Johan

Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. - e/acc. - Free speech. - Stocks & Semiconductors. - Author of 🇺🇲🇸🇪🇺🇦

[Johan @semicap]

Ahead of OFC I've published my piece on Sivers Semiconductors $SIVE, a $130m mcap 🇸🇪-based CPO, LiDAR and SATCOM play with customer engagements such as Ayar Labs @AyarLabs and ALLSPACE @allspaceltd

Companies mentioned: $LITE $COHR $MTSI $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $AIXA

Link below👇

[Johan @semicap]

@ardent_investor @SpaceX Nothing new.

[The Information @theinformation]

xAI’s GPU fleet is running at about 11% utilization, exposing how hard it is for AI labs to fully use expensive Nvidia hardware.

Read more in our AI Agenda newsletter: https://t.co/32tIx6HLf8

[Johan @semicap]

Did @SpaceX just casually add $11 billion in annual revenue for compute capacity, a few days ahead of its IPO?

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Anthropic and Google are now paying @SpaceX a combined $2.17 billon per month for compute capacity. That's a revenue run rate of $26 billion per year. BIG MONEY.

[Johan @semicap]

@Franzen_Fabian The Zuck got our backs this time!

[Johan @semicap]

So... did every hyperscaler simultaneously announce a capex pause today? Did Berkshire yank their $10 billion back from Alphabet?

Or just noise?

[Johan @semicap]

@playerzerozero1 Ja, en årsavkastning i vissa bolag skojar man inte bort.

[Johan @semicap]

@Pungsnigel @Snaljapen Att slå ihop xAI med SpaceX inför SpaceX stundande IPO var nog det smartaste Musk kunde göra, och utgör en stor andel av SOTP.

Kommer behövas mycket kapital för att xAI, Anthropic och OpenAI ska kunna realisera sina planer. xAI har snart bäst tillgång till kapitalmarknaden.

[Dan Nystedt @dnystedt]

TSMC’s visibility extends to 2030, the reason for its optimism over the AI trend and confidence in its goal of mid-30% year-on-year revenue growth this year, media report, adding TSMC’s chairman said the explosion of AI-related demand caught industry by surprise, and shortages remain “everywhere across the supply chain.” $TSM $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN $AMD #semiconductors #semiconductor https://t.co/S96IFrVKsG

[Johan @semicap]

@MMIV_Capital Tror iofs det är väldigt drivet av agenter.

[Johan @semicap]

Bots have officially taken over the internet, per Cloudflare data.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$TSM CEO C.C. Wei warned global chip supply will fall short of AI-driven demand for years.

He said TSMC still cannot meet demand from U.S. customers, even with more U.S. capacity coming online over the next few years.

TSMC reiterated its forecast for more than 30% sales growth this year and expects capex to trend toward the high end of its prior range of up to $56B. Wei also said TSMC does not plan abrupt price hikes like those seen in memory, aiming instead for stable long-term customer relationships.

[Tom Samuelsson @tomsamuelsson]

Marco Rubio hyllar Sverige på nytt:
USA:s utrikesminister Rubio hyllade Sverige för vårt ansvarstagande, vår självförsörjning och vår starka industri, i gårdagens hearing i senaten.

Sveriges högteknologiska kunnande och ”do it yourself”-anda gör landet till en attraktiv partner, enligt Rubio.

[Johan @semicap]

@ariaradnia @VJNCapital I believe there will be one more leg up this cycle. Driven by topline and gross margin (price premiums paid) expansion.

[Johan @semicap]

Morgan Stanley increases their EUV shipment estimates for 2028. $ASML is now expected to ship 104 EUV tools in '28.

In my Atlas Copco $ATCO case (see below) I estimated 100-105 EUV shipments in 2028. Benefitting ATCO VT segment.

Glad that I'm not alone in my bullish $ASML view.

[Johan @semicap]

Atlas Copco's $ATCO.A Vacuum Technique segment is probably the cleanest AI-fab supercycle exposure inside a European industrial.

Atlas Copco is the dominant integrated sub-fab supplier for $ASML EUV tools. Their integrated sub-fab offering combines dry vacuum pumps, hydrogen abatement systems and recovery systems that recycles >70% of hydrogen used in EUV tools. With hydrogen as a meaningful operating-cost line item in an EUV sub-fab, it is easy to understand why this equipment is vital.

The most predictable forward indicator for Atlas VT order intake trajectory is ASML's EUV pipeline. ASML shipped 48 EUV systems in 2025 (44 low-NA and 4 high-NA). They are building capacity to ship more than 80 low-NA EUV tools in 2027. I believe 2028 shipments will reach ~90 low-NA EUV tools + perhaps 10-15 high-NA tools on top.

With 2nm and 1.4nm/A14/14A nodes approaching, vacuum content per system scales upward given larger optics chambers, higher hydrogen flows (particularly in high-NA tools), and additional abatement throughput. EUV photons transmit extremely well through hydrogen (most other gases absorb them), so the entire light path runs in a low-pressure hydrogen environment instead of pure vacuum, driving demand for VT's equipment.

Demand for Atlas Copco's sub-fab equipment will grow significantly due to more EUV tools shipped, driven by rising EUV-layer counts in Logic (from ~14 at 5nm to ~26 at 2nm to over 30 at 1.4nm/A14). And also due to more VT equipment per tool, driven by hydrogen recovery and higher source power.

Add DRAM EUV adoption (Samsung 1c, SK Hynix 1c, Micron 1γ) on top of the HBM/AI memory supercycle to the mix and you get a multi-year demand step-up that should outpace headline WFE growth.

Base case: VT order intake hits SEK 55-65bn by 2028 vs. SEK 36bn in 2025. A 50-80% uplift (15-22% CAGR), which will likely push the valuation multiple higher once the market realizes it.

[Ayar Labs @AyarLabs]

Today, @AyarLabs announced it has joined the @nvidia NVLink Fusion ecosystem, introducing co-packaged optics as a foundational building block for hyperscalers and system innovators deploying heterogeneous compute in NVIDIA AI factories.

Press Release:
https://t.co/vNhVcHzLIA

[Johan @semicap]

Mitt tips för den som vill vara med på nästa stora teknikskiften inom halvledarbranschen.

Läs på om
1. Hybrid Bonding
2. Silicon Photonics

Båda kommer fundamentalt ändra hur komponenter paketeras och kommunicerar med varandra. Båda lär driva behov av ny avancerad utrustning.

[Johan @semicap]

With Ayar Labs, Lightmatter and others approaching volume manufacturing for silicon photonics based optical I/O solutions (backed by Nvidia, AMD and Intel), $Aehr has also identified a third potential new market vertical for WLTBI.

[Johan @semicap]

With the photonics sector heating up I want to highlight my piece covering "The memory wall and its implications", what is driving the adoption of optics in datacenters, and a few benefitting companies.

$MRVL $COHR $LITE $MTSI $POET $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $SIVE

Link in post below 👇

[Johan @semicap]

Silicon Photonics believers:

Pay attention ❗

[Johan @semicap]

$ASML has joined the meeting

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

SK HYNIX TO DOUBLE MEMORY CHIP WAFER CAPACITY OVER FIVE YEARS

[Jukan @jukan05]

CPO supply chain