Grant Ellison

CIO at a real estate investment shop. Housing, markets, macro, and the occasional detour. Second Order Effects →

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

№10 said that if the daily rate held near 7.29%, PMMS would print below 7.40% and break a nine-week run. It came in at 7.32%.

The other half of that test, the spread, didn’t resolve. №11 scores both: https://t.co/pkBZ8ssSDb

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

Basement gym, 6am, no music, no phone.

Most of the edge in this job is just being willing to be bored for an hour at a time, and lifting is the cheapest place to practice it.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

Every headship-based demand estimate is a counterfactual.

Pick 2010 as the benchmark and you get a 4mm deficit. Pick 2000 and it moves. Pick 2019 and it nearly vanishes. The estimate is mostly a statement about which year you think was normal.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

Households per 100 adults went from 48.9 to 48.5 over the last fifteen years.

Sounds like rounding. On roughly 270mm adults it’s about a million households that didn’t form, and it compounds every year the rate stays down.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@JamesRaxz I thought you guys were the no kings people?

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@RoKhanna Ro, I’m so goddamn tired of you and your ilk. Just shut the fuck up and leave us alone.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@Now_we_Revolt You are literally the “useful idiot” needed to push this drivel. Read history.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@Now_we_Revolt In what fantasy land are you living? Please, for the love of god, go pick up some history books and read about what actually happens under your beloved communism. Your idiocy on this topic is dangerous.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@drterrysimpson I’ve had Covid a few times and it’s definitely a bad flu in terms of symptoms. For most people. If you’re very old and/or have comirbidities? Sure. But the flu REALLY sucks for those people too.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@MattBarrie He’s not to be understood. He’s to be respected.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@EdMarkey Sounds like a bunch of malarkey from Markey.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@JAFontenello Envious much?

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

Builder margin math at 7.4%: the buydown comes out of the same pocket as the price cut, but only one of them shows up in the transaction record.

Which is why “prices are holding” and “builders are discounting hard” are both accurate at the same time.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

FOMC Tuesday and Wednesday. No SEP, so the statement and the presser are all we get in terms of signal.

December is where the hike is priced, which makes next week mostly about whether Warsh leaves that pricing alone.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@CliffordAsness What’s wild to me is how a man can spend his whole life, dedicate all his professional time, to trying to make other men pay more taxes. Rather than adding value to the world and growing the pie.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@PensionPython Good thing we have the constitution and the takings clause. You people scream about fascism but are legitimate fascists…

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@ZachWLambert Zach literally only children believe what you believe. Grow up.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@gabriel_zucman How do you, as a man, spend your entire life trying to ensure other men pay more tax? There are so many more productive things you could be doing. FFS grow a pair of balls and go add some value to the world instead of this nonsense.

[Grant Ellison @secondorderfx]

@ArbitrageAndy1 How much you wanna bet this bro is not from Virginia?