𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic

My opinions–not my clients'–on analytics and other stuff

I'm a freelance data scientist and commentator working in healthcare.

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

"What is the cost of lies?

It is not that we will mistake them for the truth.

The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we will no longer recognise the truth at all."

The first words spoken in HBO's Chernobyl but somehow strangely relevant right now.

[Matt Discombe @mattdiscombe]

The North West remains the epicentre of long A&E waits

Up to one in four patients wait 12 or more hours at some A&Es!

What is going on?

https://t.co/TTfcFPtRZy

[Truth In Numbers @Truth_in_Number]

@adrian1801 You should probably read the Ebola trial, before you post like an idiot.

• Fatality rate of Ebola Zaire: 66%
• Fatality rate of patients with Ebola Zaire treated with remdesivir: 53%

Reduced fatality rate 20%, didn't kill anybody.
https://t.co/lbpiVOzJQu

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@Kleinkatka @Melissa_S_Ryan Broadly, this argument is correct. But the real problem is multi-dimensional and the NHS chose to increase doctor and nurse numbers leaving little for capital, beds, support staff or managers all of which are bigger bottlenecks to activity or improvement.

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

When you start with the assumption that "more doctors" is a way of measuring health outcomes, it is impossible to have a rational argument about outcomes.

Outputs, performance and quality no longer matter.

[Dr Melissa Ryan 🦀 @Melissa_S_Ryan]

@sib313 @rwrazen Because doctors per capita is part of how one estimates health outcomes. The UK still remains behind OECD numbers.

You made a bold claim that the NHS is not ‘better’ with more doctors. So I asked you how have defined ‘better’ and what data do you have to back this claim up?

[Neil Pettinger @kurtstat]

@sib313 Yes, I think that phrase you used there - about "not noticing the need for action" - is one of my main criticisms of how the NHS uses control charts.

[Truth In Numbers @Truth_in_Number]

@ChildrensHD @SenRonJohnson Only complete fucking morons believe the word posted by Children's Health defense.

For that same reason only morons believe a word coming out of the mouth of RFK Jr.

The only question is, are you a moron?

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@GUnderground_TV Sachs' argument is just poorly informed. The USA isn't doing much to support Ukraine now and the weapons causing the most damage to Russia are developed and built in Ukraine. It is pure bullshit to claim it is a US driven war.

[Bjorn Lomborg @BjornLomborg]

How to manufacture a crisis:

A WHO commission wants to declare climate change a “global health emergency.”

Their big evidence? Rising heat deaths in Europe.

But once you adjust for an ageing society, the “crisis” essentially disappears.

Even more dishonestly, the report conceals that cold deaths have declined by approximately 250 times as much as heat deaths have risen.

https://t.co/8T5c9Hmesh

[Truth In Numbers @Truth_in_Number]

@BGatesIsaPyscho Wow illiterate dumbfuck fails to read article. Good job, @BGatesIsaPyscho.

Why don't you just post, "I'm a giant fucking moron" next time. You'd be saying the exact same thing as you did, only with little more honesty.

https://t.co/yRFfgIzZpT

[Prof Jeffrey S Morris @jsm2334]

@denisrancourt .

[Truth In Numbers @Truth_in_Number]

This makes absolutely zero sense. If they were defrauding the system, how, if they aren't making claims?

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@kurtstat B. Because if you leave out the target you can have a perfect process designed to consistently miss it and you will not notice the need for action.

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@ZiaYusufUK We don't screen men for breast cancer either. Is that sexist?

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

Yusuf proving that no amount of scientific evidence matters when a stupid populist political point can be extracted from a decision.

[Zia Yusuf @ZiaYusufUK]

On the day the whole political establishment claims we do not live in a two tier country, they announce this.

Note, the NHS makes NO drugs available exclusively to white people.

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@PedroOscarRCun1 @Anisocyte @Stephen83057086 @Melissa_S_Ryan Though a more complex analysis might conclude that lower admissions was a result of more productive A&E activity that avoided admissions.

A&E performance would be a better metric. That got much worse.

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@PedroOscarRCun1 @Anisocyte @Stephen83057086 @Melissa_S_Ryan That one is a little complex. The basic idea was that higher activity relates to better productivity. Their general analysis for most areas works that way. But A&E admissions are not primarily driven by capacity but by demand...

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@BowesChay Of course nothing like this could ever happen in the transparent, free, uncorrupt Russian democracy!

🤡🤣🤯

[Adrian Boyle @RCEMPolicyVP]

@sib313 @999Daedalus007 @2manypeople4me It's the four S's of planning: staffing, space, systems and stuff. Fixing one without fixing the other doesn't work well.

[Dr Dave Triska @dave_dlt]

My practice alone does >200,000 consultations a year.

20,000 is utterly negligible

[Truth In Numbers @Truth_in_Number]

@Jklunden Yeah, those numbers are completely made up, and are not from Pfizer zone data. They don't exist anywhere.

Valerie Anne Smith is a lying piece of shit, who posted a stupid meme she found somewhere, and anyone who believes her is a gullible sucker.

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@999Daedalus007 @2manypeople4me Also worth noting that bed numbers were falling in between 2000 and 2010 but activity and A&E performance rose sharply. The situation is different now.

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

Some conversations here are immensely frustrating. This response after a long thread including many examples abut NHS activity and performance which failed to respond much to the increase in doctor numbers...

[Dr Melissa Ryan 🦀 @Melissa_S_Ryan]

@sib313 @rwrazen Look. I’m going to stop this conversation now. When you have some data to back up your claim that ‘nothing got better’ with more doctors, I’m all ears. Good evening

[𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic @sib313]

@999Daedalus007 @2manypeople4me You confuse productivity with activity. Limiting productivity means more spending not less.

But yes, some wrongly think cutting beds limits spending. I doesn't when it causes huge amounts of corridor care...