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[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

We recorded a momentum thrust off the 2023 correction, 2025 mini-bear, and the 2026 correction.

Highly abnormal to have this many momo thrusts and at ATHs...We have argued these v-shaped rebounds are a feature of the "debasement regime."

[Eason Mao☢ @KELMAND1]

当你看着 AI 改 bug 就是这种感觉…

[One @smallwinz]

@stevehou ok, sillier math here, 1T revenue from coding, assume each engineer replaced cost 200k. that is 5 million engineers. So by that time, every one's fired. Who's paying for the whole economy.

[One @smallwinz]

@Rory_Johnston @TommyCIII Since price isn’t behaving as predicted, we should consider other factors, like the price that would stress the US or Asian economy. Gov’ts likely analyze it this way and manage around that line, though whether they let it get too close or it surpasses that line is another matter

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

The AI capex cycle is reshaping the US economy along a single fault line: proximity to the buildout.

Capital is flooding into hyperscalers. Everything else is being starved.

This is not a bubble debate. It is a structural bifurcation. The cohort paying for it is not who you think.

🧵

[One @smallwinz]

Hi @macrostratpb I've submitted my add request

[K.AI @Kai866]

中国网友用张艺谋做特朗普TACO解释视频太搞笑了😂

[One @smallwinz]

@EconstratPB It seems like the days when bonds were used to protect against stocks are over. Now, commodities tend to move in the opposite direction of bonds, making them a different way to hedge stocks.

[One @smallwinz]

@EconstratPB Trump can offer Iran sanctions relief and other concessions that might appeal to the Iranian people. However, this doesn’t always align with the ruling class. That’s the challenge in reaching a deal without regime change.

[One @smallwinz]

@BlacklionCTA @EconstratPB @mmm_btus Didn’t JD have an all-weather like portfolio where everything is equally weighted? This demonstrates his thought process, even if it’s influenced by regulatory pressures.

[One @smallwinz]

@EnergyPeddler Iran expressed their distrust in the Americans. However, the only genuine trust they could have is that the severe impact of high oil prices has left such a lasting impression that no one is willing to attempt it again for the foreseeable future.

[EconstratPB @EconstratPB]

https://t.co/g18AlRqZBO

[One @smallwinz]

@Jesse_Livermore Don’t forget Israel. Israel cares more about nuke. US cares more about SOH. But Iran won’t give up both bargains.

[One @smallwinz]

@EconstratPB The tariff talk with China went well from the first round. Both sides are happy. Will this follow the same pattern?

[One @smallwinz]

@EconstratPB I believe the peace talks will eventually succeed. However, Iran has the luxury of time. Demanding that Iran relinquish both Hormuz and its nuclear program is likely to take significantly longer, if not indefinitely.

[One @smallwinz]

@mtrainier2020 还有你有几个想法。先做了A， 不喜欢，然后做了B，也不喜欢。这时候我想摘取A里面完成的C加上B里面完成的D。其他去掉。很烦。人的话是可以做到的，而且很快。机器很可能是重启炉灶快。

[One @smallwinz]

@EconstratPB @toiletkingcap Is it possible in the long run American industry recovery benefits from a high equilibrium in oil price? Just asking. Like insteadjng of catching up we are slowing others down.

[One @smallwinz]

@Jesse_Livermore will Iran still insist removal of US bases or use Chinese Yuan to transact?

[Vryx ⚡ NightFlame @VryxNF]

An excellent explanation of the impact of market makers’ positioning using the JP Collar trade. A must-see.

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

How I trade with dealer gamma data

https://t.co/TimiQiJb9b