Simon Mayer

keeping what matters unhedged

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@ScottPh77711570 @therobotjames How do you build a big position in an illiquid alt? horizon 1-3 months.
- volume-based participation?
- urgency based on distance to target / opp cost of waiting?
- how do you tell your own impact from normal price movement?
- when do you stop being passive and cross the spread?

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@CBGSpender Es wird ja nicht der Sterbende besteuert, sondern der Empfänger, der dafür nichts geleistet hat. Besser als fast jede andere Steuer allemal. Irgendwas muss der Staat ja schließlich besteuern. Dann noch am ehesten Einkommen, das ohne eigene Leistung (des Erben) erzielt wird.

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@DsrPrivate Don’t trade options myself - does max short equities mean just topping back up to your previous max short as these marked-to-worst puts are effectively worthless, or are you going more short equities than anytime since January’s max short?

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@AMAZlNGNATURE @AarontheB

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@mango_macro @WarrenPies @cullenroche @dampedspring Interest rate relative to projected future currency depreciation to be more precise

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@WarrenPies @cullenroche @dampedspring Currencies don't exist in a vacuum but compete with each other. Intl savers flee currencies with low interest rates, which weakens fx rate, which imports inflation. MMT ignores that effect(see Turkey). Pls confirm/refute. Economics newbie here looking to see if I got this right.

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@DavidVJanny @MacroAlf Only if the steepening is due to the short end going down. Not if due to the long end going up.

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@dsmudger @Zero22350 @GaskellAttorney @Plinz Yup. Game theory doesn't work out if everyone can choose. Every rational actor would join a jurisdiction that allows max freedom (to exploit others) in the hope that his neighbors aren't allowed to exploit him. End game is that everyone chooses max freedom jurisdiction (anarchy)

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@MikhailaAleksis You're doing what Shapiro did in his BBC interview - projecting something into it that isn't there. Arte (French/German TV station) is known for unbiased two-sided documentaries and this is an add intended to spark curiosity. Maybe dfrt communicative styles in US/CA and EU.

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@girishpie @paulkrugman He is talking about the bond market specifically. Difference in yield between regular T-bond and inflation-protected T-Bond = the bond market‘s guess for future inflation. This is an important signal because these traders have skin in the game.

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@NewmanJ_R Sure, I agree with all of that. Still doesn't make sense to say one is counterfeiting and the other is not. I appreciate you taking the time to engage by the way, helps me understand the Austrian position more.

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@NewmanJ_R What’s the fundamental difference between a bank deposit and a bond? Why is a bank deposit that is not backed by reserves “counterfeiting” and a bond is not? Both are promises to pay (on demand VS at a fixed point in the future).

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@NewmanJ_R But those who get the new money will be forced to produce something in the future to pay off their debt, which is socially beneficial.

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@NewmanJ_R Net money creation comes with externalities - negative (potential devaluation of already existing money units --> bad for current holders) and positive (growing economy --> good for everyone). Overall, positives outweigh imo. @cullenroche @TheStalwart would love your opinion!

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@NewmanJ_R Replace "money" with "any asset" in that sentence and it is still true imo. Why should it be bad in the case of money but not houses, cars, food etc? Are you arguing for not creating new stuff anymore? 🙃

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@jordanbpeterson You’re wrong. https://t.co/nLziDyi4uj

[Cullen Roche @cullenroche]

Great news everyone. Shadow Stats is officially debunked. The whole thing is based on a basic math error.

Yes, inflation is complex and we shouldn't downplay its negative impact, but we also shouldn't spread outright statistical nonsense.

https://t.co/B3gykNPNtQ

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@GultenHatay @jbhearn Aha, so excess deaths are caused by overmedication and intubation, not Covid. Why do you think people go to the hospital in the first place? Just for fun and then the doctors intubate them for fun and then they die, even though they were healthy before?

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@GultenHatay @jbhearn Terminology doesn’t matter, excess deaths do. Even if it’s just a deadlier version of the flu, that’s still bad. Also, according to your theory excess deaths should be lower than official Covid deaths. The opposite is true:
https://t.co/Wc2jfI4F7h

[Simon Mayer @simnmayer]

@jbhearn I see your point. I’m all for smart solutions and I hate the current situation. I guess it’s just really hard to isolate a specific group 100%. So you need to keep Covid levels of the healthy low too.