$UPST growing revenue over 40% YoY and their forward P/S is 1.9, forward P/E is 10, and their forward EV/S is 2.9. Ridiculously cheap !!! @HenryInvests@paulxgu
@billgrass1 Q3 revenue will be the first real milestone which I suspect could affect the special committee’s outcome. This is again reliant on news from AI compute vertical.
@YeolChoeju716 Excellent summary. Must wait for more details on AI compute business - power, offtake and partners. Challenging to achieve $18m-$22m guidance and timing must be right.
@YeolChoeju716 Bad quarter. More than 50% revenue ramp up in 2H is expected from AI compute vertical. Would have appreciated details here as mgmt comments sounded vague. Rudisill must provide more details here on how this will happen.
The @Rebellionaire Upstart Q2 2026 Earnings Review is here 📊
$UPST just posted an all-time high Contribution Profit while carrying two money-losing products still scaling toward breakeven. Read that again.
Inside the review: why I believe a FY26 topline revenue beat is coming, enormous pricing power within core, the foundation model for credit.
@paulxgu not bad for 100 days 😉
$UPST grew revenue 42% last quarter, the fastest Q2 in fintech so far. 95 cents of every revenue dollar was fees.
Quick look at the mix:
1️⃣ Fee revenue grew 45%, faster than total revenue. The interest and fair value line shrank to $17M as funding moved to third parties. This growth is fees on $4.2B of originations, up 50%.
2️⃣ Back to GAAP profitability. Net income of $16.5M, nearly triple last year. Record $193M contribution profit.
3️⃣ The cautions, from their own filings: guidance held flat with their macro index at the top of its range, and the 10-Q flags loan vintages from mid 2023 through early 2024, plus late 2024, tracking below target returns.
4️⃣ The next chapter: conditional OCC approval for a national bank charter came two weeks ago. FDIC and Fed still pending, launch targeted early 2027. Deposits are cheaper than marketplace capital, and I have tracked exactly what that difference is worth at another lender I cover.
@HenryInvests $UPST Upstart trades at 11.8 NTM PE today. Should rerate to better multiples as eps improves. Q2 showed acceleration in revenues. Second half should be even better.
@HenryInvests Totally agree. Great execution this quarter with increased revenues and GAAP profitability. $UPST . Strange it lost all gains yesterday but think this starts going towards $40 soon. Easing macro conditions will make this fly
$UPST Adjusted EBITDA came in extremely strong at approximately $76.9M
For me, this is almost more important than pure revenue growth. It shows the business model is scaling again.
Higher loan volume isn’t just driving more revenue, it’s translating into significantly stronger operating profitability.
Upstart is showing growth, funding confidence and improving profitability, while the potential banking license could become another major catalyst.
The slight EPS miss is a blemish, but the bigger story has clearly improved.
I think $50 is realistic from here, with $80 potentially on the table if the banking license comes through.
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$UPST Q2 transformative qtr. Record originations and revenue growth. Focus on margin expansion with right products and AI enabled efficiencies showing up in the numbers. Mgmt is making the right moves and stock will start trending upwards.
$UPST Earnings — Aug 5
★★★★☆ Beat, Guide Held. $364.7M (+42%), EBITDA margin back to 21%, originations +50% — but the FY guide sits below Street. The +15% AH squeeze faded to +3% today. Full note on the card.
#QQQ#SPX
Sikuli Research — educational, not advice.
WARSH: THE FED DIDN'T PAUSE, WE RIGOROUSLY REVIEWED THE SITUATION
i don't know what that means but SPY just turned green so let's keep rigorously reviewing the situation please
One of my biggest issues on here.
When stocks are rising, no one ever talks about taking profits and protecting capital and hands out ridiculous prices targets. Anyone who does is labeled a “idiot shill spreading FUD who doesn’t understand the company.”
When stocks are dropping, no one ever talks about buying at key levels because the bottom isn’t in and hands out price targets 20-50% lower. Anyone who does buy at key levels is an “idiot bag holder who couldn’t clearly see the decline”.
It’s the upside down.