most apps don't go viral because of marketing
they go viral because someone felt something using it and needed to tell someone else
you can't manufacture that
but you can build for it
If you deliver a stellar first product experience and help users experience the value of your product, they'll likely continue to use it. This is critical
I've watched 100+ creators go from $0 to $10K/month.
The pattern is almost always the same:
Months 1 to 3: they post content nobody sees.
Months 3 to 6: one post randomly pops off. They try to recreate it.
Months 6 to 9: they figure out their actual format.
Month 9+: revenue finally clicks.
Most people quit at month 4. Right when the data is actually starting to tell them something.
Always price your product for mindshare, not margin.
everyone thought we were insane for undercharging for Cal AI.
but cheap enough becomes an impulse buy
an impulse buy becomes a habit
and habit becomes the default and obvious choice
you can fix margins later, but if you never capture enough mindshare you’re NGMI
So I plan to make it 99 cents for the first 5000 'founding users', the goal is to build the moat, and usability that would come from the usefulness of that data
Knowing this is not enough, Im picking up Product-Led Onboarding by Ramli John, I plan to build a high converting onboarding flow and the paywall is for 99 cents.
I know that the onboarding flow is where the app dies or thrives, since every user, regardless of whether the app is for them or not will have the same, singular experience. So I used Claude design with Fable 5 to prototype two alternative onboarding flow and have decided on one
the single greatest thing you can do for your sanity is to take life seriously. we live in a profoundly irony-poisoned society and you cut off 1/100th of what life can offer you by being a goofball. the jester may be near the king but he does not sit at the hand of the father
THE FUTURE OF SOFTWARE M&A
I’ve looked at buying more than 100 software businesses doing $3M ARR or less in the last 3 months.
And every time I evaluated one, I asked myself the same question: how fast could a competent founder rebuild this with Claude Code?
This made me realize there are now only 2 kinds of software businesses.
Type 1: Utility businesses.
These are feature-first products with value in the code or interface. They can be rebuilt QUICKLY, depend on ads or creator posts for distribution, and have no STRONG forces (community, network, data moats etc) that strengthen over time..
If they were worth 3x ARR before AI, many might now be worth 1–2x because the core product can be rebuilt faster than ever. If someone can clone it in 48 hours with Claude Code, Cursor, and a few automations, the defensibility collapses.
Doesn’t it warrant a LOWER multiple?
Type 2: Compounding businesses.
These are products where the value sits OUTSIDE the code. Distribution loops, workflow lock-in, proprietary data, community density, and network effects.
A rebuild does not replace these dynamics, and they gain strength as they grow.
These businesses will be worth MORE going forward because they survive the collapse in creation cost.
If they were worth 3x ARR before AI, some maybe worth 6x because if you can really add features with Claude Code/Cursor etc faster then ever before/cut costs faster than ever before/grow with social faster than ever before
Doesn't it warrant a HIGHER multiple?
Type 1 companies will struggle to sell at meaningful multiples because they can be recreated faster than they can be acquired.
Type 2 companies, even at modest revenue, become premium assets because they cannot be copied by starting from scratch.
This is the FUTURE of software M&A.
Once you see it, it’s hard to unsee, and even harder to justify pretending the old playbook still works.
I haven't seen many people talk about this shift around multiples.
TLDR; mulitples are compressing for utility apps, increasing for compounding apps
Am I wrong?
my only advice to people who ask me for advice:
you must learn to tell simple compelling stories.
this skill will compound like crazy in every facet of your life.
that’s it.