@JosephTMetcalf@abaxx_tech A small but perhaps symbolic turn around. The share price (chart) is following standard shorting momentums. Expect a sharp recovery then another pullback towards the lows. Patience.
@jkenney Just to clarify, a patriot is a person who loves, supports, and feels a deep devotion to their country. While Americans express patriotism loudly through overt symbols and flag displays, Canadians express it quietly through social solidarity and community support.
Matthew Smith has spent the last 18 months modeling every well, pipeline, storage facility, and power plant in the American natural gas system.
His conclusion is that the US is heading toward a natural gas shortage with no precedent, beginning in 2028.
By 2030, he believes we could exhaust our working natural gas storage entirely.
The fuel everyone in AI is counting on, and that everyone assumes is abundant, is not there.
And because gas sets the price of electricity in most of the country, he argues Americans will pay for the shortage in their power bills.
Matthew has worked in energy markets for over 20 years and is the CIO of Chronometer Partners.
This is his second time on the show, and he's one of my favorite people to talk to about energy.
We discuss:
- Why the bottleneck is moving from power to fuel
- Why we can't just shut off exports
- 2028 as the inflection point
- Large-scale nuclear v. SMRs
- Who wins, who loses, and what can still be done
Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:30 What Drives the Deficit
11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up
20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis
25:05 Winners and Losers
29:00 Nuclear and Solar
33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill
37:20 AI’s Next Shortage
45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes
51:15 The Coming Gas Knife Fight
I have criticized conservatives who blame Canada or the Carney government for Donald Trump’s erratic, bad faith attacks on our economy & sovereignty.
It’s even more absurd to blame a provincial government, as the NDP does below.
Canada is not to blame.
Neither are our provinces or their governments.
We have been good neighbours & great trading partners.
When called upon, we have been reliable allies, as in the global war on terrorism in Afghanistan.
Are we perfect? Of course not.
But for every reasonable trade grievance the United States has with us, we have many more with them (tariffs on softwood lumber, steel & aluminum, etc., ag import quotas, Buy America provisions, etc.) That’s what trade negotiations & agreements are designed to balance. The last time we signed a comprehensive trade agreement with the United States, Donald Trump call it “the best trade deal ever.”
Does the US have some legitimate national security concerns with Canada? Yes, but they pale in comparison to the massive northward flow of illegal drugs and firearms (up to 90% of gun crimes committed in Canada involve smuggled US firearms.) Allies & neighbours work through those issues, as we did in the post 9/11 period with major legislative & operational changes to improve continental security.
Have our political leaders provoked these constant, irrational attacks, like the latest 50% tariff threats? Of course not. If anything, they have been restrained and diplomatic in the face of constant threats to our sovereignty, and attacks on our economy. (Recall that on January 7, 2025 Trump said he would use “economic force” to annex Canada.)
Is it legitimate to criticize how Canadian leaders are dealing with the constant threats from Washington? Of course, we’re a democracy. But it is absurd to blame Canada or Canadian governments for the constant lies, disparagement, attacks, and threats.
Opposition parties have a right & responsibility to offer constructive criticism on how governments are managing this crisis, but within a broader context of national unity that transcends brain dead partisanship.
@jkenney This is bruising to my and others Canadians ego, but is it a battle worth fighting over as we cannot change what lays south of us? We need to focus on what we can change and move on. Business needs the bridge open.