Shira ❤️

Building @QuotientHQ | Founder @heygiftr | Creating brand magic with startups @byronfive | CEO of 👧🏻 👧🏻 👦🏼 | Bankr Club #307

[Shira ❤️ @Shira_LES]

Yesterday we announced that the Quotient token is coming.

For some, that was an introduction to @QuotientHQ.
Hi and welcome.

For others, especially those who remember Quotient’s earlier Farcaster chapter, it was a reintroduction.
Hi again, so good to see you.

For me, it made me think about how I got here.

I first became aware of Quotient when @amphib0ly was building a reputation scoring system on Farcaster. At the time, I was building @heygiftr, an identity-protected social gifting primitive. Quotient became one of Giftr’s customers and used it to send gifts to highly ranked accounts on its leaderboard.

That relationship grew into a consulting relationship through my brand and product studio, @byronfive. Eventually, I stopped feeling like an outside consultant and started helping build the company and product we have today.

I was new to prediction markets when I started. Honestly, they gave me the ick. The more time I spent with the team, the more I understood the category and what Quotient could become.

What really pulled me in was the way we worked together and how much bigger the idea became as I understood it.

This isn’t my first startup. I know a lot more this time around, and I’m much more protective of my time and who I build with. I care about how the work feels while we’re doing it and how what we build feels to the people using it. @QuotientHQ delivered on all fronts.

Prediction markets gave us a concrete place to test Q. From there, the vision grew into a broader forecasting system.

We are deeply AI-forward. Human judgment and creativity remain central to both the product and the way we work. Q reads and synthesizes evidence, coordinates supporting agents, and produces a probability forecast. People decide which questions matter, what we cover and when, where the system needs to improve, and what to do with the output.

Longer term, we’re building a forecasting ensemble where Q works alongside external agents to produce a stronger combined forecast.

We want to give our community and the people who use Quotient clearer intelligence, visible reasoning, and a record they can inspect when making their own decisions. That is the vision that keeps me here.

Yesterday’s announcement is one moment in a project that has been taking shape for a long time. I’m proud of what we’re building, and I genuinely enjoy building it with @amphib0ly and @niftytime.

I really appreciate everyone who has paid attention, asked questions, shared feedback, or simply stuck around to see where Quotient goes next. Thankful AF.

[deployer @0xDeployer]

@abram @QuotientHQ i made money with @QuotientHQ

[The Moe @GenuineRealMoe]

@bankrbot made @QuotientHQ a (the) top Featured Project!!!

Well deserved!

[Quotient @QuotientHQ]

Q’s price outlook was bullish on silver. Ok cool, so how could you use that intel to make a stock trade on @RobinhoodApp?

Our flow: Q’s intel → an agent using Robinhood’s MCP → a stock pick → an order placed on our instructions.

Here���s how it went down 👇

[matthew aka niftytime @niftytime]

Very nearly at the threshold for $QUOTIENT to be reviewed for a verified badge over on @fomo 👀

We hit $500k+ in 24-hour trading volume overnight. As soon as we hit $1M in trading volume (and get our mcap back up over $3M) we should automatically get pulled into an internal review queue. Lfg

[Quotient @QuotientHQ]

🎯 Q called it: Quotient forecast AfD to land 38-41 seats in Saxony-Anhalt at 80¢ when Polymarket had it at 72¢

Final result: AfD won 39 seats

Market resolved YES, 72¢ → 100¢. A +39% return

If you want signals like this early, hold 10M $QUOTIENT and visit https://t.co/a7B4TrmdOn

[Shira ❤️ @Shira_LES]

@TheFirmPressHQ is building @MacroStratFirm... and this is a fun one.

- Trading fees from its token fund a bot that uses Q’s forecasts to trade prediction markets.
- If it makes a profit, half goes toward buying back its token.
- The rest can help fund more trades, add funds to the token’s trading pool, or cover costs to run the bot.

So trading the token helps fund the bot and successful trades help buy back the token. Cool loop.

The token hasn’t launched yet and they’re calling this “recklessly experimental” (their words lol), but I’m very curious to see where it goes.

[MacroStrategy© by The Firm© @MacroStratFirm]

Introducing MacroStrategy: the recklessly experimental new prediction market auto-trader by @TheFirmPressHQ.

☞ https://t.co/3XVmi8zvEA

[Quotient @QuotientHQ]

hell yes. people are building with Q.

from traders using our intel to teams building automated perps strategies...we love seeing what people do with the data.

gg @agrislis @MandateMarkets @DeGodey2 🤝

[Quotient @QuotientHQ]

gm to everyone recovering from Shelton/Alcaraz 🫠🤪😵‍💫

We’ve been experimenting with Q on tennis using point-by-point history, surface and weather data.

Here’s what we’ve learned so far.

[matthew aka niftytime @niftytime]

the @QuotientHQ motto tbh

[hamster @hamstersender]

$QUOTIENT has finally started moving

$1m → $3m and somehow most of CT still barely talks about it

that's probably the part i'm most excited about

because usually you see a coin run first and then go looking for reasons to justify it

with Q i've been watching the product long before the chart woke up

it actually does something useful:

Q researches thousands of sources, prices prediction markets itself, finds where it thinks the crowd is wrong and gives you the edge + reasoning + exit

and the results so far are kinda scary

522 closed paper signals
64% win rate
+10.7% average paper return
obviously simulated performance ≠ guaranteed real profits, but there's enough of a track record now that you can actually judge whether the product works instead of taking the team's word for it
meanwhile Robinhood keeps leaning HARDER into the exact markets Q is built for

prediction markets are becoming a serious business for RH - event-contract revenue went from roughly $10m to $156m YoY in Q2 — and literally yesterday Robinhood announced another multi-year prediction-market partnership.

then you have agentic trading starting to become real too

imagine what happens if prediction markets keep exploding, agentic finance becomes an actual RH meta, and people finally start looking for the projects already sitting at the intersection of both

the market is finally starting to catch up to the thesis.

[matthew aka niftytime @niftytime]

@big_duca We waited 8 months since our pivot and about nearly 1.5 years since our initial launch to release our utility token $quotient for @QuotientHQ

Makes a world of difference tbh

Made us way more product and user value focused on the long build out phase

[Josh Hart @joshhart]

NY is the land of comebacks! Shoutout Big Foe!!

[Shira ❤️ @Shira_LES]

@igoryuzo lol mazels!

[Quotient @QuotientHQ]

@vladtenev @OG_com @cryptocom brb integrating

[Quotient @QuotientHQ]

📈 Quotient users are already making money trading perps with our signals. Over $22,000 in Q-forecasted profits so far

One example: a user made $200+ shorting ETH recently, informed entirely by Quotient's crypto forecast

Today Q is neutral on ETH, but when it flags bullish or bearish, you can act on it directly via Hyperliquid if you agree with Q's forecast

Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock crypto long/short signals on https://t.co/a7B4TrmdOn

[Quotient @QuotientHQ]

The Quotient Show is live 🎙️

Come join @shira_les and @amphib0ly as they cover tennis, a brand-new Quotient Signal, as well as what���s changed in Q’s oil outlook and what that could mean for USO, an oil fund you can follow on @RobinhoodApp

[Shira ❤️ @Shira_LES]

@CRUDEOIL231 @QSINTdesk what do you think about this? Does it align with your thinking?

[ruminations @amphib0ly]

Trade tennis in between sets with Quotient

[Quotient @QuotientHQ]

@amphib0ly @px_721 recent win https://t.co/ZB5hwouWoD

[ruminations @amphib0ly]

@QuotientHQ - forecasting intelligence for prediction markets and perps
- Dev previously built risk analytics products for financial institutions and government agencies
- 5.5% more accurate than Polymarket for geopolitics / global elections markets over the last 60 days
- Fine-tuned models for forecasting different market types