sam sikes

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

Exactly. Right now there are no choices. Everyone says, “oh the 30 year mortgage prices off the 10 year.” Well that’s not really true, because if it did, the 10 year to mortgage spread would not be 240 basis points. It would be 60-100 basis basis points. It’s pricing off the short end. Banks borrow short and lend long. With a flattish yield curve the short end has as much or more bearing than the 10 year.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

I feel like this ignores buying them back well below par, and also likely working with fed to limit supply of long duration. The fed owns a huge percentage of the long end. If you felt (controlled) short rates were coming down it would be a smart trade to take these out of circulation.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@StockOrbitX @grok is this true?

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@tttaner40 @rabois @nejatian @mikealfred @ericjackson Pretty sure he cannot buy. Only khosla fan

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@gnoble79 At what point in your career did you become a total c*cksucker?

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@aronpricepga Nope

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@fried_egg_golf Greatest feat in the history of golf.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

I typically agree that ongoing sbc is an expense, but in the case of opendoor today, the vast majority of the SBC in the earnings is not only unvested, but also significantly out of the money from being vested. The stock price must double from here and stay there for even the first tranche to vest. The rest doesn’t vest until the stock 3x,5x, or 10x between now and 2030, but it is mostly being amortized over the next 2 years regardless of these facts. You are recognizing $780 million of expense that doesn’t fully vest until $30 billion of economic value is created. So, in this case, I personally don’t view the sbc to be an expense even though it’s being treated as such.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@maelan_sdmr If they are continuing to have purchase contracts of 600+ (and going to 1000) homes per week, you have to imagine they plan to sell the same amount. 600*52*395000 =12 billion+.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

10% weekly growth, that they mentioned multiple times would be 75 billion cumulative miles by the end of 2028. If that growth held, it would imply ~1.5 million units on the road which is certainly commensurate with their production capacity. This is probably the ramp they are looking at.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@signulll @wholemars What does it say about Tianamen square?

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@HLTCO @grok where is this?

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@Pikithome You have to be one of the dumbest people on x.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

I am long the neoclouds space, including IREN, but I feel like posts like this are conflating industry metrics. Saying it has ARR is really a software metric, which doesn’t seem appropriate for an infrastructure project. Additionally EBITDA and EBITDA margin seems to leave out a pretty important expense which is depreciation. How do you square those? Honest question.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@DrCamRx @grok what are the implications of this for @hims

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

The FCF argument is so stupid. What’s truly amazing is that we have multiple companies in the USA who can commit hundreds of billions of dollars per year in capex out of FREE CASH FLOW. The fact that they can even do this without much debt shows you how far ahead the USA is in its ability to build this out. No one else can do this.

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@garyblack00 The tax credit was extended for “orders placed” before the end of Q3, not just deliveries. Do we have any sense of how many orders there were as in Q3 and not just deliveries? Isn’t it possible that they deferred a lot of orders in Q3 to Q4 and could blow out the number?

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

@elonmusk @grok

A suggested update to the interface for grok on the iPhone:

Move the “think harder” button to a different location on the screen.

I am a frequent grok user and I inadvertently press the think harder button when trying to read answers to my questions. This is bad for 2 reasons. 1. It’s annoying when you are reading an answer to have it go into think harder mode where you have to wait 30 seconds or more for an answer, and 2. It probably wastes a ton of computing power to reason on a question that I didn’t need reasoning on.

I’m sure I’m not to only one this happens to. Thanks!

[sam sikes @sikes69415]

It makes sense that google would help them list. The MLS is a racket. Real estate is one of the largest addressable markets on earth, but you need real scale.

Also, just thinking about this….the game here is to “make the market” for housing. Google and google ventures could create a funding vehicle for tens or hundreds of billions of dollars for opendoor to acquire more homes, so it’s a bigger market and then start taking critical share….market the homes directly on google. Google gets a pref plus some equity….or buys equity….and boom….90% of the work is done

@ericjackson @kianejatian @nejatian @rabois