Chris Macke

28 year finance veteran analyzing: Financial markets; Job and wage growth drivers. Corporate tax policy. Global trade. Author, Solutionomics

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@steelbridgecap @CBRE The key is that the 10 year Treasury is only one factor, which explains why cap rates can increase when T’s are declining and decrease when rates are increasing…the risk premium is THE key.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@IvanTheK @andrewrsorkin Very informative.

Alternative to Carried Interest:

Determine each PE firm’s tax rate based on the jobs it created:
Create jobs, pay a lower tax rate.
Eliminate jobs, pay std income tax rate.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@Michael_MBA Idyllic

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@Michael_MBA At the property level: Real estate, unlike FIXED income, can have income increase, offsetting at least to some degree a possible increase in interest rates and/or cap rates. At the security level: All comes down to capital flows.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 Fundamental narratives break down when there is enough money to push pricing of all assets higher (and in this case bond yields lower) at the same time. Is like playing Monopoly and quadrupling the money you are playing with - all asset prices go up, railroads, Park Place etc

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 The key transitory question is whether supply chains inability to keep up with demand is transitory. IF the Fed decides it is not, then they will have to respond.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 That’s not going to help inflation! How long will the Fed accept higher inflation before it responds as they would have in the past ie raising rates in response to supply/demand imbalances driving up inflation.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 With China seeing increasing COVID cases and durable goods demand nearly 30% above prepandemic levels, inflation pressures could increase before they lessen.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 Add in durable goods consumption up nearly 30 percent vs pre-COVID levels and that will create some port log jams and inflation!

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 @johnauthers Lower wage individuals generally spend more of their marginal income (MPTC) increasing GDP through increased consumption driving company sales and eventually hiring to keep up with the increased demand driving further wage growth.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 Is it because they are soooo flush with cash? IF it is, then just another sign too many dollars chasing too few investments.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 The rules may be ignored fir a time, but they remain in place much like you can defy gravity for a time, only to return to earth.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 @macrocredit If we are, it is misplaced. Delta + Full Football Stadiums + Colder Weather and more time indoors = Not at peak or a lull followed by a resurgence

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 Highly recommend, “The Great Influenza” by John Barry.
Uncertainty regarding COVID and its impact on economy is significantly greater than expressed by market valuations.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 You have a lot of company! Yes, 2% to be transitory. IF current rates of inflation are due to a. base effects b. supply chains not running at full capacity and needing to catch up then will be transitory i.e. temporary.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 Will they next underestimate the impact of Delta variant and be downgrading?

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@rothstein_jesse @delong Indeed! I write about this in Solutionomics.
Community colleges are also the best ROI.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@carolmassar Happy 4th to you too Carol and ty for keeping us so well informed.

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 Unsustainable politically. The question will be: Who/what does the 80% and bottom third blame in 2022?

[Chris Macke @solutionomics]

@lisaabramowicz1 ***VELOCITY IF MONEY*** is the key.