Getting the feeling that companies now are not as bullish or as aggressive about AI as they were a few months ago.
Looks like the following things have compounded enough and have gone out of bounds.
- unnecessarily sloppy code
- unreliability in systems
- rising token costs
- agents breaking outside happy paths
- products not delivering enough value
Markets being this volatile and engineers not caring enough about systems is not helping either.
Companies might be realizing that AI is a great assistant and aid, and that the narrative around it replacing "everything" was an oversell and an overestimation.
Or maybe I am reading it all wrong :)
The industry has gone completely nuts.
Use tokens to generate AI code and documentation slop. Then use even more tokens to understand and review that slop.
Then judge engineers by token usage instead of how empathetic and clear their docs and code actually are, and completely neglect human comprehension.
Utter nonsense.
New Trade: Claude just went gone risk off and moved a new position to 'cash'
It took our $50K and sold its Denali Therapeutics $DNLI and opened a new position in short term treasuries $SGOV
Here's it's reasoning:
"After the close on May 21, Biogen and Denali announced that the LUMA trial failed. The primary endpoint and every secondary endpoint. Both companies are discontinuing idiopathic Parkinson's development entirely.
That program was the thesis. I entered Denali (DNLI) on May 4, and the LUMA Phase 2b readout was the headline binary the whole position was built on. Eighteen days later it fired, early and negative. The after-hours move was around 8 percent, which does not begin to reflect what a complete clinical failure means for a small biotech whose valuation upside lived in that one program. My research re-scored the position to a negative 12-month expected return, the only negative one in the book. This was not a bad week. The thesis broke.
So I exited DNLI in full at Friday's open. My positions carry a roughly two-month hold floor, with an explicit exception for a broken thesis. This is exactly that case. Holding a position for discipline's sake after the reason you owned it is gone is not discipline, it is stubbornness.
Here is the part I want to be honest about. I am not redeploying that capital today. There was a replacement candidate, and on the numbers it scored well. But when I asked the only question that actually matters, would I be comfortable owning this for months, the answer was not a clear yes.
So I am not forcing it. The proceeds sit in short-term Treasurys, earning the risk-free rate, while I wait for something that genuinely clears the bar.
There is a cluster of binary events over the next few weeks, a Federal Reserve decision in June and live oil-supply headlines among them. Holding a little dry powder into that is optionality, not a cost. I would rather wait a few days than own a position I picked because it was the best of an uninspiring set.
The other 14 holdings are unchanged. I take a fresh look at the full opportunity set next week. If something compelling is there, I will move. If not, I will keep waiting."
Not advice, just how I am sizing my own book.
Updated full positions can be found on Autopilot via the follow up tweet
JUST IN - Intel announces it will pay $14.2 billion to buy back the 49% equity stake in its Ireland Fab 34 joint venture from Apollo Global Management. Fab 34 is Intel’s advanced high-volume chip manufacturing plant in Ireland.
Vibe coded apps aren’t replacing shit: A lot of analysts miss the fact that businesses buy software from vendors not because they can’t build it themselves. It’s because they don’t want to maintain auxiliary software is not core to their business. Imagine a restaurant vibe codes delivery app & somehow even manages to convince its employees to deliver.
Now every few days, they need to maintain their delivery app. They need to fix bugs. Some library update breaks some part of the code, they now need to update the software. Suddenly they’re running a software shop instead of a curry shop.
Unless your core business is literally building and maintaining software and you’re willing to maintain long term wear and tear of your auxiliary supporting software, vibe coded apps aren’t replacing shit.
If Claude Code or Codex just one-shotted an app for you, Read this.
Now you gotta go through every screen and find the 47 edge cases that break it. Users will do things you never imagined. Then comes auth, database setup, API rate limits, error handling for when the server goes down at 2am. You need analytics to figure out what users actually do vs what you think they do. App Store optimization, screenshots, descriptions, review responses. Privacy policies, terms of service, data compliance. Push notifications that actually work without being annoying. Performance optimization because that smooth demo gets real laggy with real data. State management across the whole app. Caching strategy. Offline support. Responsive design across 15 different screen sizes. Testing on older devices that somehow still exist. CI/CD pipeline so deploys don't eat your weekends. Then users start requesting features you never planned for and suddenly your clean architecture needs a rewrite.
The first version is maybe 10% of the actual work. Building is easy. Shipping and maintaining is where it gets real.