Why hasn't AI cured diseases yet?
What does it actually take to create the next 100 blockbusters? Learning from pharma & startup successes and failures.
๐๏ธ From Signal to Drug โ Where It Actually Breaks @dives86 โ CEO, @ShiftBioscience@jackcastle โ CBO, @OchreBio
Mythili Iyer โ Strategy, @ucb_news
Moderated by @LynettaWang126
๐๏ธ 16 Apr 2026 ยท 5:30โ8:30 PM
๐ London @IDEALondon
Co-organised by @LonLongevity & @age1vc.
You might leave with a new idea or a meaningful relationship.
๐ https://t.co/fGzTnog7eT
I'm excited to be speaking at @RNID's Hearing Therapeutics Summit 2025, which is helping to speed the development of therapeutics for hearing loss and tinnitus. With a strengthening link between age related hearing loss and the underlying aging process, hearing loss has become a new test bed for cellular rejuvenation gene therapy. Find out more about the programme https://t.co/UHB20Hf1pc
AI Virtual Cell vs Linear Modelโwho wins? ๐ค โ๏ธ ๐
Our preprint, entitled "๐๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฑ ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ-๐๐ข๐ด๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ต๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฆ๐ณ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฃ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ด ๐๐ฐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ ๐๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ฆ๐ญ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ฆ๐ญ๐ญ-๐๐ข๐ญ๐ช๐ฃ๐ณ๐ข๐ต๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐๐ฆ๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐ค๐ด", seeks to answer this question.
Paper โธ https://t.co/7RE7xGZT3g
Code โธ https://t.co/ig19iB4Z3A
๐ฎ ๐๐๐๐ค ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฌ
Every wet-lab biologist knows that positive and negative controls are fundamental to assess whether an assay or experiment worked. However, the genetic-perturbation modeling field has been lacking these anchors to judge whether a model is actually learning the task. While the dataset mean is often used as a negative control, we propose an ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐-๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ baseline as a positive control, approximating the best achievable performance for a given dataset.
๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง
With positive and negative controls, we analysed 14 perturbation datasets to see which metrics best separate the two. We call this difference the ๐๐ฒ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง (๐๐๐ ). Strikingly, widely used metrics like MSE and Pearson ฮ (relative to control) often show low DRF, indicating limited sensitivity to perturbation signals. Weighted MSE and normalized inverse ranking perform well.
๐ง ๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐
Using well-calibrated metrics, most deep-learning models outperform linear baselinesโand even additive models on combinatorial tasks. This holds from GEARS and scGPT to MLPs built on foundation-model embeddings.
Recently, a ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ of papers has cast doubt on the utility of deep learning for building the so-called AI Virtual Cell. Here, we show these models learn useful biology when evaluated with well-calibrated metrics. Looking forward to the bright future of the field!
Congrats to the first authors @Henrymiller2012, @g27182818, and @Fleblanc_3 for the absolutely fantastic work at @ShiftBioscience, alongside @BrendanMSwain and @BoWang87! ๐ฅ
๐ Weโre hiring a Computational Biologist (Toronto)
Atย Shift Bioscience, weโre uncovering the biology of cell rejuvenation to develop safe, effective therapies that reverse cellular aging ๐งฌ . Our platform integratesย single-cell biologyย andย machine learningย to identify and validate rejuvenation factors that restore youthful function to aged cells.
As a member of our Machine Learning team, youโll coordinate closely with the wet-lab team, analyze large-scale genomics data, and help evolve our AI-based target discovery platform.
What youโll do ๐ ๏ธ
โก๏ธ Build and maintain genomics pipelines (e.g., Nextflow)
โก๏ธ Analyse scRNA-seq and DNA methylation datasets
โก๏ธ Implement and apply aging clocks
โก๏ธ Collaborate with wet-lab scientists to test hypotheses
โก๏ธ Write clean, reproducible code and present results clearly
The ideal candidate has a strong biology background, solid coding skills, and clear communication โ experience with ML is a plus.
Read the full job description here: https://t.co/tkrCROEj8a
Send your CV and cover letter to [email protected]
(Pictured): The rest of the ML Team (Myself, Lucas Camillo, Gabriel Mejia, and Francis Leblanc) and our advisor, Bo Wang
#Rejuvenation #ComputationalBiology #Bioinformatics #MachineLearning #Longevity #Hiring #Toronto
Do deep generative models in single-cell omics really work for perturbation prediction?
Some benchmark studies say yes:
๐ https://t.co/JD6WRiYJRP
๐https://t.co/9EsmiiGwD0
Others say no:
๐ https://t.co/UMm3uQeKu4
๐ BMC Genomics: https://t.co/OogmiastJD
To move beyond this debate, we took a different approachโfocusing on evaluation metrics.
Iโm excited to share a new preprint, just accepted at the ICML GenBio Workshop:
โDiversity by Design: Addressing Mode Collapse Improves scRNA-seq Perturbation Modeling on Well-Calibrated Metricsโ
โข ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ: https://t.co/OJz7EdpqPL
โข ๐๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ & ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ๐: https://t.co/AmcQCeuoyi
๐งฌ So, why do simple baselines sometimes outperform SOTA models?
Because what we measure shapes what we discover. Our study shows that standard metrics can inflate the performance of naive models, hiding the true strengths and weaknesses of advanced approachesโand slowing progress toward robust โvirtual cellโ models.
๐ What we found:
โข Commonly-used metrics often reward memorization or average predictionโallowing kNN or mean baselines to outperform deep generative models
โข Evaluations on random splits or with unweighted errors can miss a modelโs ability to capture true biological effects
โข Many current benchmarks donโt truly test generalization to new perturbationsโa core requirement for real-world virtual cell applications
๐ ๏ธ What we recommend:
โข Adopt rigorous, biology-aware evaluationโsuch as leave-one-perturbation-out splitsโto test real generalization
โข Use metrics that reflect biologically meaningful differences, not just generic error rates
๐ Why it matters:
Well-designed metrics and benchmarks are foundational for building the next generation of virtual cell models. Without them, we risk confusing artificial progress for real advances in biology and medicine.
Huge thanks and congratulations to all the amazing co-authors: Gabriel Mejia, Henry E Miller, Francis Leblanc, Lucas Paulo de Lima Camillo and Brendan Swain!
Are you trying to build a so-called AIย virtual cell? ๐ฌ
Yet ... the mean still outperforms your perturbation-response prediction model. ๐ฎโ๐จ
Our paperโ just accepted to the ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ผ ๐ช๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฝ @ ๐๐๐ ๐ โdives into ๐ธ๐ฉ๐บ the mean excels and what you can do about it.
Paper โธ https://t.co/GBtlWknwtX
Code โธ https://t.co/RB3r3nGWm9
๐งช ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐
We modelled perturbed single-cell RNA-seq data ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ด๐ช๐ญ๐ช๐ค๐ฐ to see which experimental variables inflate mean-baseline performance under common metrics (MSE and Pearson-ฮ, computed for all genes and for the top-20 DEGs). Two stood out: ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐น ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ and ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐. Analyses of the datasets Replogle โ22 and Norman โ19 confirmed these trends: โ bias + โ perturbation effect = โ mean performance.
๐๏ธ ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐บ๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐
Pearson-ฮ is usually referenced to control cells, introducing a systematic bias that lets the mean perturbed profile perform well. Our fixes:
โข ๐ช๐ฒ๐ถ๐ด๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ ๐ฆ๐ (๐ช๐ ๐ฆ๐),ย a DEG-weighted metric that can also be easily incorporate into model training.
โข ๐ช๐ฒ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฅยฒ ฮ,ย referenced to the ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฃ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด instead of the control, capturing both the ๐ฅ๐ช๐ณ๐ฆ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ and ๐ฎ๐ข๐จ๐ฏ๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐ฅ๐ฆ of ฮ without the control bias.
๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐
For fair evaluation, we suggest three anchors:
1. ๐ก๐ฒ๐ด๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ โ control mean.
2. ๐ก๐๐น๐น โ mean of all perturbations; the bare-minimum a model should beat.
3. ๐ฃ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ โ ๐ต๐ฆ๐ค๐ฉ๐ฏ๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ต๐ฆ: predict one half of a perturbationโs cells from the other half; an empirical upper bound set by the dataset noise.
๐ง ๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด = ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ผ๐น๐ผ๐ด๐
Swapping MSE for WMSE lifted a perturbation model such as GEARS out of mode-collapse to capturing real biological variationโeven in difficult zero-shot, unseen-gene settings.
Centering ฮ on the mean of all perturbations, using DEG-weighted losses, and benchmarking against these calibrated baselines offers a robust recipe for perturbation modelling. With ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ ๐๐ป๐๐๐ถ๐๐๐๐ฒโ๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ kicking off, the community needs rigorous metrics and baselines more than everโmaking this paper particularly timely.
Shout-out to the co-first authors @Henrymiller2012 and @g27182818 for accelerating the discovery of cell rejuvenation genes @ShiftBioscience!
๐ New LEVITY episode is live!
Why tune in? Because a 24-person Cambridge startup may have beaten the billion-dollar OSK race with a single gene found by AI-powered virtual cells - and the early data look game-changing. (Links as always below.)
Just about the hottest thing in longevity science right now is partial reprogramming - using Yamanaka factors to rewind the biological clock in our cells. Billion-dollar giants like Altos, Retro, and New Limit are betting on it. But in this episode a far smaller player, Shift Bioscience, argues the field may be looking in the wrong place.
In an exclusive interview CEO Daniel Ives explains how his team used AI-driven virtual cells to uncover one gene that seems to match OSK-level rejuvenation. Without the tumor risk that haunts classical reprogramming.
Their just-released data could change aging research.
๐ In this conversation:
๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ Danielโs journey from mitochondrial PhD to founding Shift Bioscience.
โ Why Yamanaka-factor partial reprogramming excites the field and why itโs risky.
โ Epigenetic clocks 101 - Horvath, single-cell versions, what they really measure.
โ Building AI โvirtual cellsโ (transformers / GNNs) to run millions of in-silico experiments.
โ Discovery of new rejuvenation factor sets - incl. SB000, a lone gene that rejuvenates without inducing pluripotency.
โ Early wet-lab validation in fibroblasts & keratinocytes; mouse studies already under way.
โ How inhibition targets (not just over-expression) could cut timelines from 15 yrs to ~5 yrs.
โ Mapping a โrisk landscapeโ of age-linked diseases and why fibrosis may be the fastest clinical entry point
โ Funding Shift: from redundancy payout to a $16 M seed - and the next raise.
โ Timelines, escape-velocity hopes, and where cryonics still fits.
โ What Daniel would ask Jeff Bezos, and why pharma needs to โplug inโ now.
Thankyou @peterottsjo and @DrPatrickLinden for hosting me on the LEVITY @reachlevity podcast to discuss our preprint 'A single factor for safer cellular rejuvenation' and beyond! https://t.co/uQr85X5Kp7
Genuine epigenetic rejuvenation in primary cells has long been the holy grail. Aย groundbreaking preprint reveals that over-expression of a single (secret) gene overcomes this barrier: greatly reduced age estimates across in fibroblasts and keratinocytes according to validated epigenetic clocks including the Skin&Blood clock (Horvath 2018) and the original pan-tissue clock (Horvath 2013). In keratinocytes, this gene decreased the pan-tissue clock by nearly ten years for each month of treatment! Longitudinal sampling confirmed age REVERSAL. This gene seems to outperform even the Yamanaka factors (OSKM) while crucially avoiding pluripotency induction and its associated cancer risks.ย
Lucas Paulo de Lima Camillo,ย Daniel Ives,ย Brendan M. Swain (2025) A single factor for safer cellular rejuvenation.ย https://t.co/xjtoo7OQ6J
@eythorarnalds@lucascamillomd 1. Confirm a broader range of cell types can be rejuvenated
2. Demonstrate rejuvenated cells exhibit the same behaviour as younger cells
3. Progress to proof-of-concept rejuvenation studies in mouse models
Rare moments make you stop, stare, and imagine their future impact.
Iโm thrilled to share one of those moments from our work at @ShiftBioscience. Over the last few years, the data often felt unreal.
Today we compare the single-gene SB000 (Shift Bioscience 000) with the gold-standard Yamanaka factors OSK(M).
Key highlights
-โณ Efficacy โ in fibroblasts, SB000 is comparable to OSK in transcriptomic rejuvenation, including decreased senescence markers, and it even outperforms the cocktail across dozens of epigenetic clocks.
- โ๏ธ Safety โ SB000 preserves transcriptomic signatures of fibroblast identity and no pluripotent colonies are observed, in sharp contrast to OSK(M).
- ๐ Generalisability โ Rejuvenation extends to cells from a different germ layer. In keratinocytes, PCHorvath2013 fell by over 10 years and DunedinPACE by more than 20% over six weeks.
This is only a glimpse of what weโre cooking at Shift with @BrendanMSwain , @dives86, and the rest of the team. Super excited for the future of radical cellular rejuvenation!
Paper: https://t.co/Ow5X95yTdh
Iโm excited to welcome Lord David Prior and Sir Tony Kouzarides to the team at @ShiftBioscience! Joining as Chair of the Board, David brings a wealth of Board experience, including as Chairman of NHS England, to support the Companyโs long term mission to comprehensively reverse aging. Tony is a highly cited academic and entrepreneur, having co-founded both the Milner Therapeutics Institute and Abcam. As Scientific Advisor, Tony will help guide Shiftโs scientific strategy and help raise awareness of Shift's cell rejuvenation approach to age-driven diseases. Full announcement here https://t.co/eKZbnI1bMF
I'll be speaking at Founders Longevity Forum in London on 10th June at OXO2! Letโs connect in London โ whether you're building something new in Longevity biotech, investing in the future, or just curious about where the field is going next. Register your interest here: https://t.co/9dlD8JeCWm
Iโm excited to be part of a #SynBioBeta2025 panel discussing breakthroughs in epigenetic reprogramming and how this could transform Longevity biotech. Letโs connect in San Jose โ whether you're building the next big thing in Longevity biotech, investing in the future, or just curious about where biology is going next.
Epigenetic reprogramming has rapidly become the hottest area in longevity biotech, attracting unprecedented attention and billions in investment in just the last two years. Building on Shinya Yamanaka's Nobel Prize winning iPSC reprogramming, a new wave of biotech startups are racing to extend the concept to therapeutically rejuvenate the cells in our bodies. This panel brings together the leading researchers and entrepreneurs of this field to explore the science and recent breakthroughs driving the excitement, the challenges of bringing these therapies to market, and the future of a field that could redefine what it means to age.
1/ We're thrilled to announce Shift Bioscience @ShiftBioscience as a sponsor of Vitalist Bay - our 8-week longevity zone dedicated to combating aging at the cellular level using groundbreaking AI technology. ๐ฌ๐งฌ๐ป