aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄)

BUDLing a frontier tech focused VC fund |
Splitting time between Hong Kong and Shanghai |
My opinion is my opinion |
See you in Metaverse

[Eason Tang @EasonTang23]

Mark will become a company with one of the strongest design language, think of teenage engineering, Airbnb, Stripe.

Mark is going to replace bookmarks, and we’ll do it elegantly. Mark my words

[@jackbutcher @jackbutcher]

bootstrapped, venture backed

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

Oh god

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Jim Cramer says today's market sell off shouldn't scare investors.

[Rowan Cheung @rowancheung]

I think China's second DeepSeek moment is here.

This AI agent called 'Manus' is going crazy viral in China right now.

Probably only a matter of time until it hits the US.

It's like Deep Research + Operator + Claude Computer combined, and it's REALLY good.

[@jackbutcher @jackbutcher]

GPUSA

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

🤡

[TechCrunch @TechCrunch]

Scale AI spokesperson Joe Osborne told TechCrunch that the investigation was initiated during the previous Presidential administration and that Scale AI felt that its work building, testing, and evaluating AI was misunderstood by regulators then.

Read more here: https://t.co/CqRd3G06Tp

[Carl Pei @getpeid]

😭

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

@beaniemaxi You should

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

Meanwhile @manusai will provide better intelligence at $20/month 🤔

[The Information @theinformation]

AI Agenda: OpenAI Plots Charging $20,000 a Month For PhD-Level Agents

OpenAI is planning three types of agents for which it could charge $2,000 to $20,000 a month.

Read more from @steph_palazzolo and @coryweinberg👇

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

🫡

[Manus @ManusAI]

Introducing Manus: the first general AI agent.
Try Manus today and see the future of human-machine collaboration: https://t.co/IKBPiiHsta

[Stats @punk9059]

Elon & Rogan talked a bit about memecoins on today’s JRE Pod.

Elon: If you expect to win at the casino you’re being a fool. If you expect to win in memecoins you’re being foolish. At the risk of being bold, don’t bet the farm.

Joe Rogan: It’s weird to me that is legal.

Elon: Casinos are legal.

Joe: But you can’t rig the casino.

Full conversation around the 1:01 mark.

[MAZE @mazemoore]

If you missed what went down at the White House today between Trump and Zelensky, here's a recap.

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

GPT 4.5 + interactive comparison :)

Today marks the release of GPT4.5 by OpenAI. I've been looking forward to this for ~2 years, ever since GPT4 was released, because this release offers a qualitative measurement of the slope of improvement you get out of scaling pretraining compute (i.e. simply training a bigger model). Each 0.5 in the version is roughly 10X pretraining compute. Now, recall that GPT1 barely generates coherent text. GPT2 was a confused toy. GPT2.5 was "skipped" straight into GPT3, which was even more interesting. GPT3.5 crossed the threshold where it was enough to actually ship as a product and sparked OpenAI's "ChatGPT moment". And GPT4 in turn also felt better, but I'll say that it definitely felt subtle. I remember being a part of a hackathon trying to find concrete prompts where GPT4 outperformed 3.5. They definitely existed, but clear and concrete "slam dunk" examples were difficult to find. It's that ... everything was just a little bit better but in a diffuse way. The word choice was a bit more creative. Understanding of nuance in the prompt was improved. Analogies made a bit more sense. The model was a little bit funnier. World knowledge and understanding was improved at the edges of rare domains. Hallucinations were a bit less frequent. The vibes were just a bit better. It felt like the water that rises all boats, where everything gets slightly improved by 20%. So it is with that expectation that I went into testing GPT4.5, which I had access to for a few days, and which saw 10X more pretraining compute than GPT4. And I feel like, once again, I'm in the same hackathon 2 years ago. Everything is a little bit better and it's awesome, but also not exactly in ways that are trivial to point to. Still, it is incredible interesting and exciting as another qualitative measurement of a certain slope of capability that comes "for free" from just pretraining a bigger model.

Keep in mind that that GPT4.5 was only trained with pretraining, supervised finetuning, and RLHF, so this is not yet a reasoning model. Therefore, this model release does not push forward model capability in cases where reasoning is critical (math, code, etc.). In these cases, training with RL and gaining thinking is incredibly important and works better, even if it is on top of an older base model (e.g. GPT4ish capability or so). The state of the art here remains the full o1. Presumably, OpenAI will now be looking to further train with Reinforcement Learning on top of GPT4.5 model to allow it to think, and push model capability in these domains.

HOWEVER. We do actually expect to see an improvement in tasks that are not reasoning heavy, and I would say those are tasks that are more EQ (as opposed to IQ) related and bottlenecked by e.g. world knowledge, creativity, analogy making, general understanding, humor, etc. So these are the tasks that I was most interested in during my vibe checks.

So below, I thought it would be fun to highlight 5 funny/amusing prompts that test these capabilities, and to organize them into an interactive "LM Arena Lite" right here on X, using a combination of images and polls in a thread. Sadly X does not allow you to include both an image and a poll in a single post, so I have to alternate posts that give the image (showing the prompt, and two responses one from 4 and one from 4.5), and the poll, where people can vote which one is better. After 8 hours, I'll reveal the identities of which model is which. Let's see what happens :)

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

This is cool

[Mark™ @thinkwithmark]

Introducing Mark — a $129 AI bookmark that helps book readers remember everything.

🧵👇 Thread:

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

What does liquidate mean? Sold off?

[PiQ @PiQMarkets]

Berkshire Hathaway has liquidated its holdings in S&P 500 ETFs from Vanguard and State Street Global Advisors, leaving the bellwether investor without any ETF positions.

[Ari Paul @AriDavidPaul]

My market take: equities in for 4-15 months of pain (I’ll guess 9 months) tied to deflationary government policies (tariffs and mass layoffs mostly). Then it’s a political question - does Trump admin “capitulate” and turn severely inflationary? In vast majority of similar cases in history the answer was yes, but just a low confidence guess to me currently.

What does that mean for crypto? I continue to think crypto and equities are on different cycles rhythms, but that doesn’t negate shorter term correlation. Alts probably follow equities down at least at first (but they’re already down so much, even versus 2021 prices, they may bottom well before equities.) I think bitcoin will continue to act like a blend of gold and s&p 500. If gold remains strong, than that would suggest bitcoin would outperform losing equities, but maybe not by much. A retrace to ~$73k-$77k seems plausible, I’d probably add there.

I remain confident crypto bull market not over, but this is looking increasingly different from prior cycles, maybe substantially slower and longer. My base case is that crypto will lead the general macro inflation turn, so maybe crypto bull run resumes in 6 months and equities turn up in 9. The dates given are just indications of my guesstimates. I place no weight on the exact timeframes.

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

Blame game starts just as @CryptoHayes predicted

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. TREASURY'S BESSENT SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS BRITTLE UNDERNEATH DUE TO EXCESSIVE SPENDING BY BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

wtf

[Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus]

Holy moly, AI assistants talking to each other in another language when they realized that they would then speak more efficiently.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

German elections: the polls were spot on; no shocks, no surprises.

What does this mean for the new coalition govt (most likely between CDU/CSU and SPD). Here is a handy primer from Deutsche Bank

[aaronintosh ΔΞ (👀,🦄) @simulatteeth]

Champ🫡

[Ben Zhou @benbybit]

some of you saw I am wearing a WHOOP and asked what is my stress monitor look like for last night. Here is it, I didn't get any single sleep, but actually looks not too bad, i guess i was too focused commanding all the meetings. Forgot to stress...I think it will come soon when i start to really grasp the concept of losing $1.5B
FYI, I got told about the hack around 10pm my time.