sid

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Investors are worried about Oracle's credit:

Oracle's, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to a record ~203 basis points.

This means protection against Oracle's default now costs ~$203,000 for every $10 million of principal.

Oracle's CDS have more than QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, even surpassing the 2008 Financial Crisis peak.

The company’s borrowing costs are also rising, with the spread on its 6.7% notes due 2056 widening +8 bps on Monday, to 263 bps, and its 5.7% notes due 2036 widening +9 bps, to 205 bps.

Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB- on July 9th, just 1 notch above junk, citing its rapidly growing AI-related spending.

Oracle's credit risk is at crisis levels.

[Sarvesh Shrivastava @bloggersarvesh]

CEO of Nvidia: "I'd hire the graduate who's expert in AI over the one who isn't. Every time."

> he's not talking about someone simply using Claude.

> he's talking about businesses that made Claude their Chief of SEO.

> one person + these claude prompts

> does the work of an entire SEO agency

> $20/month vs $10k/month cost

> bookmark this. seriously. right now. 👇

[Chris Koerner @mhp_guy]

These guys make $3,000/night running one of the most unique businesses i've ever seen

And I've seen a lot of them.

Before I tell you what it is, (unless you just watched the video) This business is proof that anything can become a business

And anyone can start one.

"But all the good ideas are taken.."

FALSE.

If you believe that, watch this video on "plant bingo".

Yes, you read that right.

Regular bingo, but you win plants.

$35/ticket and you get a free plant. If you win, you get an even better plant.

Most locations let you host for free because you're bringing people in.

Have you ever gone to one of these? Probably not.

Which means you should start one where you live.

One game a weekend and you're making over $100k/ year.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Global M&A recorded a historic year:

There were 68 global M&A deals valued above $10 billion in 2025.

This nearly doubled from the prior year and exceeded the combined total for 2023 and 2024.

By comparison, the previous all-time high was set in 2015 at 62 deals.

These large transactions drove broader M&A activity higher, pushing the average annual deal size up +62% YoY, to a record $227 million, surpassing the high seen in 1999 of $225 million.

This also marks the 2nd annual increase in average M&A deal size.

Corporate dealmaking is hotter than ever.

[sid @sid_rao]

@ankurnagpal Pls do

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

You can't make this up:

Google now has a literal line item in their quarterly reports called "European Commission fines."

$10.5 BILLION as of September 30th.

The EU has become so heavily regulated that fines are a "normal" line item now.

What is happening in Europe?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What is happening here?

Over the last 48 days, the US Federal Debt has surged by +$1 TRILLION, or +$21 billion PER DAY.

Since August 11th, the US has added +$200 billion in debt.

Why is US government spending running at WW2 levels in a "strong" economy?

(a thread)

[sid @sid_rao]

@Jacobsklug @lovable Build

[sid @sid_rao]

@FedEx why not invest in a bunch of self service kiosks at your stores? Would lead to happy customers for sure. Took me 20mins to buy a piece of tape.

[sid @sid_rao]

@VictorLeeJW @ankurnagpal Calcs are based on fees over 10 years..

[sid @sid_rao]

@ankurnagpal 20pc management fee seems steep, 10x higher than the 2/20 model for hedge funds

[Jamie Coutts CMT @Jamie1Coutts]

Will AI agents use Tradfi or blockchain rails?

Blockchains seem custom-built for agents and payments, but traditional payment companies like Stripe are gearing up for an agentic future as well. Ultimately, consumers won't care what the backend is; they will only care about what delivers the best experience.

But I am curious to know if there are any dApps or chains that, today, allow agents to conduct onchain transactions autonomously based on a given intent that I can test?

https://t.co/BO6m6wwHzd

[sid @sid_rao]

@mhp_guy Sorry for your loss

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Interest rate futures are literally pricing-in a recession while the Fed says they have likely avoided one.

Interest rate futures are now pricing in 8 Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, the most since 2008.

History says that more volatility is coming for equity markets.

[sid @sid_rao]

@Pmgraham86 @jasondebolt 12.3 still has phantom braking issues..hopefully gets better as more ppl download!

[sid @sid_rao]

@mhp_guy They probably have 3-4 territories at least to get to that revenue?

[sid @sid_rao]

@tferriss Congrats Tim! Long time listener of the pod! Be self reflective and call out the best advice that has worked vs not without singling out anyone!

[sid @sid_rao]

@qatarairways I’m being charged a cancellation fee for my booking despite the phone agent from the airline canceling the reservation within the 24 hour window. I should be allowed a full refund within 24hours per US DOT rules. Can you please investigate?

[sid @sid_rao]

@APompliano King Richard hands down for new movie releases!

[sid @sid_rao]

@NorthRockLP Thanks for sharing. What happens to few revenue on ETH when rollups take transaction volume away? The 10x earnings multiple would likely inflate, at current prices.