
you need a combination.
STEP 4: USE CASE STUDIES TO BUILD TRUST.
this is one of the most powerful types of content for service businesses.
anyone can sit in front of a camera and tell people they know how to get results.
but showing how you approach real problems gives people something concrete to evaluate.
instead of making a generic video:
"how to grow your YouTube channel."
make:
"how we took this channel from struggling views to 100K views."
break down:
what the channel was doing before.
what wasn't working.
what opportunities you identified.
what changes you implemented.
why you chose that strategy.
what results followed.
what someone else can learn from the process.
don't just show a screenshot of the result.
explain the thinking behind it.
the objective is to make viewers understand HOW you solve problems.
use real evidence and be clear about your actual contribution.
STEP 5: STOP SELLING IN EVERY VIDEO. START DEMONSTRATING YOUR EXPERTISE.
there's a big difference between creating content that helps people and content that constantly tells people to buy your service.
imagine you're a fitness coach.
instead of ending every video with:
"buy my coaching programme."
you could:
explain why a particular training approach works.
break down common mistakes.
demonstrate how you'd approach a client's problem.
analyse different training methods.
explain who a particular programme is suitable for.
you're giving viewers an opportunity to experience how you think.
when someone repeatedly consumes useful content and sees that you understand their problems, they have more reasons to trust your expertise.
your content should do the convincing.
your CTA should simply give interested people a next step.
STEP 6: CREATE A REASON FOR VIEWERS TO TAKE THE NEXT STEP.
this is where you connect content to lead generation.
don't assume someone will automatically visit your website or enquire because they liked your video.
give them a relevant next step.
examples:
FITNESS COACH:
free nutrition or training guide.
MARKETING AGENCY:
free marketing audit or campaign breakdown.
BUSINESS CONSULTANT:
business growth assessment.
YOUTUBE GROWTH AGENCY:
personalised channel breakdown.
THE IMPORTANT PART:
the resource or next step should connect directly to the topic of the video.
if someone watches a video about improving YouTube CTR, offering them a YouTube packaging checklist makes sense.
offering something completely unrelated creates friction.
the closer the connection between the video and the next step, the more natural the transition becomes.
STEP 7: BUILD YOUR CHANNEL AROUND CONVERSION.
your YouTube channel homepage is another opportunity to build trust.
someone might discover you through one video, click your channel and start evaluating whether you're worth following.
what do they see?
make sure your channel communicates:
who you help.
what problems you solve.
what type of content you publish.
why someone should subscribe.
where interested viewers can learn more about your service.
organise your strongest videos into relevant playlists.
feature useful introductions, educational content and case studies.
make your channel feel like a place where someone can understand your expertise, not just a random collection of uploads.
STEP 8: MAKE YOUR CTA MATCH THE VIEWER'S LEVEL OF INTEREST.
not every viewer is ready to book a sales call.
this is where creators make things unnecessarily difficult.
someone watching a broad educational video might not be ready to discuss hiring you.
but someone watching a detailed case study about the exact problem your service solves might be much closer.
think about different CTAs.
LOWER INTENT:
"subscribe for more breakdowns like this."
MEDIUM INTENT:
"download the free guide linked below."
HIGHER INTENT:
"if you want help implementing this in your business, you can enquire through the link below."
the CTA should match the content and the viewer's level of interest.
don't force a sales conversation before someone has a reason to have one.
STEP 9: BUILD A FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM.
someone might watch your video today but not become a customer for another 30 or 60 days.
that's normal.
people have different buying timelines.
make it easy for interested viewers to stay connected.
depending on your business, this could include:
an email newsletter.
a useful free resource.
educational emails.
additional case studies.
relevant offers.
a consultation or application process.
for example:
someone watches your video about generating qualified leads.
they download your free lead generation guide.
they receive useful follow-up content.
they learn more about your approach.
when they're ready to solve the problem, they already know who you are.
you're not relying on one video to generate an immediate sale.
you're building a relationship with the viewer over time.
STEP 10: TRACK WHICH VIDEOS ACTUALLY GENERATE BUSINESS.
this is where you stop guessing.
don't just track views and subscribers.
build a proper content performance sheet.
VIDEO PERFORMANCE:
video title.
views.
impressions.
CTR.
average view duration.
subscribers gained.
LEAD PERFORMANCE:
link clicks.
resource downloads.
enquiries.
qualified leads.
calls booked.
SALES PERFORMANCE:
calls attended.
clients acquired.
revenue generated.
use UTMs, landing page tracking and lead source questions to understand where enquiries originate.
now you can identify:
which topics attract your ideal customers?
which videos generate the most enquiries?
which videos bring the highest-quality leads?
which videos actually contribute to sales?
a video with 12K views and 4 qualified enquiries might be more valuable to your business than one with 200K views and no relevant enquiries.
but you need to measure it to know.
LET'S PUT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM INTO ONE EXAMPLE.
imagine you run a high-ticket marketing agency helping e-commerce brands scale.
here's how i'd build your YouTube acquisition funnel.
DISCOVERY:
"why most e-commerce brands struggle to scale past $50K/month."
this attracts business owners experiencing growth problems.
EDUCATION:
"5 reasons your Facebook ads aren't generating profitable customers."
now you're addressing a specific problem.
AUTHORITY:
"breaking down the advertising strategy behind a 7-figure e-commerce brand."
now you're demonstrating how you think.
CASE STUDY:
"how we helped an e-commerce brand improve its customer acquisition."
now you're showing evidence of your work.
CONVERSION:
"if you're struggling to scale your e-commerce brand profitably, apply for a strategy assessment."
now interested viewers have a clear next step.
notice how the content works together.
you're not randomly uploading videos.
you're creating a journey where viewers can discover you, understand their problems, experience your expertise and eventually enquire about working with you.
HERE'S THE BIGGER PICTURE.
YouTube is not just a platform for getting views.
it's an opportunity to build an audience, demonstrate expertise, establish trust and create demand for your business.
but you need to understand the difference between these things.
VIEWS create attention.
RELEVANT CONTENT attracts the right audience.
EDUCATION demonstrates expertise.
CASE STUDIES build credibility.
A LEAD SYSTEM captures interested prospects.
YOUR OFFER turns qualified opportunities into customers.
and all of this needs to work together.
you don't need 1M subscribers.
you don't need every video to go viral.
you don't even need to publish every single day.
you need to understand who you're trying to attract, what problems they have, what content they consume and how your business can help them.
stop building a YouTube channel just to get views. build a YouTube channel that creates actual business opportunities.

Podcast Summary | The Joe Rogan Experience: #2574 - Francis Foster & Konstantin Kisin
Overview
A wide-ranging conversation that starts with information warfare and ends in geopolitics, threaded by one recurring claim: people form beliefs from perceived consensus, slogans, and outrage rather than from evidence or independent judgment. The discussion moves from AI-generated fabrication and bot-amplified narratives, through climate and energy policy, secularism as a substitute religion, drinking and supplements, urban overstimulation, immigration and crime statistics, institutional amorality, ancient history, and finally the escalation trap around Iran. The through-line is that complexity plus poor education plus engagement incentives produces a distorted public picture, and that honest conversation is the corrective.
Key Themes
- Manipulation succeeds because most people outsource opinion to perceived consensus, letting bots and influencers manufacture the illusion that a narrative is popular.
- Outrage is profitable, so influencer incentives reward preposterous contrarian takes over good-faith content, and clip-driven formats leave audiences with regret rather than understanding.
- Climate and energy policy are framed as profit-driven and misrepresented as settled, with claims that UK decarbonization would have no climate impact while raising costs and harming industry.
- Religion supplies moral scaffolding and community, and its absence is argued to turn progressive politics and activism into substitute religions that treat dissent as heresy.
- Alcohol is a poor trade-off that dehydrates and suppresses the immune system, while supplements such as liposomal glutathione and electrolytes are defended as broadly useful.
- Cities are overstimulating in a way analogous to zoo conditions, and exposure to nature and dark night skies restores perspective and calm.
- Institutional diffusion of responsibility lets individuals in corporations and government avoid moral accountability, and concentrated power driven by greed is treated as a serious threat.
- Crime statistics are disputed, with declines attributed by some to underreporting while residents describe conditions worsening.
- Iran holds the stronger position in a self-trapping escalation cycle because it treats the conflict as survival while US leaders face elections, investigations, and political pressure.
Detailed Summary
The starting point is the state of online information. Fabricated stories, AI-generated images, and bot-amplified narratives make basic facts hard to verify, and manipulation works because most people form political opinions from perceived consensus. Bots and influencers create the illusion that a narrative is popular, and platforms demonetizing fake stories removes financial incentives for grifters but not for state and propaganda actors, who want to muddy the waters regardless of money.
Specific claims about Brazil circulate with open uncertainty, including that Flávio Bolsonaro had his passport taken after the election and may have fled to the US, and that a Lula-appointed Supreme Court figure extended polling hours. The guests label such material Twitter talk rather than verified fact. Suggestions raised include digital border enforcement to identify where commenters post from, and takedowns of posts debunked by Grok fact-checks.
Rogan describes avoiding guests he believes are propagandists or liars, preferring honest good-faith conversationalists across the spectrum. He characterizes Bernie Sanders' climate rhetoric as repetitive and suggests climate science is more confusing than presented, citing an article claiming global warming may have stopped an imminent ice age and 1970s fears of a coming ice age, including Leonard Nimoy's In Search Of.
A comparison is offered: in a comparable year, estimated heat-related deaths in Europe exceeded total US firearm deaths. Europe recorded an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths in the cited summer, while the CDC recorded more than 48,000 firearm deaths over the entire year, including suicides and homicides. The qualifications matter, since heat-related deaths are broader than heat stroke and the time frames differ. A 2024 study estimated 364,000 annual cold deaths across 30 European countries based on 1991 to 2020 averages, and more people die from cold than heat in Britain specifically.
Climate policies are tied to higher energy costs, with the speakers linking them to pensioners dying from cold and to UK deindustrialization. Britain produces about 1% of global carbon emissions, so cutting to zero is argued to have no climate impact while damaging the economy. Britain has among the highest industrial electricity prices in the world, cited as a reason little manufacturing happens there, in contrast to US data-center buildout. Global greening is cited as evidence that plants consume carbon dioxide. Climate science is described as modeling and approximation based on assumptions, contrasted with public expectations of fully predictable science.
The UK temperature picture is narrow: 37 to 38 degrees Celsius, up to 40 on one or two days a year, with average July and August daytime highs around 70 Fahrenheit. Housing built to retain winter heat and transport not built for heat make those days more dangerous, and most UK places lack air conditioning, attributed to green concerns about energy use. Oil companies historically funding anti-nuclear efforts is offered as an example of profit-driven influence, alongside the claim that corporations and politicians benefit from green mandates and contracts.
On belief and morality, poll figures are cited showing about 78% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents identifying with a religion versus about 60% of Democrats, with roughly 39% religiously unaffiliated. The left is described as almost universally secular and therefore lacking moral scaffolding, since religion provides rules, humility, community, and cohesion. Humans are argued to be psychologically predisposed to religion, so causes like progressive politics and climate activism function as substitutes, with dissenters treated as heretics. Gratitude is singled out as a Christian practice that changes how life is experienced independent of belief in God.
Skepticism about polls follows: busy people do not answer them, and college studies skew toward college students. Criticism of woke revisions to religion argues that if scripture is being revised, passages about slavery and the slaughter of women and children should be addressed first. Jonathan Haidt is cited for framing religion as social technology for group cohesion, and the church parking lot is offered as anecdotal evidence of orderly, courteous behavior.
Alcohol is framed as a poor trade-off, with modest enjoyment at low doses but costs rising sharply with more drinks and with age. One glass of wine affects the next day at our age. A speaker took about eight months off alcohol and reports better energy, more consistent energy, better mood, and better mornings. Alcohol is described as dehydrating and immunosuppressive, and glutathione is claimed to be more bioavailable in liposomal form, suggested before, during, or after drinking. Supplements are defended against the claim that a balanced diet provides everything, and a doctor with a pot belly and a cardiologist cousin smoking 40 cigarettes a day are offered as illustrations of professional credibility diverging from personal practice.
UK medical education is described as free up to college, with liability insurance less extreme than in the US and a less litigious culture, while UK service culture is described as closer to Soviet-style treatment of customers than the US. Colorado is cited as the first state to legalize cannabis with a steep tax near 39% funding schools, and cost comparisons favor marijuana over a night of drinking, with a joint in California estimated at 15 to 20 dollars. Health influencers and the internet are shifting people away from alcohol.
City life is described as overstimulating in a way analogous to constant dopamine exposure, and Desmond Morris's primatology work in The Human Zoo is cited for the idea that cities produce zoo-like effects: higher interpersonal violence, mental illness, depression, and lower reproductiveness. One speaker moved from a small town and found city shopping overwhelming within about 10 minutes. A friend in Manhattan for more than 30 years reportedly needs a place on Fire Island, described as car-free, ferry-accessed, and full of bicycles, to tolerate the city. New York is called a legitimate 24-hour city, with Chelsea Billiards and 4 a.m. steak dinners cited as past appeal. One speaker moved progressively farther from Los Angeles, eventually outside LA County, with acres of land and wildlife including mountain lions, bobcats, deer, and hawks.
A teacher describes East London students becoming visibly different after a week in the countryside, suggesting nature affects behavior and concentration. Light pollution is called a major issue, and South Texas is cited as one of the best places to see the night sky and the Milky Way, a comedian having described it that way. Seeing the galaxy puts one's place in the universe in perspective, while city life removes that perspective and creates a tiny, blindered world.
Digital exposure is framed as a cost of public-facing work, since people will have opinions including outrageous ones and outright lies. Criticism for real mistakes is acceptable, but deliberate lies are not, and the argument is that lies should be rejected from both political sides, though people rarely call out lies aligned with their own ideology. Both parties are described as defined by their craziest members, and absorbing online content can warp worldview away from real-life interaction. Sitting in a garden looking at two roughly 300-year-old trees is offered as a way to dismiss online criticism. People are said to be more aggressive in groups than one-on-one.
The show originally had a rule never to have sitting politicians on, but later began talking to politicians after gaining access and interest. While preparing in an Airbnb, the speakers saw YouTube political attack ads because they were not logged into their own accounts, with midterms approaching, including extreme claims about candidates and pedophiles or wanting to trans children. Immigration claims follow: the border described as wide open, the Red Cross allegedly setting up stations giving maps, people given plane tickets, EBT cards, cell phones, and put up in luxury hotels, Greg Abbott busing people to New York City, and a disproportionate number of illegal immigrants moving to swing states. The census counting all humans rather than legal citizens is argued to affect congressional seat counts and help a party stay in power. Claims about Kamala Harris include discussing adding Supreme Court justices and turning DC and Puerto Rico into states, which the speaker argues would mean permanent control. Trump is mentioned posting a picture of himself as Jesus on Truth Social. A significant drop in crime is attributed to the FBI under Cash Patel in the new administration, with the counter-argument noted that it may reflect underreporting, especially in Los Angeles, and people there describe the city as Gotham City now versus 15 years ago.
A Venezuelan Uber driver told one host that most Venezuelan migrants come to work, not cause trouble, but warned that criminal entrants damage the reputation of all Venezuelans, citing Tren de Aragua as the reason Venezuelan is immediately associated with gang activity. One host asks whether increased violent crime is an unintended side effect of pursuing congressional seats or a calculated pretext for expanded surveillance such as Flock cameras and phone access.
Andrew Yang said he left the conventional party model because neither party wants to solve problems, with some Republicans allegedly avoiding letting Democrats close the border so they have something to run on. Anna Paulina Luna reportedly told a host that certain issues stay unresolved because they are campaign talking points and fundraising sources. A shared concern emerges that neither major party wants the border problem fully solved. Both speakers identify concentrated power in corporations and government, driven by greed and amorality, as a serious threat, with diffusion of responsibility inside large institutions letting individuals avoid moral accountability. Someone doing spreadsheets in Dallas does not feel connected to toxic waste dumping abroad. Piers Morgan's outrage-driven debate model is cited as attracting attention but leaving post-content clarity regret, a phrase credited to Chris Williamson. One host filters online content to things sent by trusted friends. One host wrote Uneducated about teaching in an East London school, where classroom management left no time for culture-war topics like decolonization. The podcast approaching 2 million subscribers is described as creating real responsibility to challenge guests who say things that are not right and to prep interviews properly, while traditional TV is expected to decline as YouTube and podcasts rise.
Fame at a young age is framed as deeply damaging, since child stars lack consent, guardrails, and normal social development and often peak early. A friend who was a child actor discovered as an adult that his parents had stolen millions from him. YouTube is described as more popular than any single television show, though TV collectively remains ahead in absolute numbers. Outdoor Boys is cited with 20 million subscribers and roughly 90 million views per video before the creator stopped. Tutankhamun is used as an analogy for peaking extremely young, becoming king around nine and dying around 18 or 19, and Akhenaten was identified in a 2010 DNA study as likely his father.
The history segment turns to Tut's tomb, found largely intact because rubble covered it after burial and discouraged visits, while other pharaoh tombs were looted. Researchers reported features differing from idealized royal imagery, including a club foot and foot bone damage suggesting difficulty walking, supported by walking sticks in the tomb. Malaria parasite DNA was detected, and malaria, bone problems, and a fractured leg may have contributed to death without a single conclusive cause. Ancient king lists are presented as containing very long reigns and lifespans for early figures, creating tension with accepted dynastic history, and the Sumerian king list is cited as having similar properties.
Ancient Egyptian engineering is called poorly understood, with Abu Simbel cited for sophisticated light alignment, a beam entering at a certain time of day to light a specific point. Robert Schoch of Boston University is cited as arguing that weathering around the Sphinx indicates water erosion requiring thousands of years. Herodotus is cited as describing enormous labyrinths greater than Giza with extraordinary underground features. A British Museum exhibition described Greek rule over Egypt and the creation of artificial gods to bind Greek and Egyptian worshippers and prevent civil war, reinforcing the theme of political control through religion, contrasted with Genghis Khan's indifference to belief in exchange for taxes and obedience. Dan Carlin is cited for the tension between Genghis Khan's destructive conquests and effects such as opening trade to the east, and Timur is described as a mini Genghis Khan whose empire stretched from Constantinople to China, Russia, and India. The story that opening Timur's tomb in Samarkand would unleash a greater conqueror is linked to Soviet archaeologists opening it and Hitler invading the next day, June 22, 1941, Operation Barbarossa.
Hitler's failure to take Moscow is framed as potentially decisive because Stalin stayed in Moscow, and tank traps outside the city are cited as evidence of how close the Germans came, with historians arguing Stalin's capture or death could have meant Soviet defeat. Stalingrad is described as the turning point after which the Soviet Union pushed forward. The Mongol invasion of Baghdad is presented as a catastrophic blow to the Islamic world, with extreme descriptions of slaughter, the river flowing red, roads degraded by rotting flesh so carts could not pass, and an envoy seeing what appeared to be a snowcapped mountain that turned out to be a pile of bones. Bukhara is discussed as a historically impressive Muslim cultural center.
Alan Watts' The Age of Insecurity is cited as a 1950s work about rapid technological and cultural change causing anxiety that still applies. Child-rearing is argued to have improved by rejecting normalized beatings common in earlier generations, including in the Soviet Union. AI is described as a different and more intense challenge than past change. The UK defense minister is said to have urged stockpiling about three days of supplies due to vulnerable infrastructure.
The geopolitics close centers on Iran as an unresolved, under-discussed conflict, with concern the US might escalate after midterms. The Iraq war is framed as a prolonged unintended shitshow supported out of post-9/11 anger, and the belief that democracy could be easily exported is mocked, with the implication that occupation and humiliation do not produce grateful, stable democracies. Robert Pape's escalation trap argument holds that the US trapped itself and that the conflict has put Iran on a path to become a stronger regional hegemon rather than weakening it. Iran gains leverage by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf oil flows, giving it a rear naked choke on the global economy, with higher gas and diesel prices tied to this.
Because Iran sees the conflict as survival while US leaders face midterms, investigations, and political pressure, Iran can outlast the US and keep escalating until it gets the deal it wants, including removing American bases from the Middle East. Drone and asymmetrical warfare are described as changing everything, with conventional countermeasures failing and small actors inflicting billions in damage in a single night. More than 20 American bases in the Middle East have reportedly been bombed with damage that could take decades to fix. A former special forces contact said boots on the ground in Iran is implausible because of mountainous terrain and that regime change has never been achieved solely through airstrikes. The US invasion of Iraq and the Ukraine war are cited as cases where leaders were given skewed information and told populations would rise up, and decision-making is described as lacking genuine deliberation, with Venezuela going well and the attitude becoming we're on a roll, what's next. Trump is described as flailing to get gas prices down while Iran gains leverage daily. Diesel supplies are cited as about a year for most countries and about two months for the UK, with Australian farmers and European countries struggling. The suggested off-ramp is for Trump to sell a deal with Iran as the greatest deal ever and declare victory even if it is worse than the prior status quo, with agreement that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon and understanding of Israel's position that Iran wants to destroy it.
I post highlights of long-form podcasts daily.
Nobody led with these this morning.
1. Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz, The Times of Israel reports.
2. Congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Democrat El-Sayed, citing his ties to a man who said America deserved September 11.
3. A Learjet 60 crashed near Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach County, Florida and killed all 9 people aboard.
4. Final New York Times and Siena polls show Democrats leading most Senate battleground states.
David Schwimmer turns 60 today, and his Friends co-stars have him to thank 🎂
In season 1, Ross was the breakout and he had the most leverage. Instead, he told the cast to negotiate as one team, all paid the same.
By the last two seasons, all six got $1 million an episode.

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Watching last night's Eagles - Commanders game, it dawned on me: Why am I watching two teams fighting to stay out of last place in the worst division in the NFL?
The answer: There was nothing else on.
I bet "60 Minutes" got a boost from such a lackluster SNF match up.
Fox Corp CEO Lachlan Murdoch calls Fox's Thanksgiving game between Cowboys and Eagles "blockbuster." Well can't blame him for trying can we?
Nebius has about a quarter of CoreWeave's revenue and lower margins, yet a bigger market cap. It sells more compute on short contracts at market prices, so it earns more while GPUs are tight. We think its depreciation ratio climbs sharply by 1H27. $NBIS https://t.co/3JmfLSOK3k
The most useful thing about a website warranty is the deadline.
For 30, 60, maybe 90 days, the people who built your site are still on the hook for what breaks and in our case any questions/training. That's the window to break it. Publish the new pages, launch the campaign, let whoever runs the site day to day push every button.
It's also the window to set your publishing cadence. Whatever rhythm your team falls into in those first months tends to be the one it keeps, so start the one you mean to keep while someone is still there to catch what it breaks.
Most teams don't. Two weeks ago a client's warranty ran out before they'd published anything new on their site. Launch felt like the finish line, so it sat.
A website is a product, and products get used. If nobody touches it in the warranty window, you're treating it like a brochure.
What did your team actually publish in the first month after your last launch?
Ashleigh Gardner's 124 off 60 balls, at a strike rate of 206.67, built the Sixers' 196. One innings, two-thirds of the total.
How much money would it take you to commit treason and ensure 3,000 of your countrymen were captured?
The answer: approximately $15,500 in 2026 money.
Ask Ensign William Demont, who handed the British the defensive plans for Fort Washington (in Manhattan) on this day in 1776.
Espionage and treachery are topics I am slightly interested in.
I always ask, what motivated the person to do whatever they did?
It’s not always as simple as money.
Everyone who spies or lies does so for a reason—maybe ego (usually), a slight (real or perceived), financial (still ego) or, rarely, a fundamental reason like revenge or actual belief in the other cause.
Demont handed over the fort’s defensive plans, and the British captured it two weeks later, taking nearly 3,000 American prisoners.
He eventually traveled to Britain, where he spent years trying to get compensated. An account claims he was awarded £60–unsure if he got that
That’s approximately $5.17 per man he betrayed.

https://t.co/nXE9ex5RtH
Readout 01. What one person did inside Film Room on launch day, straight from the event log.
I spent 13 years at five Fortune 500s. Amazon taught me that you don’t launch and hope; you instrument everything and let the data tell you what people actually do. McDonald’s, Nordstrom, and Lowe’s taught me that a number nobody can trace back to a real action isn’t a number.
So when I built Film Room, measurement went in before the product did. Every step of the funnel is attributed and timestamped: homepage, score page, upload, score, moves, share, rewrite.
Here’s what that process looks like from a real user on Day 1:
A waitlist member got our launch email on Nov 1 and clicked through at 1:32 PM.
1:34 PM — uploaded a resume. Target role: Media Control Room Operator. Vert™ career score: 51.
1:36 PM — ran it again. Same role. 51.
1:43 PM — same resume. New target: Camera Operator. 51.
1:45 PM — same resume. New target: Broadcast Engineer. 51.
Four scores in eleven minutes. Same file every time; the hash matched. They weren’t fixing a resume. They were trying on careers.
Two things that matter here.
The score held. The Farr Model™ reads the career, not the title, so switching roles didn’t move the number. 51 four times. A score you can trust is a score you come back to.
The plan changed. Each role got its own three moves worth 12 points. Control room: a live switching runbook. Camera: a multi-camera reel. Engineer: a signal-flow map. Same resume, three ways forward.
That loop, score → plan → new question → score again, is the product. Seeing someone run it four times on day one, unprompted, is the strongest signal we have.
It’s already moving the roadmap: the score stays steady, and everything around it (fit, demand, pay) should move with the role you pick.
More readouts as the first 100 come through.
If you know someone searching or trying to move up, send them to https://t.co/GWs1eZG0r0. Free, no account, about 60 seconds.

Sixty-two people reported an aortic dissection to V-safe. Only 2 of those reports reached VAERS. Both are in Addendum A, among the 60 who described it in their own words. Can you find them? And which of the rest would you have reported? https://t.co/6FPamriNlN
The last two times $MSTR exploded thousands of percent, it did so from the exact same level.
The 200 Simple Moving Average.
Right now, that same MA sits approximately 60% below price.
So, worst-case scenario: $MSTR crashes another 60% for a potential +1,000% gain.
On my phone and don’t have my Excel but I will walk you through the math and you can verify on your own spreadsheet
Based on the 5.4 million who’ve voted already we think that another 2.1 million will come out for ED. The trend is for R+8 or 9 so about 3.2M R’s, 2.6M D’s and 1.7 NPA’s.
R’s currently lead Registerd D’s in who’s already voted by about 130k votes. We think the R’s will net another 500k on ED where the breakdown is something like 1.1M R to 600D to 400 NPA’s or something like that.
Even in the Donalds friendly polls he is struggling in the NPA category to break 40% with Jolly taking 6 in 10 on average. The aggregate has been Jolly 60% Donalds 39% and Others 1%
Democrats are usually more united. Regardless of the Registered Ds that came out to vote in 2018 and 2022 both Gillum and Crist retained nearly 95% of them and we don’t see Jolly doing worse. Donald’s gets 4.5% of D crossover with 0.5% going to others
For Rs you mentioned Donalds is a generic Republican like Rick Scott. Scott in his two races retained 88-90 Republicans back when crossover was more common among both parties with Sink and Crist than it is now. DeSantis retained 92% Rs in his first run and an incredible 97% in 2022!
Most are in agreement Byron won’t touch that 97% number. But will he match the 92%. I placed him ahead of Scott but behind DeSantis with a 90-91 R retention rate with Jolly getting 6-7 crossover when the average is around 5 or so. The others take 2% from Rs unwilling to support Donalds but not support Jolly
Plug in all those numbers and you get a very close race where a 1% change in one category can change the outcome. This race is probably within a point one way or another. Anything Freon Donalds +3 to Jolly +2 is entirely possible based on early vote and what’s to come.
https://t.co/32z29yTLv9
Hallie: “steve kornacki at the big board with our brand new nbc news poll and steve, a spotlight on the president's approval rating tonight.”
Steve Kornacki: “yeah, hallie, it's our final temperature check heading into tuesday. donald trump's approval rating in our final pre-election nbc news poll stands at 40 percent, 60 percent of voters saying they disapprove of the president's performance. now, this is not trump's first midterm. remember, 2018, his party lost 40 seats, lost control of the house. they did do ok in the senate that day. but what was his approval rating like in our final poll before that midterm? it was 46 percent. so 46 then, 40 now on paper by this number, trump enters his second midterm in worse shape than in his first midterm. how about the generic ballot? which party do you want to see control congress in our poll? democrats now with a seven point advantage over republicans. that is up from five around labor day. compare that to the two most recent midterms. this time four years ago in biden's midterm, generic ballot was tied. and in trump's first midterm, democrats had a six point advantage on the eve of that midterm. of course, all of this feeds into the key question tuesday. one of them, who is going to control the senate? republicans trying to hold on to that. they are vulnerable in many places on this map. the key number here is four. if democrats are going to beat republicans, take control, they need a net gain of four. republicans obviously need to deny democrats from doing that. the red states. these are states that democrats are targeting that republicans now hold. a lot of these states, almost all of these states, are not just trump states. they were trump double digit states. the democratic path to a majority, if it exists, goes through trump country. and republicans, meanwhile, trying to turn the tables on democrats, minnesota, michigan, the two democratic seats, they think they could flip and change the math in their favor.”
Hallie: “steve kornacki, thank you. and nbc news, of course, will have full coverage on election night all night. i'll see you there starting at 5 o'clock eastern.”























