Just as we warned in our previous letter:
"The question is not whether foreign investors will eventually sell their holdings? The question is when?"
This week, $BBCA lost around Rp77Tn in market capitalization. Historically, this ranks among the 5 worst weeks the stock ever recorded since IPO. One word, ruthless.
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As for the Prajogo group, the message appears equally clear.
"The issue with Prajogo related names is different. If the purpose of the nominee engineering was to eventually pass the bags to foreign investors, and that window is now closed, then ask yourself, who is left on the order book to buy? Prajogo himself? For what purpose? The answer is nobody."
The urgency to distribute holdings to retail investors is becoming increasingly visible. Intraday volatility in $TPIA has been extreme, with more than Rp5Tn changing hands in a single session.
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Our view remains unchanged, the bottom is not in. Since there is little room to express bearish views locally, future letters will spend more time exploring opportunities in global markets.
But first, we will be covering two topics that deserve attention, sovereign credit ratings and MSCI related developments.
Stay tuned!
#MeridianResearch