Ohan

poly degen

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@datadashboards I think all prediction market volumes should be reported in terms of implied variance (i.e. contracts * price * (1 - price)). That basically solves all these inflated volume issues.

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@razim_Bob it's a lot better for me today after they did some fixes

[Variance Lover @variance_lover]

https://t.co/t7Y2NLift6

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@FundedAndChill obviously i am capable of doing this. you are advocating for something illegal and highly unethical

[Ohan @seemeohan]

At some point, I decided to stop constantly adjusting one of my Polymarket crypto up/down strategies (the one running out of account "ohanism") to deal with market manipulation by toxic participants.

This is the outcome.

It is still profitable, but you can see that after May 13 it has been much lower Sharpe, much larger, more frequent drawdowns. The main reason is that new classes of manipulators emerged, and I am bleeding large amounts of PnL to their impact.

There will be a point when it stops making money entirely, and at that point I will likely turn off rather than constantly adapting.

Some thoughts.

1. If you think you have an algo capable of winning in a game with all manipulations, you are lying to yourself. You have an algo capable of dealing with *today's* manipulators. Tomorrow's will be more sophisticated.

2. People can and do make money trading around manipulation. But it's an ever-evolving game that you are playing at a massive disadvantage.

3. I feel confident that I can go back in the code, make significant changes to the way I trade around manipulation, and go back to making a profit. But to what end? Will I need to spend half my week constantly chasing what manipulators are doing next? When will I find time to work on anything else?
I would much rather spend my time providing in games where I am not at a structural disadvantage.

4. TWAP will not perfectly solve the problem, but it will help considerably. At the very least, it makes things much more annoying for today's manipulators.

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@predict_anon yes, i am saying that a fill at .01 (.99 from your perspective) is less economically meaningful than a fill at .5

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@0_xMasque @Polymarket @mustafap0ly @devjoshstevens This has been going on for months.

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@devjoshstevens Hire HFT devs first.

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@dontoverfit i think this sometimes works, but sometimes doesn't depending on which order the matching engine sees the messages? at least i haven't been able to get it to work consistently.

[Ohan @seemeohan]

We desperately need a cancel by client order id on polymarket.

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@dontoverfit I don't think we have the equivalent of hyperliquid's cancel by cloid: https://t.co/ex6UvX0XLK

if latency is 10s you should be able to cancel before you get a confirm

[Ohan @seemeohan]

https://t.co/CiRndHfrjw

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@PolymarketDevs Thank you! Prioritizing quality participants over multi-account taker spam will go a long way to making the BTC 5 minute market tradable again.

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@CSP_Trading @variance_lover i promise you they are

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@devjoshstevens @variance_lover If you genuinely care about crypto 5M, read this https://t.co/MY8vXq8lVb . You guys can get liquidity and volume back but someone needs to actually care. You need to engage with your top makers who are all beyond frustrated.

Also happy to share manip via DM

[Ohan @seemeohan]

https://t.co/3EysyoMrLY

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@variance_lover @devjoshstevens now if they can do something about clob latency...

[Ohan @seemeohan]

@variance_lover Agree with all this. I put some thoughts on BTC 5 minute in particular here, which I think is the worst affected. https://t.co/MY8vXq8lVb

[Ohan @seemeohan]

https://t.co/3EysyoMrLY

[Ohan @seemeohan]

https://t.co/3EysyoMrLY

[Variance Lover @variance_lover]

I’ve been one of the biggest market makers on Polymarket for a long time. At peak I was doing $10M+ daily volume and paying thousands in fees every single day.

The current state is the worst the platform has ever felt.

Ghost fills still everywhere. Markets constantly breaking. Payouts randomly missing. Exploits going on for months while the team says “it’s fixed”. You spend more time defending against bugs than actually trading.

Meanwhile, communication is a joke.

They say “we’re listening” → ignore emails, ignore DMs.
They say “we’ll work with top users” → instead it’s random private Telegram groups with whoever shouts the loudest.
They say “issue fixed” → it clearly isn’t.

At some point you stop believing anything they say.

The fee situation is another one. If you’re generating serious volume and paying serious fees (thousands a day), most exchanges shower you with attention and perks. I'm not asking for that but would be nice to at least be acknowledged that you exist and have basic communication, especially after they've announced publicly multiple times that they will start doing this.

Instead we got a week-long hype campaign for a “big update” that turned out to be… a hidden fee increase.

How dumb do you think your users are?

And then stuff like April 5th, missed referral/rebate payments, no announcement, no explanation, nothing. Just silence. That’s not a bug, that’s trust damage.

The bigger issue is it feels like nobody on the team has actual trading experience. The design decisions show it. Every update introduces new edge cases, new exploits, new ways to break the order book.

People have made many millions exploiting this stuff. Many of these accounts are obvious, trackable, preventable. The community has been pointing it out for months.

Ignored.

Only now that the markets are borderline unusable does it seem like there’s urgency. Right now the platform is honestly close to untradeable:
– ghost fills
– manipulation
– unreliable payouts
– constant bugs
– zero transparency

And surprise, volume is dropping.

Meanwhile Kalshi is catching up fast (have basically overtaken in volume in almost every category except for politics) and Hyperliquid is entering with a team that actually understands trading systems.

I want Polymarket to succeed.

And yes, maybe the upcoming ghost fill fix helps. But if this pattern continues, terrible communication, fake timelines, ignoring core users, then this won’t be a place serious traders stick around.

You can’t build a market while eroding the trust of the people who provide the liquidity, especially not as a many multi billion dollar company! I have spoken to many large polymarket whales (of which a considerable amount have already given up on the platform) and they all share this sentiment.

@Polymarket @mustafap0ly @SuhailKakar @_kanarazu_