People don’t even support what they genuinely like anymore.
Everything became transactional.
If there’s no check attached, most big creators either stay silent or suddenly become “critics”.
Real alpha used to come from people excited to share gems early.
Crypto is the only industry where if you don’t pay people to support you
They’ll actively FUD or ignore you
This is especially true for the largest influencers & creators
How come nobody supports to support anymore?
Why does every opinion or piece of ‘alpha’ have to be paid?
If you give yourself infinite time to solve a real problem, it will happen. The biggest risk to any company is the founder giving up that’s what actually kills startups.
Essential perspective from the Kalshi team on the @KevinWSHPod podcast for anyone navigating the trenches of crypto and finance.
Mr Shift: What's the true innovation with prediction markets?
Kalshi CEO: There's many ways to answer that question. Um there's the Kalshi piece of it, but then there's the prediction market piece of it, which are not exactly the same.
“But the... the true innovation in prediction markets, I think, is this notion, like... and, and I think it has been built through a lot of literature, and then I think the prediction markets have come in our generation, like Kalshi and some of the others have proven it”
“The best way to answer like all these most pressing questions is like you have to ask the crowd”
Mr Shift: What's the true innovation with prediction markets?
Kalshi CEO: There's many ways to answer that question. Um there's the Kalshi piece of it, but then there's the prediction market piece of it, which are not exactly the same.
“But the... the true innovation in prediction markets, I think, is this notion, like... and, and I think it has been built through a lot of literature, and then I think the prediction markets have come in our generation, like Kalshi and some of the others have proven it”
“The best way to answer like all these most pressing questions is like you have to ask the crowd”
E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets
@mansourtarek_ is the co-founder and CEO of @Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:54 Urgency
3:11 Anime
4:53 Who is Tarek?
7:02 Mathematics & Certainty
9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder
13:33 Partnerships: @Trezor@Bitwise
15:19 Resilience
16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy
18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster
22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results
24:45 First time Founder advantage
26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not
29:54 Partnerships: @KASTxyz
31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results
33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story
36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets
38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media
41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply
44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets
47:16 Partnerships: @JupiterExchange@ethena
48:00 Insider Trading
51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible?
55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior
56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto
59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S
1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean?
1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid?
1:03:41 Competition
1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame
1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised
1:08:31 Happiness and engagement
1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of
1:14:18 Closing Thoughts
Mr Shift Asked The CEO of Kalshi, When Kalshi almost made it, but did not.
Mr shift: Has there been some times where you're thinking, "Ah, actually, it's finally happening," but then it didn't?
Kalshi CEO: So many times Yeah. Like, because you also really wanna believe it, right? Like, you really want to finally believe... you start like seeing product-market fit or like seeing things that just are not there, you know?
Mr Shift: Do you have an example?
Kalshi CEO: I mean with the election. When we were trying to list the election, every time we were so... like, we were convinced ourselves it's finally gonna happen, and now they're gonna do it, and, and, and they, that you... you know, they're definitely gonna approve it, and then they would just like not approve it.
E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets
@mansourtarek_ is the co-founder and CEO of @Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:54 Urgency
3:11 Anime
4:53 Who is Tarek?
7:02 Mathematics & Certainty
9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder
13:33 Partnerships: @Trezor@Bitwise
15:19 Resilience
16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy
18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster
22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results
24:45 First time Founder advantage
26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not
29:54 Partnerships: @KASTxyz
31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results
33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story
36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets
38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media
41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply
44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets
47:16 Partnerships: @JupiterExchange@ethena
48:00 Insider Trading
51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible?
55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior
56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto
59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S
1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean?
1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid?
1:03:41 Competition
1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame
1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised
1:08:31 Happiness and engagement
1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of
1:14:18 Closing Thoughts
Mr Shift Asked The CEO of Kalshi, When Kalshi almost made it, but did not.
Mr shift: Has there been some times where you're thinking, "Ah, actually, it's finally happening," but then it didn't?
Kalshi CEO: So many times Yeah. Like, because you also really wanna believe it, right? Like, you really want to finally believe... you start like seeing product-market fit or like seeing things that just are not there, you know?
Mr Shift: Do you have an example?
Kalshi CEO: I mean with the election. When we were trying to list the election, every time we were so... like, we were convinced ourselves it's finally gonna happen, and now they're gonna do it, and, and, and they, that you... you know, they're definitely gonna approve it, and then they would just like not approve it.
The Co-Founder Kalshi explains how they spots Suspicious Behavior and flag them.
Mr Shift: What about me telling my friend? I'm a politician, I tell my friend.
Kalshi CEO: That's the same thing.
Mr Shift: But how do we flag that?
Kalshi CEO: it's a lot of the same principles.
First, maybe just to define it, So if you work at Tesla and you know about like a product launch and you call your cousin and say, "Buy a bunch of options because it's coming” that's insider trading.
Kalshi CEO still talking:
So that's we agree that this is, you know, this is something that we should flag and we should police for.
Now, yes there is always the problem of like people do this in the stock market. Oftentimes people that work an executive of a company doesn't do it themselves, they tell a spouse, they tell a cousin or a friend.
Thats where surveillance comes into play. Um and again, it goes back to usually patterns of insider trading look suspicious and people do insider trading for bigger numbers.
E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets
@mansourtarek_ is the co-founder and CEO of @Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:54 Urgency
3:11 Anime
4:53 Who is Tarek?
7:02 Mathematics & Certainty
9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder
13:33 Partnerships: @Trezor@Bitwise
15:19 Resilience
16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy
18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster
22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results
24:45 First time Founder advantage
26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not
29:54 Partnerships: @KASTxyz
31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results
33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story
36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets
38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media
41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply
44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets
47:16 Partnerships: @JupiterExchange@ethena
48:00 Insider Trading
51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible?
55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior
56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto
59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S
1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean?
1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid?
1:03:41 Competition
1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame
1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised
1:08:31 Happiness and engagement
1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of
1:14:18 Closing Thoughts
@BlaqOnyemauche@Kalshi Exactly Markets generate signals and unusual activity often leaves a trail.
The challenge isn’t just spotting suspicious trades, but identifying the patterns that separate legitimate conviction from potential manipulation.
That’s why strong surveillance matters.