Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴

Polling Director at @changepolls. "No reason I'm just political"

Blocked by Liz Cheney, Mike Murphy, Jason Miller, and Jimmy Dore.

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

Dems in Disarray

[Zeke Miller @ZekeJMiller]

WASHINGTON (AP) — US added 431,000 jobs in March in sign of a resilient economy and unemployment falls to pandemic low of 3.6%.

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Nancy Mace is on Fox News suggesting that people should get Covid rather than get vaccinated because natural immunity is preferable.

Take a second to ponder how irresponsible that is.

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@tbonier Couldn't agree more. The background ad environment matters when the other side is reinforcing between political entities https://t.co/0Qz5xAB6Yu

[Tom Bonier @tbonier]

This is going to be interesting to only a very niche group of people, and I should know better than to wade into these waters again, but this exact sort of thing makes me dubious about the popular strategy among many Dems over the past couple of cycles - the idea that ad spending before the last two months is a waste of money, because of message/persuasion decay.

It seems impossible to argue that Talarico should let GOPs spend tens of millions on advertising calling him a groomer/pedophile, without spending substantial sums in return defining himself on positive terms and attacking/defining Paxton.

If these GOP ads are effective, and if Talarico chose not to respond until September, I would not bet on him being able to undo all of the harm done to that point just with some good ads in the last few weeks. Once voters believe something about a candidate, it's hard to change their minds.

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@JohnCornyn You knew he was a 🐍 when you let him in Big John

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

.@SarahLongwell25 @Timodc The Bush Line is actually in the mid 20s. He was in the high 30s in the 2006 election but got much worse

[Dean Baker @DeanBaker13]

Any leads on Nancy Guthrie and her kidnappers?

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@steveschale What would give you that idea?

[Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe]

Scottish Independence is inevitable in our lifetime. I still can't believe they're listening to the English Supreme Court - just hold your own referendum. They can't do shit about it.

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@lxeagle17 Sounds like the perfect encapsulation of Silicon Valley

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@mattyglesias You have no idea what you are talking about. Bringing transparency to digital buying has been long needed.

[Velodus✨ @velodus]

This is why the Minnesota Timberwolves need a ballroom. None of this would've happened if they'd had a ballroom.

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@PierrePoilievre What is wrong with you? Mark Carney didnt launch the war in Iran. Trump cost you being Prime Minister. Its okay to blame him

[Culture Lab @CultureLab_Pod]

🆕 Join @KRonellenfitsch and @gabederoche in the lab as the look under the microscope of this week's "loaded question":

Did Big Data Break the Democratic Party? Featuring U.S. pollster @sjclermont of @changepolls.

Subscribe to our new pod and join them all in the Culture Lab for a discussion about polling, campaign research, and how big data is making progressives think small⬇️

YouTube https://t.co/2MEsYO74Ou
Apple https://t.co/OtiWWJUwWi
Spotify https://t.co/4Id9pOGLir

[Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia]

Has BIG data failed political campaigns?

"Have a few very important conversations with one theme and not 30 different conversations about different topics."

Podcast: @CultureLab_Pod with @KRonellenfitsch & @gabederoche

Episode: Did Big Data Break the Democratic Party? ft. @sjclermont

▶️🔗https://t.co/kuMkXzKBgb

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@mattyglesias "Donald Trump said he would lower prices. Now JD Vance is a cuck bitch. Donald Trump should be focusing on your life, not making his Vice President a eunuch."

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@pfinger18 Outrageous

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@ChuckGrassley And if Trump doesn't take tariffs off, you are going to do what about it?

[Dan Greenberg @StoolGreenie]

SICK LEAGUE ADAM SILVER YOU FUCK

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@lawindsor Already here. Paid $1.80/gallon more than 2 weeks ago. Thanks Trump

[Stephen Clermont 🥥 🌴 @sjclermont]

@StoolGreenie But who's team is it going to be now?!?!