MMIV

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

$SIVE / $SIVEF — Investment Thesis (May 28, 2026)
I’m long $SIVE. DYOR.

CONFIRMED BULLISH

1. Jabil — 1.6T LRO transceiver with Sivers DFB lasers. Fortune 500, $28B revenue. Only announces laser partnerships when validated for volume.

2. CHIPS Act — $5.6M EW, $6M 5G/6G, $6.6M EW STAR Year 2. DoD doesn't fund Year 2 unless Year 1 delivered.

3. Ayar Labs — Sole laser supplier. Lumentum and MACOM removed from website. $500M raised from NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, MediaTek.

4. LiDAR / AEVA — $53-138M lifetime revenue, production ramp Q4 2026. Inside NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion.

5. Tachyon — First 5G mmWave mass production order, $2.8M at 28GHz.

6. O-Net + Enablence — ELS partnerships for Asian hyperscaler chains confirmed at OFC 2026.

7. GlobalFoundries SCALE — Sivers named as one of two laser suppliers. AMD chose GFS for CPO.

8. WIN Semi — Capacity locked in during confirmed CW laser shortage.

9. CW Shortage — Annual report confirms shortage. Lumentum CEO admits buying CW externally.

10. TAM Expansion — Pluggables added to SAM. Commitments expected 2027+.

11. https://t.co/F4ZXJbwOVw — TRL6 for US Army. Production ramp H2 2026.

12. IRIS2 — Only EU supplier of mmWave beamformer ICs for SATCOM.

13. Contracts — $900K ESA, Intelsat, $1.5M Doosan Korea, $800K US defense prime.

14. Golden Dome — Allspace acquired by York Space Systems, linked to US Space Force and $185B Golden Dome.

15. Ownership — ~47% US institutional. Fidelity, Schwab, Goldman, JPM all positioned.

16. Anders Storm — Former CEO: "Institutional allocators have identified what most Swedish investors haven't yet."

17. Coherent CEO — "Massive supply demand imbalance on CPO." Scale-out H2 2026, scale-up H2 2027.

18. Goldman Sachs — Optical TAM 9x to $154B by 2028. GS holds a position in Sivers.

19. InP Shortage — IntelliEPI CEO: "Bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure."

20. Three Index Inclusions — MSCI, Nasdaq Stockholm, OMXSB. Combined ~$60M passive buying May 29-June 1.

21. Nasdaq NY Dual Listing — PCAOB audit uplift confirmed underway.

22. POET — $50M initial, $500M framework with Lumilens. Sivers is the laser source.

23. Amazon chain — Amazon > Alchip > Ayar > Sivers. Confirmed without Amazon naming Sivers directly.

24. Ayar + Wiwynn — Official CPO rack-scale partnership at Computex. ~512 SuperNova/rack. Clients: Amazon, Meta, Microsoft.

25. USA-Sweden Tech Deal — Signed May 22, https://t.co/S6S5V14azK. Covers 5G/6G, semis, AI, defense, space.

26. EU Chips Act 2.0 — Sivers named in blueprint alongside ASML, Infineon, Nokia, Soitec.

27. New Board — M&A specialists Nideborn and Svancar added. Nokia CTO Karin Raj re-elected.

28. Marvell / Celestial — Amazon selected, 2x $150M revenue ramp, high volume manufacturing underway.

SPECULATIVE BULL

1. Nokia as Tier-1 FWA customer — $5.4M program, Gen 1 end 2026. Profile matches. Not confirmed.

2. Celestial laser link — OSINT mapping, not named disclosure.

3. Apple — Fortune 100 customer, RFQ for 50M units/year. Not confirmed.

4. AMD overflow — Lumentum/Coherent allocated through 2028. Sivers may be only option. Not confirmed.

CONFIRMED BEARISH

1. PCAOB restatements — EBIT 26% larger loss, equity 127 MSEK lower. No customers lost.

2. Going concern — Depends on continued capital raises.

3. Customer concentration — 50%+ revenue from three Wireless customers.

4. Pre-revenue — Jabil, AEVA, Ayar not yet in meaningful volume.

5. Short interest — Two Sigma 2.22% (increased), Voleon 2.44%. Total ~7.3% of capital.

6. Options liability — ~SEK 43M social charge provision. April SEK 125M emission addresses it.

7. Dilution — Board authorised 47.9M new shares (~15%) until June 15 AGM.

8. EBM investigation — Insider trading probe re: Serenity's April 13 post. Could affect Nasdaq timing.

SPECULATIVE BEAR

1. Integrated light sources win — disrupts Sivers model.

2. Chinese competition — Innolight, Hisense, Everbright scaling fast.

3. Apple risk — If not Apple, 50M units/year thesis disappears.

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@semicap Helt sjukt, forsätter det så kommer det till slut bli oanvändbart tror jag eller väldigt nära

[The Asian Investor @asianinvestors]

Here's my take on $SIVE insider sale. Breaking down facts from noise

I believe there are several legitimate, reasons for Harish sale of 1.4 million shares on May 29 that doesn't necessarily arrived to the conclusion that he has lost confidence in the company (like many bears are claiming)

After the stock’s massive run-up, selling a large portion of his remaining major stake is a standard way for executives to diversify personal holdings and reduce concentration risk, especially following the 2021 MixComm acquisition where he built his significant equity.

https://t.co/0ASegztotQ

He has a clear precedent for tax-driven sales: in December 2022, he sold shares explicitly “to pay taxes incurred in connection with the sale of MixComm to Sivers.”

https://t.co/xqMAdBWPML

Similar partial sales occurred in March 2026, suggesting routine rebalancing or liquidity needs.

He sold on 29/05/2026, which was on earnings day.

Why is that significant?

Selling on or around earnings release (when trading volume and liquidity are typically higher) is common for such personal financial transactions. Many insiders also use pre-scheduled trading plans (similar to U.S. Rule 10b5-1 arrangements) to execute sales on a predetermined basis, which helps avoid any appearance of trading on material non-public information.

While Harish Krishnaswamy’s sale of his entire remaining ~1.4 million share stake is a slightly yellow flag, marking a full exit by the head of the Wireless segment (69% of revenue) after a sharp run up, there’s a strong silver lining.

Harish is a tenured professor of Electrical Engineering at Columbia University and heads the CoSMIC Lab. He has always balanced his academic work with his role at Sivers.

This background makes selling all his shares a sensible personal finance decision, he is simply cashing in after the big stock rise and reducing risk.

It does not mean he has lost confidence in the company.

He continues as Managing Director of the Wireless division with ongoing positive commentary on deals and CHIPS Act funding, indicating his role and belief in the company remain intact.

Such transactions are common personal financial decisions in volatile growth stocks and do not necessarily signal negative fundamentals. And as @aleabitoreddit said, insiders sell all the time and no one bats an eye. I believe short sellers are using this news to put downward pressure on the stock.

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

SEK 125M raised in April. Q1 burn was SEK 49M/quarter. That’s ~2.5 quarters of runway at current burn, but burn drops as revenue ramps H2 2026. AEVA LiDAR production starts Q4 2026. Jabil pluggable revenue follows. EU Chips Act structural funding incoming. The math gets better every quarter from here, not worse.

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

The three public short sellers in $SIVE/ $SIVEF are sitting on combined ~1 billion SEK in unrealized losses.

Voleon -111%. Two Sigma -86%. Qube -45%.

And they still haven’t covered. The math is getting painful.

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@Bullshark_2012 April SEK 125M emission already done. EU Chips Act 2.0 went live today with Sivers as a named photonics partner. Customer prepayments coming with 2027 volume ramps. Cash runway extended.

[Ayar Labs @AyarLabs]

Today, @AyarLabs announced it has joined the @nvidia NVLink Fusion ecosystem, introducing co-packaged optics as a foundational building block for hyperscalers and system innovators deploying heterogeneous compute in NVIDIA AI factories.

Press Release:
https://t.co/vNhVcHzLIA

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@OGCapital25 Generational debt after this +70%

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@NingiResearch Must be a fun day

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@StormDirac Kul att vara Ningi idag

[Anders Storm @StormDirac]

Breaking news! 💥

Sivers $SIVE & GlobalFoundries $GFS Advance AI Data Center Optical Solutions

Tue, Jun 02, 2026 07:00 CET

Sivers’ laser arrays to support GlobalFoundries’ silicon photonics platform and SCALE™ optical engine solutions targeting a $25B Pluggable Optics market by 2030

Kista, Sweden – June 2, 2026 – Sivers Semiconductors AB (STO:SIVE), a global leader in photonics and wireless technologies, today announced a strategic collaboration with GlobalFoundries (Nasdaq: GFS) (GF), to develop advanced silicon photonics solutions for the high-growth AI infrastructure market.

Sivers Semiconductors’ laser arrays will be integrated into reference designs built on GF’s silicon photonics platform. The collaboration supports a range of optical connectivity architectures, including co-packaged optics (CPO), linear pluggable optics (LPO), and other emerging data center interconnect solutions. Sivers’ laser arrays will also be available in GF’s Silicon Photonics Co-packaged Advanced Light Engine (SCALE™) platform for next-generation optical sub-assemblies and light engine architectures. GF’s SCALE CPO solution combines integrated photonic devices, coarse and dense wavelength-division multiplexing (CWDM, DWDM) and advanced packaging enablement to improve bandwidth density and system scalability.

https://t.co/xyns9R2hAJ

[Ayar Labs @AyarLabs]

As AI clusters scale, CPO is emerging as the only solution capable of delivering the bandwidth density and efficiency demands. That's why we partnered with Wiwynn to bring this technology to rack-scale AI systems.

Dive deeper:
https://t.co/DKtIWTIjnJ

#COMPUTEX2026

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@MisterMCAP Kan du berätta lite kortfattat vad du baserar $SHT på? Är det enbart Nvidia kontraktet eller finns det något annat jag missat?

[Anders Storm @StormDirac]

If you're going to build a short thesis on half-truths and factual inaccuracies, you should at least ensure those claims withstand basic due diligence. Several of the central claims in this report can be disproven through publicly available documents, company filings, press releases, and industry knowledge. Once a researcher is caught presenting misleading or incomplete information on easily verifiable facts, the credibility of the entire report comes into question. Just to mention one simple thing: The yield. Everyone knows within the industry that you do not share Yield numbers. Then saying yield for InP is 95%, shows how little this team knows about this. If you are in the III-V industry, you know that for a single-wavelength Indium Phosphide (InP) Distributed Feedback (DFB) laser, standard manufacturing yields typically range between 40% and 70%, at the bare die level and this is well-know and included in the pricing as for arrays if they have lower yield. Fun fact is that this well-known fact: actually increase the InP bottleneck they betting against.

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@h79sharesunder Genuin fråga nu. För att lägga upp extremt mycket om Sivers och vara väldigt bear emot det har du någon position? Eller lägger du alltså så här mycket tid på en aktie du egentligen inte har något intresse i mer än att den är HYPEad?

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@athuinvests If it continues with the same rate as it has this month (which is very unlikely because 72% a month is very high) it will be around 120Sek. So 100Sek in the end of the year is almost inevitable. I would say 100Sek before H2.

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@NotA_Bull I agree

[Anders Storm @StormDirac]

Sivers Semiconductors $SIVE Q1 2026: Strong pipeline growth of 77% YTD, with softer sales YoY. Effected by US ChipAct delay and Fx in the short term.

Main focus in the investor call on pipeline growth, as well as the three super cycles AI, SATCOM and DoD.
2027 multiple ramp is anticipated;

Highlights:
-Opportunity Pipeline strengthened significantly
May 2026 Pipeline at $799M (77% increase from end of FY2025)

-US CHIPS Act Year 2 funding ($6.6M) for Electronic Warfare program

-Broad market beamformers and lasers igniting strong customer interest

Executing well on multiple product ramps for 2026/2027:

-Production builds in progress for Automotive LiDAR customer

-On-track for product readiness in 2027 for AI datacenter lasers

-Tachyon production PO ($3M) for 2026 and new 60 GHz contract

-Production orders imminent from lead SATCOM customer for 2027 ramp

-Tier-1 Telco vendor FWA product in advanced integration and trials

US Listing:
Investing in higher standards of financial control for US listing

$JBL update - Collaboration with Jabil:

- 1.6T Pluggables Differentiated, Low Power Linear Receive Optics (LRO) Pluggable Solution

- World-leading Contract Manufacturer (>$30B sales)
Investing in rapidly growing Intelligent Infra segment

- Strong entry into existing Pluggables market in AI datacenters

-Supporting builds for upcoming product qualification and field trials

Interesting near term triggers:
- Jabil Collaboration has triggered strong interest from other potential customers

- Production orders imminent from lead SATCOM customer for 2027 ramp

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@Tradezart @xGuineapig Det är den verkliga risken. Om 2027 håller finansierar kunderna rampen. Om det försenas ytterligare är utspädningsrisken reell. Det är spekulationen du tar.

[MMIV @MMIV_Capital]

@theragingbullX Pipeline grew 77% to $799M in the same quarter. That’s the number that matters for a pre-volume company. EPS on development contracts is irrelevant noise.