sohail khan

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@SaleemFarrukh @nawabasadjutt @digdebate It can’t, so what’s your point?? The variable cost is simply not competitive, (even if you consider the fixed expense sunk), esp when you layer political risk on top of that.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@bubbleboi That’s the business model of Firmus and Sharon AI

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@satyanadella That ROIC is at the project level ie assuming equity invested in the project at par. Because everyone’s stock has rallied so much that’s akin to buying the 39% ROIC equity at a massive premium.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

So what? ROIC assumes the invested capital, if the stock has rallied that effectively means the equity investment was greater by that amount which massively dilutes the IRR / ROIC. This is akin to having an initial $100mm project with 70:30 debt to equity and you then sell the $30mm equity to public investors at $90mm (ie the stock rally). On the $90mm the ROIC is a fraction.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@Rashidlangrial National advancement are driven by a mix of culture, necessity and reward systems. You don’t need to go to Spain to see that, plenty of proof in Pakistan - capture and easy money breed societal decay.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@saylor Giving a $99-100 range on STRC is a mistake. Will only encourage the markets to test and probe.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@CJ_Bitcoin @Strategy “Adaptability” - BTC used strategically moving forward ie pref purchases to put a floor under them on the way

[sohail khan @skhan72]

Reframe BTC ownership from a dogmatic commitment to hold to a strategic asset where you will use its liquidity to create shareholder value during dislocations. You have a perception problem, not a solvency issue - draw a line under solvency by selling $1bn of BTC to build a strategic reserve to buy parts of the capital structure when dislocated. You won’t need to spend a dime, people just need to know you have a bazooka to change perceptions.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@bas3dp0tat6 Horrible comparison, Coinbase did not have a liquid asset on their balance sheet that covered multiples of its liabilities.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

All he needs to do is put out a statement like this (hypothetical) and move from dogmatic to opportunistic BTC ownership:

“Strategy Announces $1.0 Billion Capital Raise for Opportunistic Buybacks

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) remains a long-term net acquirer of bitcoin. Our strategy, however, is disciplined, not dogmatic: our goal is to maximize value per share, and we will pursue it by the most effective means available to us.

To that end, we have raised $1.0 billion this week and may, from time to time and at our sole discretion, repurchase our common or preferred securities, acquire additional bitcoin, or pursue other actions we believe increase value per share. We are under no obligation to take any of these actions and may modify or discontinue them at any time.

We will fund any such actions from the most accretive source available, which may include the measured sale of bitcoin. We regard our bitcoin as both a core reserve asset and a source of strategic liquidity that allows us to act decisively when we believe our securities are mispriced.”

[sohail khan @skhan72]

All you need to do is put out a statement like this (hypothetical) and move from dogmatic to opportunistic:

“Strategy Announces $1.0 Billion Capital Raise for Opportunistic Buybacks

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) remains a long-term net acquirer of bitcoin. Our strategy, however, is disciplined, not dogmatic: our goal is to maximize value per share, and we will pursue it by the most effective means available to us.

To that end, we have raised $1.0 billion this week and may, from time to time and at our sole discretion, repurchase our common or preferred securities, acquire additional bitcoin, or pursue other actions we believe increase value per share. We are under no obligation to take any of these actions and may modify or discontinue them at any time.

We will fund any such actions from the most accretive source available, which may include the measured sale of bitcoin. We regard our bitcoin as both a core reserve asset and a source of strategic liquidity that allows us to act decisively when we believe our securities are mispriced.”

[sohail khan @skhan72]

All they need to do is put out a statement like this (hypothetical) and put a floor under it by moving from dogmatic to opportunistic:

“Strategy Announces $1.0 Billion Capital Raise for Opportunistic Buybacks

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) remains a long-term net acquirer of bitcoin. Our strategy, however, is disciplined, not dogmatic: our goal is to maximize value per share, and we will pursue it by the most effective means available to us.

To that end, we have raised $1.0 billion this week and may, from time to time and at our sole discretion, repurchase our common or preferred securities, acquire additional bitcoin, or pursue other actions we believe increase value per share. We are under no obligation to take any of these actions and may modify or discontinue them at any time.

We will fund any such actions from the most accretive source available, which may include the measured sale of bitcoin. We regard our bitcoin as both a core reserve asset and a source of strategic liquidity that allows us to act decisively when we believe our securities are mispriced.”

[sohail khan @skhan72]

All they need to do is put out a statement like this (hypothetical) and move from dogmatic to opportunistic:

“Strategy Announces $1.0 Billion Capital Raise for Opportunistic Buybacks

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) remains a long-term net acquirer of bitcoin. Our strategy, however, is disciplined, not dogmatic: our goal is to maximize value per share, and we will pursue it by the most effective means available to us.

To that end, we have raised $1.0 billion this week and may, from time to time and at our sole discretion, repurchase our common or preferred securities, acquire additional bitcoin, or pursue other actions we believe increase value per share. We are under no obligation to take any of these actions and may modify or discontinue them at any time.

We will fund any such actions from the most accretive source available, which may include the measured sale of bitcoin. We regard our bitcoin as both a core reserve asset and a source of strategic liquidity that allows us to act decisively when we believe our securities are mispriced.”

[sohail khan @skhan72]

All they need to do is put out a statement like this (hypothetical) and move from dogmatic to opportunistic:

“Strategy Announces $1.0 Billion Capital Raise for Opportunistic Buybacks

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) remains a long-term net acquirer of bitcoin. Our strategy, however, is disciplined, not dogmatic: our goal is to maximize value per share, and we will pursue it by the most effective means available to us.

To that end, we have raised $1.0 billion this week and may, from time to time and at our sole discretion, repurchase our common or preferred securities, acquire additional bitcoin, or pursue other actions we believe increase value per share. We are under no obligation to take any of these actions and may modify or discontinue them at any time.

We will fund any such actions from the most accretive source available, which may include the measured sale of bitcoin. We regard our bitcoin as both a core reserve asset and a source of strategic liquidity that allows us to act decisively when we believe our securities are mispriced.”

[sohail khan @skhan72]

All they need to do is put out a statement like this and move from dogmatic to opportunistic:

Strategy Announces $1.0 Billion Capital Raise for Opportunistic Buybacks

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) remains a long-term net acquirer of bitcoin. Our strategy, however, is disciplined, not dogmatic: our goal is to maximize value per share, and we will pursue it by the most effective means available to us.

To that end, we have raised $1.0 billion this week and may, from time to time and at our sole discretion, repurchase our common or preferred securities, acquire additional bitcoin, or pursue other actions we believe increase value per share. We are under no obligation to take any of these actions and may modify or discontinue them at any time.

We will fund any such actions from the most accretive source available, which may include the measured sale of bitcoin. We regard our bitcoin as both a core reserve asset and a source of strategic liquidity that allows us to act decisively when we believe our securities are mispriced.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@Bkclaims Post-petition interest is likely to continue because the (1) creditor is oversecured (§506(b), post-petition interest up to the collateral value), and/or (2) the solvent-debtor exception. No?

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@dampedspring You should be using par value on the debt / prefs not market value.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

What is the path to BK? $6bn of debt and $50bn of (volatile) collateral? Drop downs hurt marginally when you can only raise 20% LTV against melting BTC and there is a stopper on dividends. Sure they can (and will likely) cut the dividend. This is more illiquid, PIKing (eventually) money good risk rather than a complete punt, esp because time is your friend. 20% IRR makes sense.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

What is the path to BK? $6bn of debt and $50bn of (volatile) collateral? Drop downs hurt marginally when you can only raise 20% LTV against melting BTC and there is a stopper on dividends. Sure they can (and will likely) cut the dividend. This is more illiquid, PIKing (eventually) money good risk rather than a complete punt, esp because time is your friend. 20% IRR makes sense.

[sohail khan @skhan72]

@kieranwgoodwin Subordination would actually be more than 30% in that instance since it’s always based upon loan par value