otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats

Integrity, power, love, embodiment, presence

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@danielbrottman I think it's more nuanced than that. AI facilitates higher production value memes that previously wouldn't have been made at all. It's an evolution of the format, e.g. below which I personally enjoyed a lot
https://t.co/y8dCNnY6vF

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@neats29 Did you catch all the ice throwing discourse the last few days? Very relevant and most people totally missing the point of moving emotions

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

People love to frame this kinda insight in dramatic binary terms of "a tunnel" or "if you don't have X by age Y it's over"

The boring steelman is: at every age, your choices shape your future life

You can turn it around at any time and you can fuck it up at any time

[Moses Kagan @moseskagan]

My experience of life so far:

You enter a tunnel at ~15 & it shoots you out at ~35 & the rest of your life is largely determined by the choices you made & the luck you had in the tunnel.

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

Also the way it's proved impossible to shorten so people literally have to say "I'll ask Chat-G-P-T" every time

[Daniel @growing_daniel]

The most crushing thing I've learned in the last five years is that branding does not matter. "ChatGPT" are you kidding me

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@Aella_Girl The superlatives are a bit Trumpian

"We know of no other organization which considers feedback more carefully"

"Soryu Forall is scrutinized the most out of anyone in the organization"

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@justalexoki Cmon bro surely it triggers your bullshit detector enough to not obliviously share it without doing a 30 second due diligence :(

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@VW_Manu @Alicia_Bittle_ 1) that article is about India, not the UK

2) of course the pamphlet is fake and 2 mins of research would confirm this

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@yishan @11Architect11 @pangram It's cute how they use all-lowercase as if that's gonna make it less obvious

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@CrispyWicks https://t.co/5EbcNLmDgt

"modernity in its current form seems largely incompatible with replacement-level fertility"

[QC @QiaochuYuan]

this is a very sobering read. main thesis is in section 5:

> Our conjecture is that a modern society makes the third child expensive and childlessness cheap, even when GDP per capita is only a fraction of the frontier (i.e., the U.S. level). Children are expensive because a child must be equipped to function in a world of formal knowledge and credentials, which takes years of costly investment (Restuccia and Vandenbroucke, 2013, Doepke and Zilibotti, 2019). At the same time, children are no longer productive in the household, not even for smaller chores, having been replaced by “engines of liberation” such as the electric appliances now available even to poor households (this idea extends the intuition in Greenwood et al., 2005). Modernity also imposes tight career schedules, set by large-scale organizations, that collide with the biological clock and with the kin networks that used to share the work of raising children (Adda et al., 2017, Compton and Pollak, 2014). And modernity makes childlessness cheap, because an impersonal society imposes next to no penalty on those who have no children: pensions and health care do the work that sons and daughters once did (Boldrin et al., 2015), and lineage counts for little.

> Goldin (2026) pushes this line further with an argument about a growing mismatch between genders. Modernity also changes gender roles unevenly. Women’s opportunities expand rapidly through education, work, and greater independence, while expectations about housework and childcare often change more slowly (Goldin and Katz, 2002, Goldin, 2021). This is particularly true as economies shift toward services, where women’s comparative advantages are better rewarded (Ngai and Petrongolo, 2017). The mismatch operates at both the extensive and the 18 intensive margins: more women remain childless, and mothers have fewer children on average.

> This argument is attractive because it explains why East Asia and now Latin America have such low TFRs. These are the societies where the gender mismatch is largest.19 It also suggests an intriguing possibility: societies with highly unbalanced gender norms start with very high TFRs, as men impose their preferences (Ashraf et al., 2014), and end with very low ones, as women resist (Doepke and Kindermann, 2019, Doepke and Tertilt, 2018). A paradoxical reversal of demographic fortunes.

...

> In short, modernity in its current form seems largely incompatible with replacement-level fertility.

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@CrispyWicks It has nailed you, but actually *everyone* is having fewer children, not just high income educated people. See QC's thread from today

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@kenthecowboy_ yeh it's impossible to see her full context from behind a screen. Just sharing the steelman for this kind of exercise and how I do it

also every self-help tool can & will be misused by someone to perpetuate their existing patterns, cf manipulative therapy-speak etc

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@kenthecowboy_ Fact is that when a lot of people are very angry, they are simply unable to express their anger in a clean way

Maybe that's OK in some situations e.g. with a partner who you have a lot of trust with

But it's not good in many other situations e.g. with your kids

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@kenthecowboy_ I hear you but I don't think the move is supposed to be "throw a tantrum in the bathroom and then pretend to be fine with the thing that made you mad"

It's "throw a tantrum and move the anger so that you can come to clarity & better deal with the thing that made you mad"

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@justalexoki 20% boyfriend to 10% boyfriend

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@relic_radiation Quite easy to go a whole day and spend time only in places that have been designed with some agenda in mind. Even if we're not explicitly aware of it, I think it affects us

Natural spaces don't have an agenda for humans

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@relic_radiation I like to think about the agenda that a place has for us as humans.

Many/most places we go in a city have an agenda. Malls, restaurants, cafes all want us to spend time and money. Streets want us to stay on the pavements, wait for the green light, etc etc

[Michael Ashcroft @m_ashcroft]

I shall write more soon, but I am happy to say that my new course, which is a comprehensive replacement of the old one, is done and now released to the world

it is called Applied Presence: Foundations

may the world like and benefit from it

https://t.co/GHzsyr4ILq

[Aaron Bergman 🔍 @AaronBergman18]

So I have come into a pretty unusual situation

If you (or someone you know) might be interested in purchasing/licensing a genuinely unusual, large dataset (including content that, as far as we can tell, is no longer acquirable at any price) please reach out over DM!

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

Interested in more personal AI stack posts from people I follow 👀

[Richard D. Bartlett @RichDecibels]

my current AI setup for personal productivity...

- inbox manager: "I have 15 minutes, please triage all my inboxes and tell me which messages to focus on right now and what I can defer to later"
- relationship database that has a small amount of context on everyone I interact with, so I can for example say "who should I talk to about this upcoming men’s retreat”
- curated all google docs to create a useful map of both my businesses, key clients, offerings, market landscape, value prop, etc etc etc
- projects database: my personal view into all the projects I am responsible for, listing my next actions, what I am waiting on from others. projects are categorised by "tempo", e.g. I only need to think about bookkeeping once a month, but for some projects I want to be interrupted immediately if there is new activity
- projects check-in / stand-up: "let's run through all my projects in order of urgency, I'll share any updates, you remind me of my next tasks"

so for example if I get a DM from a client saying "how will the budget change if we make the retreat a day shorter?", it can identify the client is the same person in Whatsapp and email and google docs, it knows how we make budgeting decisions, and it can generate 80% of the answer without any input from me. (I only give read-only access to messages, generally I prefer to write in my own voice)

or I can just say "what do I need to deal with today" and it has a pretty good answer 90% of the time.

[otis in Bali 🌞 10/100 beats @sokindling]

@visakanv You're gonna have so much fun as your kid starts asking more and more (and more interesting) questions