Simon

live fast, grow old

[Charles Archer @that_stocks_guy]

#ALRT @wearedefence

If you want insight into where Defence Holdings is going, there's only one place to get it.

https://t.co/K7LewWyJzd

[Guardian Metal Resources PLC @GuardianMetRes]

A busy few days in Washington D.C. for #gmtl's Exec Chair @StarzeckiJ, meeting with the U.S. DoE, EXIM’s Project Vault, the National Security Council, Commerce and on Capitol Hill.

Reshoring 🇺🇸 tungsten production is a national security priority. #gmet is leading the charge.

[Guardian Metal Resources PLC @GuardianMetRes]

Guardian Metal’s board and senior management wrapped up a highly productive week in Nevada.

Multiple days on the ground at Pilot Mountain and Tempiute, followed by strategy and planning sessions.

The goal is clear:

Deliver Mined-In-America tungsten.

#gmtl #gmet

[Simon @sh2ofall]

@onestopstores @Tesco DO BETTER.
My son applied to your online portal for a job 2 wks ago + he hand delivered an application. just popped into the store and the mgr told me they’d already hired. I asked why he hadn’t had a no and she told me she was too busy to reply to everyone

[Oliver Friesen @oliverjfriesen]

✅ It’s official, tungsten prices break $3,000 $/mtu.

Decades of underinvestment in this extremely critical metal led us here.

Geopolitical tensions further reinforce the need for 🇺🇸 mined sources of critical metals.

@GuardianMetRes got positioned 5️⃣ years ago.

#gmtl #gmet

[MP Investments @Youngin74703257]

#GMET $GMTL

[Oliver Friesen @oliverjfriesen]

One of the most viral tungsten posts I’ve seen.

And a reminder: this is NOT just a defense story (military ~15% of demand). Tungsten underpins semiconductors, industrial tooling, and advanced manufacturing.

Building the 🇺🇸 supply chain: @GuardianMetRes

NYSE: #GMTL LON: #GMET

[Oliver Friesen @oliverjfriesen]

One of the only commodities in the green (other than oil) was tungsten on Friday - up almost 18% from the previous week with a mid price of $2,650/mtu.

The 🇺🇸 needs tungsten mined supply at home.

#gmtl #gmet @GuardianMetRes

[Oliver Friesen @oliverjfriesen]

Most important week in the Company’s history thus far ✅

Brilliant outcome in what are challenging markets at the moment.

The @GuardianMetRes 🇺🇸 tungsten story is more important than ever and we are ready to make the next chapter for the business a big success.

#gmtl #gmet

[Tiggrrr @tiggrrr888]

Stanley Druckenmiller backed @GuardianMetRes
Goes live on the @NYSE under new Ticker #GMTL , also on UK AIM 🇬🇧 #GMET
Pure play #Tungsten , bringing 2 #Nevada based giants of assets alive and into production by the end of 2028
#DrillBabyDrill #Critical

https://t.co/YYn90DaFfY

[Simon @sh2ofall]

Didn’t he do that 🧐

[Neil Saunders @NeilRetail]

🇬🇧 BrewDog founder accuses new owner of wiping out small shareholders https://t.co/z1adrWjcdl

[Neil Saunders @NeilRetail]

🇬🇧 BrewDog founder accuses new owner of wiping out small shareholders https://t.co/z1adrWjcdl

[Guardian Metal Resources PLC @GuardianMetRes]

We are excited to announce our debut on the @NYSE under the ticker symbol "GMTL".

CEO @oliverjfriesen will ring The Closing Bell at 4pm today to celebrate this important milestone.

#GMTL #GMET

[Simon @sh2ofall]

#GMET

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

THE US DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL BASE + THE AI BUILDOUT ARE ABOUT TO COLLIDE IN THE SAME SUPPLY CHAIN, CREATING THE FIRST TUNGSTEN SUPERCYCLE.

Bloomberg just reported on the 557% tungsten rally. Here's the thesis on why they are wrong and why this isn't a rally. It's a supercycle.

Tungstens uptrend was happening over a eyar before the Iran/US disruption. It was first triggered by geo-political policy via US/China decoupling.

The U.S NDAA ban goes live January 1, 2027. No Chinese-origin tungsten in any US defence contract. Not a proposal. Law. Bipartisan. Signed.

China controls 82% of global supply. And they've already stopped exporting.

Every prior tungsten price shock, WWII, Korea, 2012 was driven by defence demand alone. When the war ended, prices collapsed. One buyer disappeared and the cycle ended.

But here's THE MOST VITAL DIFFERENCE FROM ANYTHING ELSE IN HISTORY

This time something exists that has never existed before in tungsten's history: a second structural buyer that doesn't care about war or peace.
Semiconductors.

TWO SECTORS THAT ARE GOING TO SIPHON 60% OF THE SUPPLY BY 2030

Every chip at ≤22nm nodes uses tungsten plugs connecting transistors to copper wiring. A single 300mm wafer uses 2-5g of tungsten. $TSM processes 9.6M of those wafers a month.

The CVD chambers depositing films onto $NVDA, $TSM, $INTC wafers run on tungsten hexafluoride, a direct downstream product of APT. The sputtering targets in PVD deposition weigh 2-15kg each and get consumed over 200-500 wafers. The heating elements in wafer annealing furnaces run at 2,200°C+ continuously.

Semiconductors weren't a meaningful tungsten consumer until sub-22nm nodes went to mass production around 2016-2018. AI data centres only started scaling in 2023. This demand vertical literally didn't exist during any prior tungsten squeeze.

The semiconductor industry consumed 2,500t of tungsten in 2024. By 2030 that doubles to 5,000-6,000t.

For context: total non-Chinese global tungsten production is only 14,000t.

Semiconductors alone going from 2,500t to 5,500t means the chip industry's share of non-Chinese supply goes from 18% -> 39%. And that's before defence demand, which is the fastest-growing end market at 10.8% CAGR.

This is why this isn't a spike. It's a supercycle.

The NDAA legally mandates non-Chinese tungsten for defence. China's export ban physically enforces it on everyone else. The result is the same. ALL Western demand, defence and commercial, funnels into the same two producers.

Even if Iran de-escalates tomorrow and defence urgency fades, $TSM still runs 9.6M wafers a month. $NVDA still needs tungsten hexafluoride for every CVD chamber. $ASML's customers still need PVD sputtering targets. The AI buildout doesn't stop because a ceasefire gets signed.

The demand floor is structural, not cyclical. That has never existed before in tungsten's history. This is the first tungsten supercycle not because of war, but because war and AI collided in the same supply chain at the same time.

So where does the West actually get it?

There are only two Western producers at meaningful scale:

• $EQR.AX -> 3,000-4,000t/yr (Mt Carbine, Australia + Barruecopardo, Spain)
• $ALT -> 5,300t/yr (Sangdong, South Korea + Panasqueira, Portugal)

Combined that's roughly 50-70% of all non chinese tungsten output.

EQR: 21-29% of Western supply (A$1.8B MC)
ALT: 30-35% of Western supply ($4.4B MC)

That's the entire NDAA-compliant supply base for $LMT, $RTX, $NOC, $GD, Anduril, and every defence prime such as $RHM.DE and $BA.L.

And it's not just the US. Europe imports 31% of its tungsten from China and... China has already cut them off.

The EU Critical Raw Materials Act lists tungsten as both critical and strategic. $BA, $RHM, $LDO, $HO, the entire NATO industrial base is competing for the same Western supply. The NDAA is the legal deadline. China's export ban is the physical one. Both point to the same two producers.

Same structure as $AXTI / Sumitomo before the InP re-rate. These companies were rated as boring material miners. Now they are in the middle of the largest two capexes in the world. AXTI did 1,000% in a year on thesis recognition. Then 4x'd in 3 months when the supply squeeze became undeniable.

Tungsten is the densest practical metal on earth. No substitutes in:

•Armour-piercing rounds
•Kinetic energy penetrators -> Javelin, TOW, every modern anti-tank munition
•Missile components and counterweights in fighter jets
•Machine tooling that manufactures the ammunition itself

This EXACT SITUATION has happened before.
During the Korean War the US cut off Chinese tungsten and scrambled to stockpile from allied producers. Tungsten traded at 0.62% of the gold price. The US sent government engineers to develop the Sangdong mine in South Korea and agreed to buy ALL tungsten produced.

73 years later $ALT just restarted that exact same mine. Same deposit. Same geopolitical driver.
Today tungsten trades at 0.23% of gold. That's a third of the Korean War ratio.

APT at $2,250/MTU (Fastmarkets weekly benchmark) with spot transactions hitting $3,000/MTU. Korean War equivalent at today's gold price: $8,000/MTU. -> +166% from here just to match a ratio from 1952.

Gold is already pricing in the world that makes tungsten strategically critical. Tungsten hasn't caught up.

This isn't theoretical. It's happening in real-time.
APT prices have gone from $863/MTU in late December to $3,000/MTU spot last week. +248% in 12 weeks. The weekly gains not decelerating.
(Up another $150/MTU (+7%) this week alone)

And the Chinese domestic market is now diverging from the Western market. SMM reported on March 14 that Chinese downstream buyers are going on strike three mine auctions failed in the same week as buyers resist record prices. Meanwhile Western spot hit $3,000/MTU the same day.

Two separate markets are forming. A Chinese domestic market where buyers can push back. And a Western NDAA-compliant market where defence primes have no alternative and will pay whatever it takes before January 2027.

$EQR and $ALT sell into the second one.

TLDR: a bidding war between hyperscalers with infinite capex and governments with infinite money print for defence across the entire NATO alliance. For a material controlled by two Western producers. Even as of today, China has refused U.S request to help the Strait of Hormuz, further de-coupling.

Please call out any misinfo/bear takes on this thesis. I spent a lot of time re-reading the same points to make the post cleaner, so potential for misteps.

DYOR. Not financial advice.

[Tiggrrr @tiggrrr888]

The implications for contained resource at Pilot Mountain and #Tempiute are astounding for @GuardianMetRes here. US main market IPO coming within weeks

#GMET on the 🇬🇧 AIM
$GMTLF on the 🇺🇸 OTCQB
Soon to be $GMTL on the 🇺🇸 mainboard

[Simon @sh2ofall]

@that_stocks_guy Ridiculous!

[Robert Friedland @robert_ivanhoe]

Pentagon sought fresh supply of 13 critical minerals day before Iran attack https://t.co/GhNHEB82QC

[Simon @sh2ofall]

@Jenkoool What the actual !

[Simon @sh2ofall]

#GMET

[Sijottelija @UnnajaSnoop]

Everyone is talking about gold, silver and copper - meanwhile the largest bull market is going mostly unnoticed: Tungsten went from $300 to $1000 in 2025. Then from $1000 to $1800 in less than 2 months in 2026 and it’s only the beginning..

Similar, but smaller metal rhodium went from $600 to $29000 in 2017-2021 with 10% deficit.

Tungsten is now in ~30% deficit and it has no substitutes. If the price trend continues, we’ll see >20k prices in a year.. New supply takes ages to come online and the supply will meet the demand roughly at 2029.

We are about to find out what happens when truly ubsubstitutable critical metal meets a huge supply crisis.

No large accounts are following this trend - which will inevitably create millionares of these who pay attention.

There are few ways to play this, but I’m going with the largest western producer EQ Resources which is gonna capture the majority actual cash flow created by this generational bull market.

Just to compare - Almonty will produce around 70’000MTU this year and is worth 5,3billion.

$EQR.AX will produce 300’000-400’000MTU and is worth 1billion.

Fundimentals always catch up: EQR will bypass Almonty this year.

To be honest, when the market catches up to this bull market and tungsten prices go parabolic, any tungsten stock will do multiples from here.

Do your research on the topic and don’t miss this generational opportunity!

[Oliver Friesen @oliverjfriesen]

A hugely productive few days in D.C. 🇺🇸

The 🇺🇸 is almost out of tungsten and this has significant national security implications.

@GuardianMetRes stands as the most advanced 🇺🇸 focused tungsten developer.

Extremely important few months and years ahead for #gmet #gmtlf